NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 6/11

“Did you run over a cat or something?”

Results:

• -7.10 Units Loss
• -17% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Wolves vs Clippers 11:10am AEST

Very keen here. Russell is out again so we can expect something similar to their game yesterday and the role for Beverley was awesome as he almost finished with a triple double in 31 minutes (10/10/8). He had 73 touches (up from 52), led the team in touch time at 5.9 minutes (up from just 3.8 on the season, ANT 2nd at 4.4), and most importantly here he had 15.0 potentials. The 8 dimes from 15 potentials is a conversion rate of 53%, which is actually below the 58% rate he’s at for the season. I wanted to take the 4.5 assists but the price isn’t there so am happy to take a better price at the 9.5 RA line. There’s still a bit of an edge on the straight rebounding line, as he’s around a 0.2 rebound per minute guy who should be playing 30+ here. Still managed to grab 10 last game thanks to some great offensive rebounding, even though the Clippers shot a ridiculous 60% from the field. This is a very winnable game for the Wolves and they honestly don’t need to do much differently, as Clips just couldn’t miss yesterday.

• Patrick Beverley over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Patrick Beverley over 7.5 Assists @ 6.2 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Patrick Beverley double double @ 17.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

Grizzlies vs Wizards 10:10am AEST

Been a very choppy season for Adams minutes wise, but it’s clear that he’s being used on a matchup basis which should give us a nice spot on an under here as the PR line of 18.5 is set bang on his average for the season. He’s coming off back to back 30 minute games, but obviously he was being used to guard Jokic as JJJ just can’t quite handle those big centres. Before the two games against Denver he played 17 min against Portland, 21 min against the Warriors, and 18 minutes against Miami so I’d expect somewhere around that 20 minute mark in this one. With so many guys on the roster deserving of minutes, it does make sense to cut Adams down when the matchup allows as JJJ can handle the 5 most nights. Wizards have given up the 4th fewest points to centres on the season, and are about mid pack in rebounds. He had a big start to the season, but over the last 5 games he’s down at 0.59 PR per minute.

• Steven Adams UNDER 18.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Pacers vs Blazers 1:10pm AEST

He’s come in and done is job absolutely perfectly so far this season, scoring double figures in every game, but with Levert back the role has changed and he’s going to need to rely on strong efficiency from here out as the usage just isn’t going to be there. Levert got right up to 31 minutes yesterday so the tracking stats from that game are probably a decent representation. The numbers are unsurprisingly down across the board, with just 1.8 minutes of touch time (down from 2.9), 50 touches (down from 62), 30 front court touches (down from 36), 3 potentials (down from 4.4), 5 drives (down from 7.6), and most importantly his usage was down at just 11.9% (from 20.8%). There is only one basketball, and he’s now 4th option at best, so I don’t expect him to be getting too many opportunities to create for himself. Brogdon’s 20% and Sabonis 15% usage rates from last game can certainly both come up as well. Would be a positive if Lamb plays, who’s currently questionable.

• Chris Duarte UNDER 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Magic vs Spurs 10:10am AEST

I’ve already run you through how good Dejounte’s role is, and this matchup is just so so perfect for him. Magic’s defence is not good at all, with the second worst rating in the league at 111.4, and part of this is due to their awful transition defence as they have an absolutely insane 152.0 D rating off rebounds in transition. This plays straight into the hands of the Spurs who lead the league in pace off rebounds and have the third highest points per possession in transition. If you’ve watched much Spurs you know Dejounte is the guy who drives this pace, as they box out so he can grab the board and run it straight back at the opposing team, very Westbrook-OKC-esque. The whole Spurs team are in good spots today.

• Dejounte Murray over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Dejounte Murray Triple Double @ 15.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

Knicks vs Bucks 10:40am AEST

Same reasoning as last time with the lines still priced based off his hot shooting, and he gets a date with Jrue here.

• Kemba Walker UNDER 18.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit

Knicks vs Bucks 10:40am AEST

Staking Plan – 6.7 units out

• Patrick Beverley over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Patrick Beverley over 7.5 Assists @ 6.2 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Patrick Beverley double double @ 17.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Steven Adams UNDER 18.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Chris Duarte UNDER 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Dejounte Murray over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Dejounte Murray Triple Double @ 15.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Kemba Walker UNDER 18.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Miles Bridges over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Miles Bridges over 29.5 Points @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport