Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 1/6

Apr 19, 2021; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Wizards center Daniel Gafford (21) dunks the ball against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

76ers vs Wizards

Back to him here. Just wanted to wait until Westbrook gets into the line-up here before locking this in. He’s quite foul prone and goes up against the best in the biz at drawing fouls here but the move to the starting lineup gives him a little more minute upside. Brooks has mentioned a bunch that he just can’t play big minutes (more than 7 at a time), but even 4 x 7 minute stints should get him up to 24. Should get some easy buckets playing with Westy, seeing a 3pt per 36 production increase when he’s on the court. He’s averaging 13.0 in 20.8 minutes this series, covering this in all of them. Have to have something on the alts has well as the minute upside is a bit of an unknown.

• Daniel Gafford over 10.5 Points @ 1.95 with B365 – 0.8 units
• Daniel Gafford over 14.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Grizzlies vs Jazz

After seeing Gafford pick up 2 stupid fouls early I was a little hesitant on this one, but with his role currently it’s just hard to pass up. We wouldn’t know because he manages to get himself in foul trouble every game, but it really feels like Jenkins would play him 40 minutes if he could, especially in a must win game. His per 40 line for the series is ridiculous at 33.3/4.9/2.1 with a 31.6% usage. He’s still averaging 27.0/4.0/1.7 for the series in just 32.4 minutes. So much upside here with the 30% usage if he can stay out of foul trouble.

• Dillon Brooks over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 0.7 units
• Dillon Brooks over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Dillon Brooks over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

When Jazz are hitting 3s they are very hard to beat, but like with so many teams it seems to be contagious. Conley is scoring 56% of his points from behind the arc this series whilst Royce has back to back games with 4 3s made. He’s not going to stay that hot but he’s getting great looks and the volume is decent at 13 attempts over the last couple.

• Royce O Neal 2 3’s / Mike Conley 3 3’s / Jazz win @ 5.25 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Royce O Neal 3 3’s @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 2.5 unit out

• Daniel Gafford over 10.5 Points @ 1.95 with B365 – 0.8 units
• Daniel Gafford over 14.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Dillon Brooks over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 0.7 units
• Dillon Brooks over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Dillon Brooks over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Royce O Neal 2+ 3’s / Mike Conley 3+ 3’s / Jazz win @ 5.25 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Royce O Neal 3+ 3’s @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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