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NRL Round 1 Preview: Our Selections & Staking Plan

March 10, 2021

By The Sporting Base
NRL Round 1 Preview: Our Selections & Staking Plan

The NRL is back and we’ve been counting down the days as we look to improve on our 31 units won last season.
2020 Season Tipping Results (Started In Round 8) :
  • 49 wins from 94 tips
  • 31.17 Units Of Profit
  • $1,558 Profit Based On $50 Units
  • 51.12% Strike Rate
  • View Results Spreadsheet

Round 1 kicks off with an absolute blockbuster as the Storm will look to show they can be just as dominant without Cameron Smith while the Rabbitohs will want to hit the ground hopping.

MELBOURNE STORM VS SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS – THURSDAY 11 MARCH, 7:05PM, AAMI PARK

The Storm and the Rabbitohs have been a popular pick to play out this year’s Grand Final and it is only fitting that they should meet in the opening game of the season.

After winning their fourth Premiership last year, the Storm have been installed as slight favourites in betting as they look to show they are just as potent without long-time captain Cameron Smith.

The Rabbitohs will also sport a new look this season with the likes of Jai Arrow, Josh Mansour and Benji Marshall joining Latrell Mitchell and Alex Johnston in the red and green.

The Rabbitohs have never beaten the Storm in Melbourne.

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS VS CANTERBURY BULLDOGS – FRIDAY 12 MARCH, 5:00PM, MCDONALD JONES STADIUM

Newcastle go into their 2021 season opener against the Bulldogs at McDonald Jones Stadium with star recruit Tyson Frizell in their pack and a finals campaign under their belts but lacking all-important momentum.

Newcastle is set to open the season without star fullback Kalyn Ponga and talented winger Edrick Lee on Friday night, leaving the bulk of the work in the hands of Bradman Best, Mitchell Pearce, and new recruit Tyson Frizell.

Fortunately, the Knights are taking on a rebuilding Bulldogs club, but this does shape up to be one of the most likely upsets on the Round 1 card. 

The Dogs should also feel pretty good about themselves knowing they defeated Newcastle 18-12 when they met last July.

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BRISBANE BRONCOS VS PARRAMATTA EELS – FRIDAY 12 MARCH, 7:05PM, SUNCORP STADIUM

Wooden spooners Brisbane kick off the Kevin Walters era against Parramatta at Suncorp Stadium full of hope but will have to improve on a disappointing performances in recent trial games.

The Broncos looked slick and sharp while racing to an 18-6 half-time lead against North Queensland at Redcliffe but after the break it all fell apart, opening the door for the Cowboys to score 28 unanswered points.

Through the first half of last year Parramatta looked unstoppable, only for the scoring to dry up on the way to back-to-back losses to the Storm and the Rabbitohs in the finals.

The good news is the Eels have retained most of the same roster that took the field last year, leaving Parra poised for another finals spot providing they don’t collapse mentally down the stretch.

Three consecutive blowout losses makes the Eels difficult to back against here, especially after Brisbane’s trial game against the Cowboys left a lot to be desired.

NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS VS GOLD COAST TITANS – SATURDAY 13 MARCH, 2:00PM, CENTRAL COAST STADIUM

Both of these teams have been popular picks to return to the finals this year after signing several big names to the dotted line during the offseason.

The Titans have lost fan favourite Jai Arrow during the process, but in return have gained David Fifita, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and former Warrior Patrick Herbert, who lines up to face his old team for the first time.

By the same token, the Warriors also spent big during the break signing Euan Aitken, Kane Evans and Addin Fonua-Blake to help compliment Roger Tuivasa-Sheck in his final season with the club.

After both sides finished the 2020 season red-hot, it wouldn’t be surprising if we were treated to a high-scoring thriller on Saturday.

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SYDNEY ROOSTERS VS MANLY SEA EAGLES – SATURDAY 13 MARCH, 4:30PM, SCG

Trent Robinson’s team are deservedly included prominently when talk turns to potential premiers.

The same can’t be said for a Manly team that looks to be on the wrong end of an injury curse once again. Tom Trbojevic has sustained another hamstring injury.

The Morris brother are back for another year, while there’s also good news on the Luke Keary front with the star five-eighth a chance to play through a hamstring injury.

PENRITH PANTHERS VS NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS – SATURDAY 13 MARCH, 6:35PM, PANTHERS STADIUM

The departure of Josh Mansour and James Tamou leaves the Panthers significantly weaker in their bid to return to the Grand Final, but they should feel pretty good about facing a rebuilding Cowboys team playing under new head coach Todd Payten for the first time.

North Queensland has spent most of the offseason working on speed and creativity after last year’s stagnant attack saw the Cowboys finish 14th on the ladder.

The Panthers should just be too good here.

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CANBERRA RAIDERS VS WESTS TIGERS – SUNDAY 14 MARCH, 3:05PM, GIO STADIUM

After making the grand final in 2019 and the preliminary final last year, the Raiders enter the new season as one of the genuine title contenders.

The Tigers have undergone an overhaul in the off-season under coach Michael Maguire and, despite missing a few players due to injuries and suspensions, they enter the game on the back of an emphatic trial win over Manly.

ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS VS CRONULLA SHARKS – SUNDAY 14 MARCH, 5:15PM, NESTRATA JUBILEE STADIUM

Most pundits have both sides to finish well outside the eight this season, but there is a case to be made for the Sharks exceeding expectations for the second year in a row.

Defensively, Cronulla was a train wreck last year, but this is still a talented lineup full of playmakers on the attacking side of the ball.

Sione Katoa and Ronaldo Mulitalo were try-scoring machines last year, while head coach John Morris has managed to get the most out of Josh Dugan and Blayke Brailey since taking over back in 2019.

New coach Anthony Griffin has a huge job ahead of him as he looks to put a new system in place and also change the culture, all of which will take time throughout the course of the season.

The former Broncos and Panthers mentor becomes the eighth coach of the joint-venture, following in the footsteps of David Waite, Andrew Farrar, Nathan Brown, their 2010 premiership winner Wayne Bennett, Steve Price, Paul McGregor and last season’s interim appointment, Dean Young.

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