NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 9/12

May have some adds later, if I do it’s unlikely they will have write ups with so much happening today.

Results:

• -9.20 Units Loss
• -10% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Bulls vs Cavs 11:10am AEST

More than happy to essentially run this one back. Was plagued by foul trouble last game which kept him to 27 minutes but still crushed his line with 9 boards and a dime. The rates are so good and he’s got 40 minute upside in him with the Bulls needing size against the big Cavs front court, and losing Matt Thomas to protocols who played 19 minutes last game. So much upside with the likely huge minutes coming his way.

• Derrick Jones Jr over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.84 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Derrick Jones Jr double double @ 16.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

Kicking myself for not playing this last game as it was fairly obvious, but more than happy to play today and we are getting a huge price. The role for Lavine was amazing with 8.9!! minutes of touch time, up from just 4.5 on the season. The Bulls are so limited the easiest offence for them to run is just PNR with Lavine/Vooch and they ran it a ton last game, with 4 of Lavine’s 8 dimes coming via Vooch. Cavs have been quite good at limiting roll men on the season, but a lot of that is because they contest the rim so well. Vooch should be able to still get clean looks when he pops just going to need to have his jumper working as we might not get any easy ones around the rim. Zach had 15 potentials last game.

• Zach Lavine over 5.5 Assists @ 2.32 with Topsport – 0.9 units
• Zach Lavine double double @ 12.25 with B365 – 0.1 units

Rockets vs Nets 11:40am AEST

A few things lining up for a big Tate game here. No House gives him a huge minutes ceiling, while no KPJ and Green means he’s going to have the ball in his hands a ton. The numbers without KPJ/Green on the court are awesome this season, with a 17.3/8.8/6.3 per 36 line (114 mins). He’s been in foul trouble the last couple of games which has kept his minutes in check but I really think he could get up closer to 40 here in what should be a close game against the KD-less Nets on a road b2b.

• Jae’Sean Tate over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit

Thunder vs Raptors 11:40am AEST

No Birch, OG or Achiuwa and the Raptors in the middle of a 2 game week means we are going to see heavy minutes for Siakam, with a lot of them coming at the 5. Per CTG, Siakam has played 27% of his minutes at centre this season, where he’s rebounded 17.9% off opponents misses off FGA (up from 14.9% at PF), and 40% of opponents misses off free throws (up from 11.1%). The OKC Thunder offence is awful and they give up the 4th most rebounds per game, the 3rd most to the Centre position. Was tossing up Barnes here too.

• Pascal Siakam over 7.5 Rebounds @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Grizzlies vs Mavericks 12:10am AEST

Nothing has really changed here to suggest Aldama will get more than his 10-12 minutes, especially with the improved play of Adams. He exploded for 18/10/3 in that record breaking win against the Thunder, but has settled back into his previous rotation with just 12 and 10 minutes in his last two. The only reason I can think of as to why it’s a high line here is that they are expecting him to take some of Clarke’s minutes but he missed the last two games also. Only the elite guys produce around the 1 PRA / minute mark, which is what he’s going to have to do if I have his minutes projection right. He only had 9 PRA total over the last two games (22 minutes) including 2/4/0 against the Mavs this week.

• Santi Aldama UNDER 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 5.1 units out

• Derrick Jones Jr over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.84 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Derrick Jones Jr double double @ 16.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Zach Lavine over 5.5 Assists @ 2.32 with Topsport – 0.9 units
• Zach Lavine double double @ 12.25 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Jae’Sean Tate over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Pascal Siakam over 7.5 Rebounds @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Santi Aldama UNDER 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit

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