NRL Finals Preview: Eels host red-hot Raiders with preliminary finals berth at stake

The Parramatta Eels will host the Canberra Raiders in a do-or-die semi-final this Friday night at CommBank Stadium in Sydney’s west with the victor advancing to a Grand Final qualifier against the Cowboys in Townsville.

The two sides have faced off just once in 2022 with Parramatta running away 28-20 victors in Round 12 on a Sunday afternoon in Canberra behind a Man of the Match performance courtesy of Dylan Brown.

Eels head coach Brad Arthur has named the same 17 that was outmatched by the Panthers on Friday night with Mitchell Moses being closely monitored after failing to finish the clash due to a head knock. The expectation is that he plays this weekend.

Canberra, meanwhile, have been forced to make just the one change with Adam Elliott unavailable due to a pelvic injury. Corey Harawira-Naera has been elevated to the run-on side with Ryan Sutton taking his place on the interchange.

The Eels have won four of their past five against the Raiders, however, just one of those clashes has been decided by double-figures meaning we could be in for a tight one.

The Raiders have met the Eels at CommBank on just the lone occasion with Parramatta earning a one-point victory thanks to a Clint Gutherson field goal. This will be the first ever finals clash between Parramatta and Canberra.

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The Raiders have now won eight of their past nine games – including their 28-20 win over the Storm on Saturday – and find themselves 80 minutes away from their third preliminary final in four years – a position few expected them to be. The Eels, meanwhile, have won three of their past five but are fresh off a disappointing second-half effort against the Panthers.

Parramatta finished the regular season ranked third in the premiership in yardage whilst Canberra were down in 10th, however, the likes of Joseph Tapine and Josh Papali’i led from the front as the Raiders outran the Eels in their Round 12 loss.

Tapine and Papali’i have been the premiership’s form front-row duo over the past month and their battle with opposites Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Junior Paulo will be one to watch from kick-off.

Maika Sivo was Parramatta’s only outside back to crack 100 run metres in their loss to Penrith which proved costly as Penrith completed eight more sets and 37 more runs.

We were gifted some insight into how both coaches may manage their interchanges from their last-start outings.

Arthur went with his usual last-minute swap and started Marata Niukore in place of Ryan Matterson with the latter replacing centre Will Penisini due to a HIA in the 12th minute, pushing Niukore into the centres temporarily, and playing out the remainder of the game. Penisini passed his HIA and replaced Paulo, pushing Niukore back into the middle briefly before Oregon Kaufusi replaced him. Paulo spent just nine minutes on the bench before replacing front-row partner Campbell-Gillard. Their first changes of the second-half were Paulo and Kaufusi exiting for Campbell-Gillard and Niukore. Jake Arthur replaced HIA victim Moses at the 59-minute mark. Regular 80-minuter Shane Lane was taken off moments later for a HIA with Paulo coming on and pushing Niukore a little wider before Lane came back on for Campbell-Gillard. Kaufusi and Makahesi Makatoa came on in the final stages to spell Paulo and Niukore.

Much has been made of Parramatta’s minutes rotation with Kaufusi and Niukore the only interchange players generally relied on for any length of time. Makatoa often comes on late in the game for spattering of minutes whilst Arthur is used in an outside-back-cover-slash-victory-cigar role. The ability of the likes of Paulo, Matterson, Papali’i and Lane to perform at a high level for long stints is a luxury but it feels as though more often than not the interchange minutes are being mismanaged.

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As for Canberra, their first change was a forced one with Matt Timoko requiring a HIA and replaced in the centres by the Corey Harawira-Naera before he returned shortly after. Emre Guler replaced Papali’i up front at the 28-minute mark before Corey Horsburgh came on for the injured Elliott shortly after. Tapine earnt his first break 50 minutes into the piece with Papali’i replacing him in a double change with Tom Starling replacing Zac Woolford at hooker. Harawira-Naera found himself back in the contest just short of the hour-mark in place of Guler with Tapine replacing Horsburgh shortly after. In their final change, Horsburgh replaced Harawira-Naera for the final eight minutes of the contest.

Elliott’s injury and Timoko’s head knock threw a spanner in the works for head coach Ricky Stuart but his interchange philosophy was seemingly clear: have at least one of Tapine or Papali’i on the field at all times. Guler and Horsburgh both provided solid work through the middle in the absence of Elliott whilst Harawira-Naera’s versatility proved an asset also.

The forward pack battle will be of major influence this Saturday night and, whilst the absence of Elliott stings for Canberra, their middle depth cushions the blow as they attempt to keep a lid on the likes of Paulo, Papali’i, Campbell-Gillard, Matterson and Lane.

An electric CommBank crowd should work in Parramatta’s favour although Canberra are hardly a side deterred by uncomfortable environments.

Parramatta enter the game as $1.49 favourites despite Canberra’s strong recent form.

Kick-off: 7:50pm Friday at CommBank Stadium, Parramatta

Eels: Eels: 1. Gutherson (c); 2. Sivo; 3. Penisini; 4. Opacic; 5. Blake; 6. Brown; 7. Moses; 8. Campbell-Gillard; 9. Mahoney; 10 Paulo (c); 11. Lane; 12. Papali’i; 13. Matterson; 14. Makatoa; 15. Arthur; 16. Kaufusi; 17. Niukore; 18. Brown; 19. Simonsson; 20. Cartwright; 21. Ogden; 22. Rodwell

Raiders: Raiders: 1. Savage; 2. Čotrić; 3. Timoko; 4. Kris; 5. Rapana; 6. Wighton; 7. Fogarty; 8. Papali’i; 9. Woolford; 10. Tapine; 11. Young; 12. Whitehead (c); 13. Harawira-Naera; 14. Starling; 15. Guler; 16. Horsburgh; 17. Sutton; 18. Hopoate; 19. Mariota; 20. Frawley; 21. Hola; 22. Nicoll-Klokstad

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