Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 12/5

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Hornets vs Nuggets 9:10am AEST

Bookies were pretty quick to bring this one down after he’s been hanging around 19.5 for the last week or so but there’s still some value here. We know that Borego does not like going deep into his bench in games, often playing 8 man rotations and right now there are just better players than Jalen. A big way that would help Jalen was if PJ was playing more at the 5 which would open up some minutes at the 4 for Jalen but up against Jokic they probably aren’t going to be able to do that. Rozier is headed for big minutes, LaMelo is back playing 30+, PJ has played 36+ in 4 of his last 6, Monk has worked back into a 20 minute a night role and now Devonte is also back in the mix. The minutes have to come from somewhere as all these guys have earned time over Jalen. Hornets will likely be playing from behind in this one so am expecting they use some more offence oriented groups.

• Jalen McDaniels UNDER 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 0.7 units

Heat vs Celtics 9:40am AEST

Super important game for both teams here which should set up a nice game environment with studs all playing big big minutes. Kemba and Jimmy both pushed 40 minutes last game while Tatum was at 38, Fournier 35, Ariza 35. Expect something similar here. A little dirty I’ve had both Jimmy and Fournier’s line’s move overnight as I was close to locking them in then. Want some exposure to this game so just putting together a little multi with B365.

• Jimmy Butler over 35.5 PRA / Evan Fournier over 24.5 PRA / Trevor Ariza over 16.5 PRA @ 6.00 with B365 – 0.4 units

Mavericks vs Grizzlies 10:10am AEST

This is a more than reasonable line for the much better team. Fair bit is against the Grizzlies here. After the slow start to the season the Mavs have really turned it on and have the 5th most wins since the break with the 4th best net rating. They’ve been even better on the road where they are 12-5 with a wild league high +10.6 net rating (2nd best is Blazers +6.1). Grizzlies on the other hand really haven’t taken advantage of games at home this season where they are just 15-18. They’ve been getting murdered on b2b’s as well with a -5.7 net rating on the season. They’ll also be without JV and JJJ today, and JV has been a huge part of their team this season with a team 2nd +7.1 on/off differential. Both

• Dallas Mavericks -3.0 @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit

Kings vs Thunder 12:10pm AEST

Nice line here for Harkless who’s been very good his last few games. Went off against OKC last time out with 18/5/3 in just 25 minutes and today there is no Bagley. He’s been really active on the offensive end and playing with a pass first guy like Delon against a terribly bad OKC defence means he should get some easy cuts throughout as well as some uncontested 3s. Supporting stats usually show up for him and there should just be plenty of stats for all the Kings guys today. Like these low PRA lines for guys who are set for big minutes and can contribute in all 3 categories.

• Moe Harkless over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Moe Harkless over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 3.5 units out

• Jalen McDaniels UNDER 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 0.7 units
• Jimmy Butler over 35.5 PRA / Evan Fournier over 24.5 PRA / Trevor Ariza over 16.5 PRA @ 6.00 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Dallas Mavericks -3.0 @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit
• Moe Harkless over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Moe Harkless over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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