NRL Round 4 Preview: Supercoach Tips, Betting Insights, Stats & Team News On Every Game
April 4, 2019
We’re a month into the season and the premiership ladder is starting to take shape with two teams still unbeaten at the top. Here’s a look at everything you need to know about your teams chances.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS VS GOLD COAST TITANS – FRIDAY 5 APRIL, 6:00PM, MT SMART STADIUM
As far as finals are concerned, this is a huge match up for both the Titans and Warriors, both of which look headed towards a wooden spoon before a premiership this season.
The Titans weren’t embarrassed by the Rabbitohs last week, but Garth Brennan’s side are still facing an 0-3 hole with no end in sight. Gold Coast’s Brian Kelly was the standout bagging two tries, but the defence ultimately struggled as the Bunnies controlled possession.
After a promising start to the season, the Warriors were also a complete no-show against Manly, falling 46-12 in front of their hometown fans. The worrying sign for New Zealand comes on defence, as missed tackles have become a common theme each week.
How To Watch:
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Team news:
Warriors: Coach Stephen Kearney has reacted to last week’s thrashing by dropping rookie five-eighth Adam Keighran and promoting Chanel Harris-Tevita to start. Hooker Issac Luke is out with a hamstring injury, replaced by Karl Lawton, while experienced prop Leeson Ah Mau has been elevated to the starting side at the expense of Bunty Afoa, who is on the bench. Ligi Sao is the new face on the interchange bench. Blake Ayshford and Keighran were omitted from the 21-man squad on Thursday night.
Titans: The return of Ash Taylor (quadriceps) and Tyrone Roberts (Achilles) in the halves sees AJ Brimson move to the bench and Ryley Jacks omitted. Phillip Sami and Max King have been relegated from the bench to the reserves list while Moeaki Fotuaika comes onto the interchange. Jai Whitbread was omitted 24 hours before kick-off.
Supercoach Tips:
- Roger Tuivasa-Sheck ($568,200) – has been the highest scorer of any player in this match (225)
- Jai Arrow ($608,100) – has averaged 71.7 points per round this season.
Betting Insights:
- Gold Coast has covered the line in each of its last seven matches following an away loss.
- New Zealand has won each of its last seven night matches against Gold Coast.
- Anthony Don has scored at least one try in seven of Gold Coast’s last eight away matches.
- New Zealand has won each of its last three matches against Gold Coast at Mt Smart Stadium by a margin of 1 to 12 points.
- David Fusitua has scored at least one try in each of New Zealand’s last three Friday matches at Mt Smart Stadium.
- Each of New Zealand’s last four matches have gone OVER the total match points line.
TIP: Warriors to bounce back.
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PENRITH PANTHERS VS WESTS TIGERS – FRIDAY 5 APRIL, 7:55PM, PANTHERS STADIUM
Ivan Cleary gets the chance to face his former team for the first time since departing the Wests Tigers last season as both sides look to bounce back from big losses in Round 3.
The Penrith Panthers were completely outclassed by the Storm and held to just two points, dropping them to 14th on the ladder.
Meanwhile, after starting the season brightly with two big wins, the Tigers crashed to defeat against the lowly Bulldogs and have had just five days to prepare for this trip to Penrith, where they haven’t won since 2013.
To keep their great home record intact, the Panthers will need to get through their sets after completing a measly 57.5% against the Storm while making 17 errors.
How To Watch:
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Team news:
Panthers: Not quite a complete overhaul of the pack but pretty close to it. Reagan Campbell-Gillard was named to start at prop, with Moses Leota switching to the bench. Viliame Kikau and Isaah Yeo will start in the back-row, while James Fisher-Harris swaps to lock. Dropped to the bench with Leota were back-rowers Hame Sele and Frank Winterstein.
Wests Tigers: Benji Marshall (hamstring) was yet another high-profile casualty from round three. Benji’s bad luck has opened the door for Josh Reynolds to start at five-eighth alongside Luke Brooks. Coach Michael Maguire has resisted making any other changes to the team humbled 22-8 by Canterbury last week but it might be a different story if the Tigers don’t perform this week.
Supercoach Tips:
- Robbie Farah ($651,400) – Has been a consistent earner this season with an average of 96.7 points per game.
- Jarome Luai ($376,200) – Is overs at this point costing 23.5 dollars per point.
Betting Insights:
- Penrith has won each of its last four matches against the Wests Tigers by a margin of 13+ points.
- Waqa Blake has scored at least one try in each of Penrith’s last six Friday matches.
- Penrith has won eight of its last nine night matches at Panthers Stadium.
- Nine of Penrith’s last 10 Friday night matches have gone OVER the total match points line.
- Robbie Farah has scored at least one try in each of the Wests Tigers’ last two night matches.
