Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 11/5

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Grizzlies vs Pelicans 10:10am AEST

We have a 182 minute sample of Hayes without Zion and Ingram on the court this season and he’s been great averaging 0.91 PRA per minute. No Adams again today should put him in line for mid 20s which more than covers this. He’s just full of confidence with both Zo and Bledsoe really trying to get him involved. He’s coming off 30 PRA and 26 PRA games and I really like this matchup for him in what should be a very fast paced affair with both of these teams in the bottom 5 for possessions in the half court over the last 10 games.

• Jaxson Hayes over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.91 with Topsport – 1 unit

Bucks vs Spurs 10:40am AEST

Absolutely hate this matchup for the Spurs both offensively and defensively. Offensively, they rely so much on Demar and Dejounte getting into the paint which has resulted in them having the 2nd highest percentage of their points coming from 2 point range at 58.8% (Wiz 1st). Bucks defensively philosophy is the give up 3 pointers and protect the paint, as they give up the 3rd most 3’s and the 3rd fewest PITP. Spurs are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the league, with the 5th worst 3pt% at just 34.0 since the break, while taking the second fewest attempts at 26.8. On the other end, Spurs have been shutting down teams from 3 giving up the 4th fewest 3 point attempts since the break, but getting smoked in the paint giving up the 5th most points. There are going to be driving lanes open all day for Giannis and he should be in for a big night. They are only 0.5 games behind the Nets so expect them to try win out from here. They get the extra week off while the play-in games are on so Bud shouldn’t be too fussed about extending the starters.

• Milwaukee Bucks -7 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit

Warriors vs Jazz 12:10pm AEST

Have to bet this at the price. I am actually a little surprised the Warriors are dogs here, as they have been playing some awesome basketball with the leagues best defence over the last 15 games as well as the leagues best net rating at +9.0 (Bucks 2nd 8.0). It is pretty impressive as only 6 of the 15 games have been at home, where they are 5-1 with a +10.1 net rating. To their credit, the Jazz have been good without Conley and Donny but they haven’t exactly been versing the strongest opposition with wins over Kings, Raptors, Spurs x2 and Rockets, with their last 5 wins all coming at home. They did have a nice win against the Nuggets in that stretch which has to be mentioned. The Jazz have a pretty ridiculous home record for the season at 31-4 with a +13.4 net rating, but they have been nowhere near as dominant on the road with a 19-14 record and +4.7 net rating. Warriors have the Grizzlies right on their tails for the important 8th seed so expect them to be very locked in here in what should be a fun one. Over the last 15 games since Wiseman got hurt, Draymond averages 11.4 dimes in wins, vs just 7.4 in losses. He had a 12 dime triple double in a win in their previous meeting. His potentials were WAY up over the last 2 games at 21.5 despite just playing a couple of 4th quarter minutes. Should be set for a full workload here.

• Draymond Green 10+ Assists / Warriors win @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Golden State Warriors ML @ 2.11 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units

Staking Plan – 3 units out

• Jaxson Hayes over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.91 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Milwaukee Bucks -7 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Draymond Green 10+ Assists / Warriors win @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Golden State Warriors ML @ 2.11 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
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