Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 1/7

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Suns vs Clippers

On the Clippers side of the ball Zu being out again is the big news. I tweeted out the other day that I thought the Clips should go to some five out lineups more often as they just were struggling so much to score and the early returns (although forced) have been good. Reggie and PG definitely have the safest minutes, with Morris closely behind. After those 3 Lue will likely go with a bit of a hot hand approach. Beverly will get his 25-30 as the primary guy on Booker (foul trouble a bit of a risk), while Mann should get every opportunity to get himself going offensively and probably has the highest variance from the main guys. He could play close to 40 if his shot is falling early (assuming he starts) but if it isn’t then look for Batum to pick up the extra minutes. Lue doesn’t seem too concerned about Kennard’s defence in this series so he probably has a bit of a longer leash as well but he’s 0-5 from 3 over the last 2 games so it doesn’t make much sense to keep him out there if he’s not doing the primary thing he’s out there to do. On the betting front, it’s hard to trust any of the Clippers away from PG, Reggie, Morris and out of those guys PG’s rebound line is a bit of interest. He’s averaging 10.5 boards per 36 without Zu and Kawhi in the playoffs. Will almost certainly play 40+ here. The Suns are likely going to leave Mann and Beverly open, might be worth sprinkling some on their alt 3s lines.

On the Suns side, no Cam Johnson is a sneaky big deal. He was hot last game and it really cut into both Mikal and Crowder, so without Cam today I’m expecting both of these two to get a bump. I had a long look at both of their points unders today, with the minute downside created from Cam and the awesome Clippers defence which has limited the ENTIRE Suns team to 12 wide open 3s over the last 2 games COMBINED. No Cam makes it a no bet now though just due to the minute security. On the flip side of that they might both have some rebounding upside. Mikal 8+ Rebounds @ 7.50 with Sportsbet offers a bit of value but as mentioned above the 5 out Clippers lineup is much better offensively so may not be as many rebounds to go around. The role for CP as I mentioned last game is so so good. Strong lean on his points over (would leave the assists out), and he has a stack of upside as well.

Just going to watch this one and enjoy but a little multi with my leans for today pays pretty well: CP 20+ Pts, PG 10+ Rbd, Mikal 4+ Rbd @ 5.00 with SB

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