Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 1/3

Season Results:

• 203 Wins / 422 Losses
• 91.07 Units Profit
• +27.09% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Clippers vs Bucks 7:40am AEST

Just a small bet here as this is Beverley is a pretty streaky shooter, but it’s a really nice spot for him and this is just the wrong price. He’s hit 3 triples in 3 of his last 7 games (including a game where he hit 4 against the Cavs) but only hit 1 in the other 4 so happy just taking the higher lines here. His minutes are a little choppy but he’s still getting shots up averaging 5 3’s per game over his last 3 in just 21 minutes. Gets a really good matchup here against the Bucks who allow the 4th most 3 pointers in the league, and they haven’t been defending it very well either allowing opponents to shoot 38%. He’s not exactly a traditional point guard, but the Bucks also allow the most 3 point makes to opposing PGs.

• Patrick Beverley over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Patrick Beverley over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Celtics vs Wizards 11:10am AEST

Dream situation for Kemba today. It was already a really nice spot for Kemba so it was surprising to see his line only a point above where it has been recently, considering the matchup and Jaylen listed as questionable who has a team 2nd 30.7% usage. He’s since been ruled out and it’s moved up another points but it still looks low. Kemba has been a bit hit and miss since returning from injury, but he may have turned a corner as he was awesome in the 4th quarter in their game against the Mavs scoring 14 points on 8 shots. He carried that into the game against the Pacers where he had his best game of the season going off for 32 on just 19 shots. He’s up at a 29.0% usage for the season, but gets a huge spike when Jaylen is off the court up to 34.9% putting up a 22.9/3.4/5.3 per 36 line. His efficiency has been well down all season, but in this sample he’s shooting just 33% and it’s still good enough to cover this line but as a career 42% guy we can expect that to come back up. When it was just Jaylen and Tatum together earlier in the season, Stevens would really stagger their minutes so expect him to do that with Kemba and Tatum here. We’ve got a decent enough 67 minute sample of Kemba without either of them and his usage is at a ridiculous 37.6% taking 26.8 FGA per 36 minutes. He’s going to have every chance to smash through this line today and gets a perfect matchup for him against the Wizards who have allowed the 2nd most points to PGs on the season, as well as the 4th highest FG%.

• Kemba Walker over 21.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.6 units
• Kemba Walker over 29.5 Points @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Grizzlies vs Rockets 12:10pm AEST

Should’ve locked in the Double/Double WIN at 2.25 last night but things aren’t going well right now and didn’t want to be unstuck by any late injury news. Still more than happy to take this price in what should be a smash spot for JV and a game that Grizzlies really should be winning. The numbers for the Rockets since Wood got injured are absolutely brutal. They have a league worst 102.9 offensive rating paired with the 6th worst defensive rating at 117.3 which is good for a league worst -14.4 net rating (Cavs 29th -13.1, Kings 28th -9.3). To make matters worse for the Rockets, they’ll be without Oladipo today who has a team 3rd +3.9 on/off differential. Maybe a bit of small sample size theatre here but the Rockets defence absolutely tanks when Oladipo is off the court as they are 11.7 PP100P worse. Allen is out for Grizz, but Melton can slot straight back into the rotation (I see this as a net positive as I’m a big fan of Melton and think he’s been criminally under-utilised). Grizzlies have been about league average over the last few weeks but have found themselves slip to 10th so they’ll know the importance of winning these games. Rockets have played 3 games since going to Tucker at the 5, and in the first game Wendell went off with 18/13 (averages 12.7/7.7) and Jarrett Allen exploded with 26/18 (averages 14.8/9.3). Boucher struggled a bit but he’s not really a traditional centre like the other guys.

• Jonas Valanciunas 15+ Points / Grizzlies Win @ 2.25 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units

Suns vs Wolves 1:10pm AEST

With Beasley out, they Wolves really don’t have many quality players to fill his 33.5 minutes. One way to do so would be to have Rubio and McLaughlin on the court together but Finch hasn’t shown a willingness to do that so the minutes have to come from somewhere else. Culver coming back into the mix helps, but he played just 14 minutes last night and it’s hard to see that be too much higher on the b2b especially as he isn’t very good. Vanderbilt has been awesome the last couple games and should really be headed for a more consistent role moving forward. He is so so active when he’s out there on both ends of the floor, always cutting when Towns or Rubio has the ball and is a really strong rebounder. This line is right on his season average but he’s only averaging 19.3 minutes, and I think he’ll see somewhere in the mid 20s here with 30+ upside. They were admittedly easier matchups against the Bulls and Wizards, but he well and truly covered this line in both with 22 and 23 PR respectively.

• Jarred Vanderbilt over 12.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units

I don’t have much faith at all in this one staying close so it’s hard to have to much on Chris here as he probably won’t get his full minutes, but it’s worth having a little something on these alts incase it does. His role has seemingly gotten even better of the last few and he is creating a ridiculous amount of potentials up at 25.0 over his last 2 games which is well up from the 17.5 he averages for the season. His touch time has come up also to 9.1 per game over his last 2, up from 7.3 for the season. He really should be able to pick this defence apart.

• Chris Paul over 11.5 Assists @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Chris Paul over 13.5 Assists @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Kings vs Hornets 12:10pm AEST

Been a while since we’ve been on PJ but he ticks all the boxes today and should be in for a big night. It was a little bit of a surprise to see him start at the 5 against the Warriors, but it is awesome for his production playing the 5 as he is used a ton more as the screener opening up opportunities for him to pop or roll to the rim. His per 36 line at the 5 this season is 19.6/8.4/2.8 on 21.1% usage which is up from his overall line of 15.6/8.3/3.9. He’s also the biggest beneficiary of Hayward sitting as he gets a 3.9% usage bump with him off the court. He’s shooting the ball much better at the moment, with 9 triples from just 17 attempts over his last 4. Kings have been getting absolutely killed in the paint giving up the most paint points in the league as well as 1.25 PPP to the roll man which is 2nd most in the league.

• PJ Washington over 12.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units

Staking Plan – 6.5 units out

• Patrick Beverley over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Patrick Beverley over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kemba Walker over 21.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.6 units
• Kemba Walker over 29.5 Points @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Jonas Valanciunas 15+ Points / Grizzlies Win @ 2.25 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
• Jarred Vanderbilt over 12.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Chris Paul over 11.5 Assists @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Chris Paul over 13.5 Assists @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• PJ Washington over 12.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
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