Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 11/2

Wizards vs Raptors 11:10am AEST

Season Results:

• 150 Wins / 270 Losses
• 94.01 Units Profit
• +41.18% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Wizards vs Raptors 11:10am AEST

It’s not the greatest matchup here against the Raptors, but I feel pretty confident about his minutes after both Brooks and Beal talked him up after their win against the Bulls. I’ve got him conservatively around the 22 minute mark, so we are getting a nice edge if he can maintain his 0.85 PRA per minute output, with some definite minute upside too. In the back to back set against Miami, he played 24,27 minutes and he managed to get to 20 minutes against the Bulls last game even after bring plagued by foul trouble. He’s played 17+ minutes 6 times for the Wizards, and covered this in all of them so as long as the minutes are there we should be good here. If he’s going to get to 15 points, he’s going to need minutes and will get his rebounds too. Would prefer alt PRA lines but this works.

• Alex Len over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Alex Len over 14.5 Points / over 5.5 Rebounds @ 14.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Really have to have something on here. He looks to have found a bit of rhythm knocking down 4 triples in his last game against the Bulls. It was well and truly a season high in minutes for him as Brooks was using him at both the 4 and the 5 finishing up at 37. Beal mentioned after the game how having Bertans out there made it a ton easier for him to run PNR so think we might see him log a similar number in this one. Although he’s been really sub par this season shooting just 33.1% from behind the arc, he’s still jacking up shots taking 11.4 3’s per 36 (only 12.9 FGA per 36 which is pretty wild). Raptors 3 point defence hasn’t been good this season down at 20th and he can get hot in a hurry.

• Davis Bertans over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 4.20 with TAB – 0.2 units

Siakam has been wildly inconsistent over his last 7 games since returning from injury so really can’t back him with much confidence, but he’s shown his upside with 4 30 point games in that span (other 3 were all 15 or under). Gets a great matchup here against the Wizards so he could be set for a big night and we need a little exposure.

• Pascal Siakam over 29.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Pascal Siakam over 34.5 Points @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Hawks vs Mavs 11:40am AEST

This could be absolute smash for Capela. They just played 2 games against the Warriors with Draymond playing at centre who isn’t a scoring threat, so some of the season numbers have come down but they still give up the 4th most points to centres and allow 1.13 PPP to the roll man (was up at a league high not long ago). Capela really struggled in his matchup with Gobert going just 3-14 but bounced back strongly against the Raptors with 23 points in just 28 minutes. They are seriously feeding him down low both in PNR and with post ups as he has a league high 13.2 paint touches over his last 9 games. With some of the front-court back healthy there likely isn’t the minute upside for him, but he will be heavily featured when he’s out there and is capable of having big games. A little hard to trust right now as his offence is pretty inconsistent and he only had 10 points when they met last week, but we have to have a bit on as the Mavs are capable of giving up huge scoring games to centres.

• Clint Capela over 19.5 Points @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.3 units

Pacers vs Nets 12:10pm AEST

Would be putting out a full unit here if we got 5.5 and I’m a little concerned after he was down to just 19 minutes last game after playing 25+ in 4 straight before that, but the spot is awesome for him and he can earn his way into the closing line-up. Nate mentioned after the game against the Pels that he thought the second unit deserved more playing time, so it was a little bit of a surprise to see him play just 19, although he wasn’t too effective in his minutes going just 2-9 from the field. He’s so ball dominant and should thrive against this Nets defence as we saw Delon slice them up yesterday. Has had some crazy games over the last few with a 15 dime game (23 potentials) the highlight against the Pels. So much upside for him as Brooklyn allow the 4th most assists to PGs. Should be a big spot for Sabonis too but line has moved dramatically overnight.

• TJ McConnell over 6.5 Assists @ 2.00 with B365 – 0.3 units
• TJ McConnell over 9.5 Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• TJ McConnell over 11.5 Assists @ 21.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Grizzlies vs Hornets 12:10pm AEST

Hornets have been prioritising protecting the paint all season but Jonas is in absolute smash mode at the moment and Zeller can be a bit shaky defensively so happy to bet he can keep it rolling here. Didn’t back him last game as I was a bit worried they might take a while to ramp him up, but he played 33 minutes so it looks like he’s over his COVID and should see a similar workload here in this one. Been an absolute beast since returning with a team 2nd 25.2% usage rate (Brooks 28.5% lol), with back to back 20 point games averaging 25/13.5 in just 28.5 minutes. Even though they prioritise the paint, they’ve still given up some big lines to centres and in the top half of points allowed, as well as getting killed on the glass giving up the 4th most to centres.

