Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 10/1

Season Results:

• 41 Wins / 66 Losses
• 12.57 Units Profit
• +18.57% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Hornets vs Hawks 11:10am AEST

“Been awesome the last few games, really attacking when he gets the chance and is shooting full of confidence. He’s averaging 21 points over his last 3 in 33.0 mins, but he is shooting 63.9% from the field and 57% from 3 which isn’t sustainable. Hasn’t been up against the toughest defences but gets another easy matchup here against the Hornets so he can keep things rolling. The rebounding has been a nice surprise from him this season, averaging 7.3 over his last 6. He had been around the 30-33 minute range for his previous 4 games, so it was nice to see him get rewarded for his strong play and get up to 37 against NY.” This was my write up the other day when he got the cash for us easily with 17/6/5. He’s now covered this in 6 of his last 7 (20 in other). Hawks played terribly in that game and they catch the Hornets on a b2b here. Expect them to bounce back and win this one, and should be more stats to go round for the Hawks guys.

• Hunter over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units

Spurs vs Wolves 12:10pm AEST

Think we are getting a pretty nice price here. Going back to pre-season, LA was taking 9.1 3 pointers per 36 and pre-season is generally a good indication of how teams/players ideally want to play coming into the season. He didn’t shoot well at all at just 21.1% which may have made him a little gun shy coming into the season. He went 2-11 across the first 3 games, before missing the next 3. Looks to have come back super confident taking 13 across the first 2 games back. He’s made 5 of them, and should be full of confidence coming off a season high 28 points including 3 triples.

• LaMarcus Aldridge over 1.5 3 pointers @ 2.45 with B365 – 1 unit

Was waiting all morning for TAB alt PRA markets but unfortunately no dice.

Have had this game circled in my calendar for a while now. So far this season, this is who he has come up against; Kyle Anderson, Pascal Siakam, Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis x3, Bojan Bogdanovic, Kawhi Leonard. AD has spent 12:37 mins guarding him, Lebron 6:14, Siakam 4:01, Kawhi 2:01. Had good games in all 3 of the favourable matchups…, Zion 14/11/5, Bojan 22/7/2, Anderson 16/5/3. He’s still averaging 13.8/7.3/2.5 on the season, including the 5/2/2 dud in the last game against the Lakers. Was watching that hoping he wouldn’t pop so we get a nice line today and thankfully that happened. Gets an amazing bounce-back spot here against the 30^th ranked defence Wolves. Opponents are shooting a ridiculous 70.2% at the rim against them, which fits Keldon’s game perfectly, as he takes 53% of his shots at the rim, which is 92^nd percentile amongst wings. He’s flashed his upside a few times this season going off for 26/10/2 against the Lakers, and 22/7/2 against the Jazz. Let’s just hope this one stays close and his outside shot is falling. Dejounte could also be the one to go off, so having a bit on him too.

• Keldon Johnson over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1.6 units
• Keldon Johnson over 19.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Keldon Johnson over 9.5 Rebounds @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Dejounte Murray over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Magic vs Mavs 12:10pm AEST

He missed yesterday’s game for management of his hamstring, so it is clearly still an issue but he was on track again to play 30 minutes against the Cavs before the blowout. Not too sure why we are getting the lower line today, against a Mavs team missing 2 starters (both very good defenders) and their backup point but it’s fine by me. He hasn’t see a massive usage boost without Fultz, but there are undoubtedly more shots to go around and I think we’ll see his playmaking today as he is a very willing passer. He’s had a team 2nd 26.2% usage rate over his last 3 averaging 18.0/9.0/3.0 in 27.6 mins. I really think if this stays close he’ll get pushed up to 30 which can only help.

• Aaron Gordon over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units

Staking Plan – 5.6 units out

• Hunter over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• LaMarcus Aldridge over 1.5 3 pointers @ 2.45 with B365 – 1 unit
• Aaron Gordon over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Keldon Johnson over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1.6 units
• Keldon Johnson over 19.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Keldon Johnson over 9.5 Rebounds @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Dejounte Murray over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
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