Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 10/2

Season Results:

• 150 Wins / 270 Losses
• 94.01 Units Profit
• +41.18% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Pistons vs Nets 11:10pm AEST

Really can’t be over exposed here as he’s coming into the game with a questionable tag after the double OT game against the Lakers, and this game has a very good chance of blowing out, but the spot against the Nets defence is too good to pass up on. No Rose, DSJ or Frank Jackson today should mean he gets mid 30 minutes (providing the game stays close). His shot has been wildly inconsistent, but may have a bit of confidence after going 8-10 and 4-4 from deep last game. The rebounds and assists almost always show up, but the upside will likely come from the scoring.

• Delon Wright over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Delon Wright over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 15.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Spurs vs Warriors 12:40pm AEST

Taking a little risk here that Draymond doesn’t suit up, as from memory every time he’s been listed questionable the day of a game he’s ended up sitting. Wouldn’t at all surprise and I thought it might be the case as this is their 3rd game in 4 nights and he’s been playing huge minutes as the Warriors have been so shorthanded. It’s just such a big void to fill for the Dubs on both ends of the court and we saw how bad they were to start the season getting absolutely torched by the Bucks and the Nets by 25+ points. They did work a few things out to get wins over the Bulls and Pistons, but the Spurs are a different level of opposition. The numbers are there to back it up offensively, with the Warriors being +9.4 PP100P with Dray on the court (team 2nd after Steph 11.8) and although they are about the same defensively, it’s pretty clear how impactful he is. Over the last 4 games since he’s moved to centre, the Warriors are 36.9 PP100P better offensively with him on the court which is a team high. Not sure how the Warriors expect to get any stops here if Paschall moves into the starting line-up. Their front-court rotation would be a mess. On the other end, Spurs have been far better since Jakob has moved into the starting lineup. He has a team 3rd +16.6 on/off net rating differential while Aldridge is down at -11.3. Definite chance they limit Curry’s minutes in this one too.

• San Antonio Spurs -1 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1.5 units

Already quite exposed here, but if Draymond does sit it’s going to mean probably close to 40 minutes for Juan. He’s not a super productive player, but he’s looked decent and he’ll get all the burn he can handle. He’s got a nice per 40 line of 10.2/9.4/4.0 for the season including grabbing double digit boards in both his last 2 games. Will probably come back to this and bet again if Draymond does get ruled out, but just getting something on the nice odds here for now.

• Juan Toscano Anderson Double Double @ 6.75 with B365 – 0.3 units

Jazz vs Celtics 2:10pm AEST

The role for him couldn’t have been any better last game with a whopping 8.0 minutes of touch time. Definitely got a little bit lucky with 11 dimes from just 14 potentials, but 4 of them were easy ones around the rim to Rudy (against the best PNR man defence in the league allowing just 0.84 PPP to the roll man). Another tough matchup here, as Celtics are bottom 3rd but they do allow 1.06 PPP to the roll man. Roll is too good to ignore here and he should be right up near the 38.5 minutes he played last game in what should be a close game here as well. He posted a 32.6% usage rate taking a season high 25 shots, but was terribly efficient making just 9 of them. Still managed to get himself to 27 points and he’s certainly capable of big scoring nights. He’s going to be super busy here.

• Donovan Mitchell over 5.5 Assists @ 2.02 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 7.5 Assists @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 9.5 Assists @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 34.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportbset – 0.2 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 39.5 Points @ 20.00 with Sportbset – 0.1 units

Ingles line’s have come down a bit as he finished with just the 3 dimes last game, but he saw a massive role increase as well with 4.5 minutes of touch time up from his season average of 2.8. Got super unlucky with just 3 dimes from his 13 potentials so there could be a little bit of value on him today if him and Rudy can get their PNR going.

• Joe Ingles over 7.5 Assists @ 4.20 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Joe Ingles over 9.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Blazers vs Magic 2:10pm AEST

His touch time since AG went down has sky-rocketed up to 7.7 minutes over his last 3. He’s still not playing great but I really like this matchup for him and Vooch today. They just run so much PNR and it creates a ton of good catch and shoot looks for Vooch so they are pretty highly correlated as if Vooch gets hot like we saw in game one against the Bulls then he can rack up the dimes quickly (he had 9 through 3 quarters in that one). Kanter seriously struggled in the PNR and it’s reflected in the numbers as the Blazers allow the 8th most PPP at 1.17. As mentioned I like this spot for Vooch, but it’s hard to back that high a number in a game that could blow out. Cole played a ton of garbage time in that b2b spot against the Bulls so can feel a bit more confident about him getting his full burn.

• Cole Anthony over 4.5 Assists @ 1.71 with B365 – 1 unit
• Cole Anthony over 7.5 Assists @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Cole Anthony over 9.5 Assists @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 5.7 units out

• Delon Wright over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Delon Wright over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 15.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• San Antonio Spurs -1 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1.5 units
• Juan Toscano Anderson Double Double @ 6.75 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 5.5 Assists @ 2.02 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 7.5 Assists @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 9.5 Assists @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 34.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportbset – 0.2 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 39.5 Points @ 20.00 with Sportbset – 0.1 units
• Joe Ingles over 7.5 Assists @ 4.20 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Joe Ingles over 9.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Cole Anthony over 4.5 Assists @ 1.71 with B365 – 1 unit
• Cole Anthony over 7.5 Assists @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Cole Anthony over 9.5 Assists @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
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