- Josh Mansour has scored at least one try in each of his last four regular season Friday appearances.
TIP: The bubble has burst with the Tigers and the Panthers will be too good.
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MANLY SEA EAGLES VS SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS – SATURDAY APRIL 6, 3:00PM, BROOKVALE OVAL
Manly broke through for their first win with an impressive win against over the Warriors last week, highlighting how important Tom Trbojevic is to his team after he returned from injury.
We are yet to see if they can show consistency and with a battle against premiership contenders here they will be tested.
The Bunnies looked like posting a cricket score last week against the Titans before dangerously easing off the gas in the second half.
How To Watch:
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Team news:
Sea Eagles: In the only change to the 17 which took care of the Warriors last week Brendan Elliot comes into the centres for Moses Suli who has been dropped for disciplinary performance standards.
Rabbitohs: Two big changes, with captain Greg Inglis and prop George Burgess both returning to the starting line-up. Dane Gagai has moved to right centre to allow GI to play left centre after Braidon Burns (hamstring) was injured last week against the Titans. Burgess will start up front alongside twin brother Tom, with Tevita Tatola dropping to the bench and Rhys Kennedy named among the reserves.
Supercoach Tips:
- Daly Cherry-Evans ($625,200) – Has justified his prices tag with 259 points this season.
- Corey Waddell ($168,100) – Is the highest value player in this game costing only 4.5 dollars per point.
Betting Insights:
- Sixteen of Manly’s last 18 day matches have gone OVER the total match points line.
- Manly has lost eight of its last nine matches at Lottoland.
- The underdog has covered the line in each of the last four matches between Manly and South Sydney at Lottoland.
- Campbell Graham has scored at least one try in each of South Sydney’s last three matches.
- Daly Cherry-Evans has scored a try in four of Manly’s last five day matches at Lottoland.
- Cameron Murray has been the first try-scorer in each of South Sydney’s last two away matches.
TIP: The Rabbitohs are on a rampage at the moment and Manly won’t be stopping them here. Manly easily
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NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS VS CANBERRA RAIDERS – SATURDAY APRIL 6, 5:30PM, 1300SMILES STADIUM
Nothing went right for the Cowboys at home last week, falling by 26-points to an overpowering Sharks side.
Cronulla got right down to business early with a 15th minute try by Chad Townsend, before the floodgates opened in the second half behind Josh Morris and Josh Dugan’s brilliant runs.
The Raiders were back in the winners circle last week, albeit narrowly over the Knights. Canberra dominated possession at home to walk away with a 17-10 victory, but perhaps the most encouraging sign was Jordan Rapana’s huge day on attack.
Against an injury ravaged Cowboys outfit, the Raiders will certainly fancy themselves on the road this week. Canberra have won two-straight over North Queensland, including last year’s blowout 38-12 win at home.
How To Watch:
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Team news:
Cowboys: No panic from Paul Green after last week’s loss to the Sharks with the same 17 players named to tackle the Raiders this weekend in Townsville.
Raiders: Not surprisingly, coach Ricky Stuart has stuck with the 17 that got the job done against Newcastle last week. Aidan Sezer (stomach muscle) is expected to be available for selection in round five and it’ll be interesting to see if Stuart picks him at halfback ahead of Sam Williams. Joe Tapine (thumb) failed a fitness test and will drop off the reserves list.
Supercoach Tips:
- Bailey Simonsson ($168,100) – Is proving to be a great value player costing only 3.8 dollars per point.
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad ($330,300) – Was a big earner last week with 90 points.
Betting Insights:
- North Queensland has won nine of its last 10 home matches against Canberra.
- Each of Canberra’s last seven matches have gone UNDER the total match points line.
- Joey Leilua has scored at least one try in five of Canberra’s last six away matches.
- Nick Cotric has scored a try in each of Canberra’s last four Saturday day matches.
- Gavin Cooper has scored a try in six of his last seven appearances against Canberra.
- Nene Macdonald has scored at least one try in each of his two previous appearances against Canberra in Queensland.
TIP: With no Thurston we expect the Raiders to overturn a terrible record against the Cowboys. Raiders for the win
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PARAMATTA EELS VS CRONULLA SHARKS – SATURDAY APRIL 6, 7:35PM, ANZ STADIUM
The Parramatta Eels will play their final home match at ANZ Stadium this weekend before moving to the new Bankwest Stadium in Western Sydney.
The Eels have experienced a mixed bag of emotions during their two years at ANZ, breaking an eight-year finals drought in 2017 before claiming a wooden spoon 12 months later. They’ve started this season strongly with two wins from three, recording their first blemish against the Roosters last Friday.
