NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 4/5

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JANUARY 26: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics reacts against the New Orleans Pelicans during a game at the Smoothie King Center on January 26, 2020 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Results:

• 58.33 Units Profit
• 11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

As we thought it was just 3 a 3 point fest for the Celtics with the Bucks just taking away everything at the rim over-helping off the Celtics shooters. Celtics weren’t able to capitalise on their looks shooting just 36% on 22! wide open 3s as well just just 35% on 23! open 3s. 45 open or wide open 3s is a lot. White comes in here and as the weakest shooter we know the Bucks are going to let him shoot so he has some pretty insane upside if he can get his shot falling despite him not being the best shooter. Scattering a few bets on him. Strong lean on him staying under his 13.5 points *but* as mentioned they will be leaving him open to shoot 3s so he should get pretty decent volume to bust us if he’s knocking them down.

Similar story with Brown here as he really struggled inside last game with 9 of his 13 FGA coming from 3. Not convinced his hammy is right and his line has gone up a couple of points here with Smart out, despite his production taking a dip with Smart off the court. During the season Brown averaged 26.5 Points per 36 with Smart ON (30.9% USG), dipping to 22.2 Points per 36 with Smart OFF and White ON (28.6% USG). Stayed under this in all 4 first round games and Bucks are a much tougher defensive assignment than the Nets. Bucks used Jrue on Smart for 15.5 partial possessions in G (just 11.7 on Brown) which all have to funnel somewhere so expecting a bit more Jrue coverage on Brown to make things even tougher. Will get 3 point volume.

Staking Plan – 1.6 units out

• Derrick White UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 4.20 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Derrick White UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 17.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Jaylen Brown UNDER 25.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Jaylen Brown UNDER 25.5 Points / Over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 11.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Jaylen Brown UNDER 25.5 Points / Over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 34.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Jaylen Brown UNDER 32.5 Points / Over 5.5 3 Pointers @ 26.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
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