Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 1/2

Season Results:

• 125 Wins / 194 Losses
• 88.65 Units Profit
• +48.11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Wizards vs Nets 11:10am AEST

Bit of a shame I don’t have a strong read on either of these teams rotations behind the studs, as this game would be perfect to target. Last season, Wizards games were great to target because they were always high scoring and they always found a way to stick around but it’s getting very hard to trust them right now. Need to have some exposure to the wild 245.5 total so just going to multi up the studs with a small outlay and hope it stays close until the end. Little bit on some Beal alts too.

• Kyrie over 34.5 Pts + Ast / Beal over 31.5 Pts / Westbrook over 15.5 Rbd + Ast / Durant over 30.5 Pts @ 9.00 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Bradley Beal over 39.5 Points @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.2 units

76ers vs Pacers 11:10pm AEST

Hard to forget how awful the 76ers looked without Embiid against the Pistons, which moved them to 0-4 on the season without Embiid and its going to be very tough for them to win this one today. He has a pretty crazy +18.9 On/Off Net Rating differential and he’s going to be sorely missed against the big Pacers front-court. Pacers are a very well coached side so can look for them to take advantage here in this one.

• Indiana Pacers -2.5 @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units

Cavs vs Wolves 12:10pm AEST

Faded him last game in what I thought may be a tough matchup against the Knicks and there were some concerning comments about his shoulder, but he looked great once again finishing with a strong 24/3/1 line in just 29 minutes. Coming back to him here and am very keen today in what is as good a matchup as he could get against the Wolves who have allowed the most points to PGs on the season. Was awesome to see a big usage spike for him, leading the starters with a 31.4% rate. Only the 1 dime but was unlucky with 9 potentials as Cavs not named Garland just couldn’t hit shots. Expect them to be much better today.

• Darius Garland over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.2 units

Would have loved to be getting the 3.5 line again but we aren’t so just having another little go at his upside here. Still managed to rack up 5 dimes in the blowout loss last time out and just can’t shake that quote I mentioned previously. Great matchup and there should be plenty of stats to go around.

• Colin Sexton over 5.5 Assists @ 3.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Colin Sexton over 7.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Another little stab here, as I just think there are going to be a ton of stats to go around. Nance’s assist line has come right down today which is providing a ton of value on some alts. Hasn’t been as effective in his non centre minutes, but he’s someone with nightly assist upside having 5+ 6/17 games this season and 6+ 3 times. Was a victim of the Cavs poor shooting as well last game finishing with 0 dimes, but he had 7 potentials in just 29 minutes.

• Larry Nance Jr over 4.5 Assists @ 5.25 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Larry Nance Jr over 5.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 3.6 units out

• Kyrie over 34.5 Pts + Ast / Beal over 31.5 Pts / Westbrook over 15.5 Rbd + Ast / Durant over 30.5 Pts @ 9.00 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Bradley Beal over 39.5 Points @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Indiana Pacers -2.5 @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Darius Garland over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Colin Sexton over 5.5 Assists @ 3.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Colin Sexton over 7.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Larry Nance Jr over 4.5 Assists @ 5.25 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Larry Nance Jr over 5.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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