Meanwhile, the Sharks have bounced back from a season-opening loss by recording consecutive wins against the Titans and Cowboys. Parramatta will be looking to snap a five-match losing streak against Cronulla – its last victory coming back in 2014.
How To Watch:
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Team news:
Eels: Five-eighth Dylan Brown (back) is out and his place is taken by Jaeman Salmon. In the only other change to the team beaten 32-18 last week by the Roosters, Tepai Moeroa has been named as the starting lock, with Peni Terepo dropping back to the bench.
Sharks: Josh Dugan has been named as the man to fill injured Matt Moylan’s shoes at fullback, while Bronson Xerri has been promoted to start at right centre. That’s the only change coach John Morris has made to the team that thrashed the Cowboys.
Supercoach Tips:
- Maika Sivo ($236,500) – Was the highest earner of either team last week with 99 points.
- Sosaia Feki ($346,500) – Has to be traded costing a whopping 31.5 dollars per point.
Betting Insights:
- Parramatta has lost each of its last four night matches by a margin of 13+ points.
- Cronulla has won each of its last five matches against Parramatta.
- Each of Cronulla’s last five night matches at ANZ Stadium have gone UNDER the total match points line.
- Sosaia Feki has scored at least one try in five of his last six appearances against Parramatta.
- Briton Nikora has scored a try in each of Cronulla’s last two matches.
- Blake Ferguson has scored at least one try in each of his last three regular season appearances at ANZ Stadium.
TIP: The Sharks’ have been building their form every week and should win here.
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MELBOURNE STORM VS CANTERBURY BULLDOGS – SUNDAY APRIL 7, 4:05PM, AAMI PARK
The Storm were at their best last week in Bathurst picking apart the Panthers for a 32-2 win. Melbourne’s moved through their phases with ease, but their defence also looked on point as they forced a handful of errors against Penrith in horrid conditions.
The Dogs also forced some mistakes of their own against Wests last week, but Canterbury will need to tidy up on defence enormously if they wish to upset the Storm in Melbourne. The Bulldogs committed eight penalties against the Tigers, also missing 36 tackles in the 22-8 win.
How To Watch:
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Team news:
Storm: In a week of key changes at other clubs, unbeaten Melbourne have luck on their side, retaining the same 17-man team that put the cleaners through Penrith last week.
Bulldogs: A huge setback for the Doggies with news that Kieran Foran is sidelined with an ankle injury, especially after his strong showing in last week’s win over the Tigers. Jack Cogger gets his chance as Foran’s replacement, while Rhyse Martin has been named to start and Adam Elliott will come off the bench.
Supercoach Tips:
- Dylan Napa ($368,100) – Has been Mr consistent with 205 points this season.
- Adam Elliott ($396,100) – Was the highest point scorer of any player in this match last week with 87 points.
Betting Insights:
- The Storm have a 100% under total match points record this season.
- Clashes at AAMI Park average 34 total match points.
TIP: Storm will be too good.
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NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS VS ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS – SUNDAY APRIL 7, 6:10PM, MCDONALD JONES STADIUM
The Dragons survived by the skin of their teeth last week, nailing a last-minute drop goal to defeat the Broncos by a point at Suncorp. The Knights also found themselves in a close one against Canberra, but ultimately slipped to their second loss on the season as the offence stalled in the second half.
St. George are an impressive 3-1 as the away underdog against the Knights, while Newcastle are only 2-2 as the overall favourite at home over the last 12 months. Much of this game will come down to who can make the most of their opportunities – particularly the Dragons, who now look to continue without Gareth Widdop.
Kalyn Ponga is back at fullback for the Knights, but will that be enough to stop a Dragons defence that was brilliant in the final 10-minutes against the Broncos?
How To Watch:
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Team news:
Knights: The Kalyn Ponga at No.6 experiment is over for the time being with the gifted Queenslander shifted back to fullback for the Dragons clash. Mason Lino is the new five-eighth and last week’s fullback Kurt Mann has been shifted to the bench. Tim Glasby has been moved from lock to prop in a straight swap with Mitch Barnett. Daniel Saifiti (knee and foot) returns from injury on the bench and James Gavet is out.
Dragons: Just one change to the team that upset Brisbane 25-24 last week but it’s a significant re-jig, with Gareth Widdop (shoulder dislocation) replaced at fullback by Matt Dufty. Tyson Frizell (testicle) has been named among the reserves in a positive sign for Dragons fans.
Supercoach Tips:
- Korbin Sims ($389,900) – Could be a big improver after 73 points last week.
- Matthew Dufty ($460,800) With only 24 points this season (albeit little game time) Dufty is needing points to justify his price tag.
Betting Insights:
- The Knights have a 100% under total match points record this season.
- Clashes at McDonald Jones Stadium average 26 total match points.
TIP: The Dragons for the win.
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