Our Expert Western Conference Preview & Predictions: Who Will Be Number 1?

Our expert analyst has supplied us with an in-depth preview for the upcoming 20/21 season &  is looking to improve on an incredible 19/20 season where we profited over 112 units at a strike rate of 59%.

19/20 Season Results:

Tier 1 – Championship Contenders

Lakers: Over 49.5 Wins

They are the reigning champions and deserved title favourites as the Lebron/AD duo is a match made in heaven. Although they have given themselves a nice talent upgrade bringing in Dennis, I wonder if they have missed a trick by using their full MLE on Harrell who I honestly can’t see being in a single closing line-up for them in the playoffs. Lakers best line-up is Lebron at the 4 and AD at the 5, so it would have made sense to spend that money on someone who could play themselves into that closing line-up. Clutched it late in FA getting Gasol, who could be a major help in some spots for them. Plenty of depth to breeze through the regular season. Expect plenty of rest games for Lebron.

Clippers: Over 48.5 Wins

Stung us badly last season, but I am happy to go again on them to win the chip at the $7.50 available. Definitely don’t have them as far apart from the Lakers as the market suggests. Although I am not the biggest Harrell fan it was looking like a disaster after they lost him to the Lakers, but they pulled off one of the most impactful signings of the off-season bringing in Ibaka. He gives them so much more flexibility and should thrive under Ty Lue who will get this team shooting a lot more 3 pointers. I was hoping they would be able to bring in a pure PG which is the only off-season knock. Getting Kennard gives them the ability to shop around Lou mid-season to help sure up any weaknesses.

Tier 2 – Playoff Race

Could probably have Denver in a tier of their own as a lock to make the playoffs, but I’ve thrown them in here which means there are 7 strong teams fighting for 6 playoff spots.

Denver: Over 44.5

I really thought they were going to get Jrue, which would have put them in championship contention but unfortunately, they’ve taken a little step back while the 2 LA teams have gotten better. Murray (23) & Jokic (25) are both young enough they don’t need to go all in now, so it might end up being good for them maintaining flexibility around those two and hopefully MPJ moving forward. Should still be very competitive with Barton coming into the season healthy, but backup C is a little bit of a concern. Not quite sure why they let Craig walk when he ended up just getting a minimum from the Bucks. He was a useful chess piece for them in the playoffs and could have had a larger role after losing Grant. Getting RJ Hampton at 24 in the draft was nice.

Dallas: Under 42.5

Luka is unreal and is a genuine chance to take out MVP this season. The Mavs success will be tied to his play. Bit of a shame that Porzingis will be missing the start of the season and may be limited throughout, but the Mavs have enough depth in the front-court with Kleber, Powell, Cauley-Stein and James Johnson that it is not a disaster for them. Quite liked them getting Josh Richardson, who is much better than he showed in Philly and could be set for a bounce-back season. Gives them some more defence on the perimeter and he will likely be opting out of his very team-friendly contract which free’s up more space for the Mavs pursuit of Giannis.

Golden State: Under 38.5

The loss of Klay is brutal for the Warriors & for the league. We lose a championship contender and may never get to see anything like the pre-Durant Warriors again. They have however done a really nice job filling out the roster around Steph with youth & athleticism clear priorities. Steph is a generational talent that makes everyone he plays with better, so it wouldn’t shock to see one of Oubre or Wiggins really improve this season. I thought Wanamaker was a nice get for them (also a bad loss for Boston) as he can play with Steph as well as run the offence while Steph is on the bench or inactive. Although they probably don’t have enough to be contenders, they’ll be one of the most exciting teams to watch this season and I am looking forward to seeing how they integrate Wiseman.

Rockets: Under 35.5

 A few nice pieces of business in the off-season essentially turning Covington into 2 first round picks + Christian Wood as well as getting a first rounder for Westbrook. If Harden leaves it doesn’t really matter if they have Westbrook or Wall’s contract and that was probably the only way they were getting a first rounder for him. Hard to have any confidence at all in Harden playing out the season there so they could easily be the team to drop out of the race.

 Suns: Over 37.5

 Nice off-season for the Suns, who will be looking to build on their 8-0 stint in the bubble. Slightly over-paid for Paul as I’m not sure who they were bidding against, but he gives this team a legit chance at home-court. They filled in around the edges really nicely bringing in Crowder, Moore & Galloway while re-signing Saric & Carter. They have a deep wing rotation with a lot of versatility and will be hoping Bridges & Johnson can take another step forward. I do not at all understand taking Jalen Smith at 10, who is likely just going to back-up Ayton (may play a few minutes next to him, but they are so deep at the 4 already). Haliburton was on the board and seemed like the perfect guy for them, as if he works out would have been a great long-term fit next to Booker.

