NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 4/12

Frustrating day today with some guys in good injury related spots in awful matchups. Really trying to get the volume up but it’s just tough with sharper lines around especially in regards to injuries. Also, will try have some bets out tonight for tomorrow’s slate but if not then it’s probably likely I’ll be taking the day off. Feel free to hit me on twitter if you want any particular thoughts or leans.

Results:

• -9.20 Units Loss
• -10% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

No bets in any of the early games but some thoughts;

Dedmon should see big minutes and is an OK play with how Lowry likes to run PNR and is an excellent passer, but the Pacers have a top 5 centre defence in the league. The 3.00+ for a 3 pointer is an ok price with the big minutes. Herro should feast but his lines are probably about right.

The Cavs Wiz game is going to be slooow with two good defences. Was close to betting Kuzma again but he exploded against them with 22 earlier in the season and might be looking to break out of his little slump. Should get clean looks on the perimeter with Mobley trying to contest everything humanly possible at the rim likely leaving Kuz open. Going to be tough for the Wiz centres scoring inside.

Embiid and Capela both to make things tough on each other and neither of them have great numbers against one another with a pretty large sample thanks to the 7 game series. Could be a Huerter spot with the Hawks wing depth so limited right now and he absolutely torched them in the game 7 matchup by hunting Curry repeatedly, maybe that happens again.

Role for Cole Anthony is so good right now without Suggs but again it’s pretty hard to be into him at 32.5 PRA, it’s just such a high number. Did have 8+ minutes of touch time and 17 drives last game and against this shite Rockets defence he could be in a big spot. Should be able to rack up some easy dimes with Bamba and WCJ getting easy rolls to the rim. The 5.50 double double is decent (has 3 10+ rebound games which is a bit of a bonus).

Jazz vs Celtics 1:10pm AEST

He’s quietly putting together a nice season but it’s very hard to be into Rudy today. He has a fairly limited offensive arsenal as he relies so heavily on PNR and put backs for his points, which makes him susceptible to some rough offensive games. Boston give up the second fewest points to centres in the league, largely by limiting PNR giving up the 4th fewest points as well as giving up the 8th fewest points per game on put backs. It should be a pretty slow paced game and am happy to take the plus money here.

• Rudy Gobert UNDER 13.5 Points @ 2.05 with B365 – 1 unit

Suns vs Warriors 2:10pm AEST

Pretty against most of the Suns here today as I think this one could get out of hand. Mikal is a very good defender but the praise he was getting for his defence on Curry was ludicrous in my opinion, yes he made Curry work but at the end of the day he just missed good shots, and the tracking data backed that up with as all 14 of his 3 pointers were either open or wide open. This game script is likely going to play a lot different, with the Suns on the road b2b (3rd game in 4 nights) against a rested Warriors team who will certainly be motivated to get one back on the Suns here at home. Shamet got the spot start yesterday against Detroit and really couldn’t have asked for a better matchup there, and he did play well but still only finished with 18 PRA in 31 minutes despite going 4-8 from 3. It’s going to be much tougher on him today and the Suns have multiple lineups combinations that could cap the upside on his minutes. Suns will definitely try and funnel everything through Ayton again as it worked so well last game, but Warriors will be prepared which may limit him opening shots up elsewhere, which is my only concern and why I am not betting Crowder u9.5 points as well.

• Landry Shamet UNDER 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Lakers vs Clippers 2:10pm AEST

Wouldn’t take any price lower than this but with Dwight, AD, Lebron all out there, there just aren’t enough rebounds to go around. We don’t really have a sample of them all together with all the time missed this season, but the AD/Lebron/Westy trio has 195 minutes and Westy is only at 6.1 boards per 36. The Ad/Westy/Dwight trio has 47 minutes and Westy is at 6.0 boards per 36. The 4 man lineup of Lebron/Westy/AD and Deandre (using him here to try get a sample, he has similar rebounding rates to Dwight so should be an OK gauge) has 75 minutes and Westy is at 5.3 rebounds per 36.

• Russell Westbrook UNDER 8.5 Rebounds @ 1.74 with B365 – 1.25 units

Staking Plan – 3.25 units out

• Rudy Gobert UNDER 13.5 Points @ 2.05 with B365 – 1 unit
• Landry Shamet UNDER 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Russell Westbrook UNDER 8.5 Rebounds @ 1.74 with B365 – 1.25 units

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