• Jonas Valanciunas over 29.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Jonas Valanciunas over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.3 units

Bucks vs Suns 2:10pm AEST

Big big role change for Middleton without Jrue. Poor from me as it was pretty obvious last game how it was going to play out and we missed some good lines, but still more than happy to launch at him here as the role was even better than I was expecting. Middleton has a 72 minute sample this season without Jrue and Augustin and is averaging a huge 10.9 dimes per 36 (8.9 per 36 just without Jrue in 158 minutes). We saw how much a role change can benefit guys with Donny over the last 2, and it’s a very similar setup here with Middleton as he slides across to assume the PG role. His touch time almost doubled last game up from 3.7 to 6.3 and he looked awesome getting his team-mates involved finishing with 12 dimes from 23! potentials. It is not as nice a match-up for him here but the role is just too good.

• Khris Middleton over 6.5 Assists @ 2.00 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Khris Middleton over 9.5 Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Khris Middleton over 11.5 Assists @ 19.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Another big beneficiary of Jrue missing is Donte. He’s consistently been around the mid 20s minutes this season, but they are really going to need his defence against the strong Suns back-court. Forbes and Augustin don’t offer much on that side so we should see Donte play into the 30s here (played 31 last game against Nuggets). In that Nuggets game he was good, finishing with a very strong overall line of 13/7/2/3/2. Donte gets a nice 3.3% usage bump without Jrue and saw plenty more on-ball opportunities last game with his touch time up from 1.7 to 2.8 minutes. Strong per 36 line without Jrue for the season at 15.1/7.6/4.4. Gets an extra 1.2% usage bump with Augustin off the court too.

• Donte DiVincenzo over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.92 with Topsport – 1 unit

Thunder vs Lakers 2:10pm AEST

Still kicking myself on the poor read last time SGA and Maledon both missed backing Kenrich over Diallo but hopefully can make up for a bit of that here. Thunder only have 8 available guys, so everyone’s going to have to play a ton. The last game Melodon and SGA missed was against the Wolves, so coming up against the Lakers here is a brutally different task so I’m not overly keen on backing any of these heavily but there could be some value, especially if it blows out early and Lakers just cruise. Diallo had a whopping 5.7 minutes of touch time (up from 2.1) in that game but got super lucky with 10 dimes from just 12 potentials. He’s the main bet here as I feel decent about him playing garbage time too. Points line is high enough so just taking his dimes.

• Hamidou Diallo over 5.5 Assists @ 3.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Hamidou Diallo over 7.5 Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

Horford was another big beneficiary almost doubling his touch time up to 3.4 from 1.8 on the season. He finished the game with 8 dimes from 14 potentials, in just 29 minutes. Don’t feel as good about him getting his full minutes here but he’s going to be super busy while he’s out there.

• Al Horford over 5.5 Assists @ 3.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Al Horford over 7.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 8.0 units out

• Alex Len over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Alex Len over 14.5 Points / over 5.5 Rebounds @ 14.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Davis Bertans over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 4.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Pascal Siakam over 29.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Pascal Siakam over 34.5 Points @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Clint Capela over 19.5 Points @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.3 units
• TJ McConnell over 6.5 Assists @ 2.00 with B365 – 0.3 units
• TJ McConnell over 9.5 Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• TJ McConnell over 11.5 Assists @ 21.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Jonas Valanciunas over 29.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Jonas Valanciunas over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Khris Middleton over 6.5 Assists @ 2.00 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Khris Middleton over 9.5 Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Khris Middleton over 11.5 Assists @ 19.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Donte DiVincenzo over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.92 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Hamidou Diallo over 5.5 Assists @ 3.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Hamidou Diallo over 7.5 Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Al Horford over 5.5 Assists @ 3.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Al Horford over 7.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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