Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 12/3

Season Results:

• 203 Wins / 422 Losses
• 91.07 Units Profit
• +27.09% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Raptors vs Hawks 11:40am AEST

A little surprised to see this line come in so low here coming off the ASB. Before the break, he played 15 minutes against Miami then 20 minutes on a b2b against the Magic. It’s quite rare to see guys coming back from long injuries get their minutes bumped up on the second night of a b2b so they must be feeling pretty good about where his knee is at. He’s now had an extra week of recovery and gets a really nice matchup here against the Raptors who are still missing a bunch of guys due to the COVID protocols. They allowed 129 & 132 in the 2 games before the break. Hawks are still missing Reddish and Hunter so there are plenty of minutes available for him on the wing and I think we can see him get up to around 28 here. Last season in 28.9 minutes he averaged 15.1/3.4/3.4, and 14.1/3.5/3.8 the season prior in 27.8 minutes. His minutes and production have both been down this season but should get his chances here and a nice matchup. Little bit of exposure to the alts here as incase he can push closer to 30 minutes and he can get hot in a hurry. Had back to back 27 PRA games earlier in the season. It’s a smallish sample, but in 115 minutes without Hunter and Reddish he has a 15.6/4.7/3.7 per 36 line.

• Bogdan Bogdanovic over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.7 units
• Bogdan Bogdanovic over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.3 units

Ugh. Wrote this up before they announced his minutes cap would be taken off and now the only place to get some exposure is through the Ladbrokes markets.

• Bogdan Bogdanovic over 14.5 Points @ 3.10 with Ladbrokes – 0.5 units

Magic vs Heat 12:10pm AEST

Didn’t back him last game as I wasn’t sure how the minutes were going to be split between Olynyk and Precious but it was Kelly who got the lions share playing a team high 36:44. He was awesome and like most guys in the league, gets a really nice production bump switching from the 4 to the 5 as he’s used in PNR actions a ton more. Going back to last season, he had a really nice 17.1/9.2/4.5 per 36 line playing at the 5 in a 376 minute sample. There isn’t really as much of a sample this season at just 85 minutes, but he’s posted a solid 12.2/9.3/3.8 per 36 line which still fairly comfortably clears this line. Matchup isn’t the best but the role is going to be great and Spo did give Kelly and Precious a bit of overlap last game as well which increases his minutes floor significantly. Unlikely he goes 4/5 from deep again here but really shouldn’t have to if the boards and dimes can come up again for him which they should as he created a nice 9 potentials last game (7 dimes) and we know Miami run a ton of DHO so could very easily rack them up if one of his shooters get hot.

• Kelly Olynyk over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Kelly Olynyk over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Kelly Olynyk over 3.5 Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Kelly Olynyk over 5.5 Assists @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Wolves vs Pelicans 12:10pm AEST

He’s very hard to trust so it’s just a small bet here, but this just sets up nicely for him on a few fronts. Finch had a very interesting comment saying he’s going to really tighten up the rotation coming out of the break and with McLaughlin out for this one too it means we could see Ricky push right up into the mid 30s as they just don’t have any other PG options. Comes up against the 29th ranked defence here in the Pels. He has 2 20 point games in his last 8, so we are getting a nice price here.

• Ricky Rubio over 19.5 Points @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

His minutes have been all over the shop but with Redick missing NAW should be locked in for a decent role in what is an awesome matchup. He’s a high usage guy at 22.8% and has been quite productive this season when given chances, with a 16.8/4.5/4.8 per 36 line. He won’t see that many minutes, but he got up to 23 last game JJ missed against the Heat finishing with a strong 13/3/4 line. Have to note that the previous game JJ missed, he only played 16 minutes which I think would be his absolute floor here. He has paths to minutes at either guard position and it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him in 3 guard line-ups. This Wolves team is trash and have been getting blown out consistently so there’s a very good possibility we see some garbage time here where NAW could clean up.

• Nickeil Alexander Walker over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.1 units
• Nickeil Alexander Walker over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 3.7 units out

• Bogdan Bogdanovic over 14.5 Points @ 3.10 with Ladbrokes – 0.5 units
• Kelly Olynyk over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 units
• Kelly Olynyk over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Kelly Olynyk over 3.5 Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Kelly Olynyk over 5.5 Assists @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Ricky Rubio over 19.5 Points @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Nickeil Alexander Walker over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.1 units
• Nickeil Alexander Walker over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
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