 Trailblazers: Over 39.5

 Another huge off-season winner. They’ve lacked wings for multiple seasons but are now far better equipped to handle the plethora of wings in the West by bringing in Covington & Derrick Jones. They’ve had a top 3 offence each of the last 2 seasons, so having some more strong defenders around Dame & CJ was a clear priority. As well as being deep on the wing, their frontcourt is stacked also with Nurkic, Collins, Kanter & Giles. I’m surprised there wasn’t more of a market for Giles, as he has shown some really nice glimpses and he has some decent upside. They didn’t address the back-up point so expect CJ & Dame to stagger their minutes and Trent filling in the majority of remaining guard minutes. Still a little bit of chat around Simons but he hasn’t shown a great deal yet. He should get some chances. In the hunt for home court.

 Jazz: Over 42.5

Hard not to be impressed by Mitchell in the bubble and Utah will be relying heavily on him to continue improving as they had a fairly quiet off-season. They brought back Favors which is a huge upgrade at back-up centre over Bradley, but it’s a lot of money to pay for a backup 5. I’m sure he’ll get some minutes at the 4 but that creates all sorts of spacing problems. Jazz have excellent shooters across the board and are at their best with one of their guards driving and either dumping to Rudy (or Favors) or kicking out to the perimeter. Having 2 non-shooters will be tough. Getting Bojan back is obviously a big help for them. He had a +9.8 on/off differential last season.

Tier 3 – Play In Race

Memphis: Under 31.5

Had a pretty quiet off season, re-signing Melton to a nice contract the main move. They’ve got one of the best young cores in the league so continuing to develop their young guys should remain their top priority. Although they’ll be hoping to make the playoffs this season, they just look a level below and JJJ missing the start of the season doesn’t make things any easier. They could however sneak into that 10^th seed and give themselves a shot.

Spurs: Over 29.5

Hard to know what to make of them this season. They have been shopping around their 4 vets (Aldridge, DeRozan, Gay, Mills) but were unable to find any deals for them which is a little bit surprising and also a little annoying. I was really looking forward to seeing their young guys get some extended run. As long as their vets are around they can make the play-in game.

Pelicans: Over 35.5

Absolutely crushed the Holiday trade, getting a massive haul taking advantage of the Bucks desperation but everything went downhill after that. Trading for Adams and then extending him at that number before he has played a game with Zion/Ingram was not smart. I get they wanted to sure up their defence, but is he even that good defensively? He seems to have slowed down a little bit.

They have so many pieces now including several future draft assets from the AD & Jrue deals it would have been ok to just play out the season and figure out what they have with Zion and how-to best compliment him before locking themselves into anything long term. Apparently Pacers were shopping Turner but there was no market for him, he seems like he’d be a FAR better fit for this team and the Pels have all the assets to make that happen if they wanted. Still have a good team and depending what we get from Zion will likely determine if they can get into the play-in. Total could go either way.

Tier 4: Lottery

Timberwolves: Under 29.5

Couldn’t have done things much worse. Giving up a very lightly protected first round pick for Russell wasn’t the best bit of business at the time, but they’ve compounded that now by taking Edwards over LaMelo because of the fit. What do they expect to win with Russell long term? Rubio is a good PG and is on a fine contract, but he is essentially going to be a backup now as it’s hard to see him and Russell being effective together. $17m for a back-up is a lot. Overpaid Beasley who is now the 4^th guard on their team. They have no flexibility at all after making these win-now moves, but it’s really hard to see them even making a playoff push with so many holes on the roster.

Kings: Under 27.5

Nothing really to get excited about here. Losing Bogdan for nothing is not at all ideal, especially when it looked like they were going to be getting a decent haul headlined by DiVincenzo from the Bucks at one point. I’m a bit surprised they signed Whiteside as I thought Holmes was one of their best players last season, and I am of the belief Bagley is just a 5 now. They somehow had Haliburton fall to them at 12 and he’s a nice fit with Fox. Lottery bound with definite tank potential if they get off to a slow start.

Thunder: Under 20.5

Presti is giving all the other GMs a lesson on how to rebuild a team. Looking forward to seeing how Shai goes as the man. In 61 minutes without Paul & Schroder last season, he had a 33.5% usage and a 21.1/9.4/8.2 per 36 line. Didn’t shoot the ball well at just 35.9% so if he can improve his efficiency that line will look even better. Bazley is in line for a huge role as well.

It’s likely going to be a very strange season so I can’t say I am overly excited about betting into any of the over/under markets at this stage, but I think depth is the most important factor to consider if you are having a bet.

Western Conference Champions; Los Angeles Clippers

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