NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 4/11

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 04: OG Anunoby #3 of the Toronto Raptors in action against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on January 04, 2020 in New York City. Toronto Raptors defeated the Brooklyn Nets 121-102. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Results:

• -7.10 Units Loss
• -17% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Raptors vs Wizards 10:10am AEST

OG 30+ Points last game was 20.00 which I had a real good look at but looked ahead but ultimately decided against it because of the matchup. A bit of the value is gone now but the role without Scottie is just so so good. He played 41!! minutes, and has another island game tomorrow so should be ready for another big workload. He led the team with a 31.3% usage (which is seriously elite over 41 minutes), led the team in front court touches with 47.0 (next highest 36) and had 3.2 minutes of touch time. He finished with a ridiculous 36/6/2 despite some pretty strong Knicks defence, no reason he can’t go off again in a far easier matchup, and the PRA line is only up 1.

• OG Anunoby over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• OG Anunoby over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

I just don’t think this line has accounted for Gafford’s place back in the lineup. He missed 2.5 games, where Beal had 10,8,7 boards but in the 3 full games they’ve played together Beal has only grabbed 3,3,2. With Gafford on the court he averages just 3 rebounds per 36 at a 3.6 rebound %, but with Gafford off the court that spikes to 9.2% at 6.4 boards per 36. Raptors are one of the best rebounding teams in the league giving up the second fewest per game.

• Bradley Beal UNDER 5.5 Rebounds @ 1.75 with TAB – 1 unit

Magic vs Celtics 10:10am AEST

Want to get a bit of exposure here with the two bad defences. Cole has been awesome to start the season, but with him likely seeing a lot of Smart today it might open things up for Suggs. I don’t trust him at all with such a wide variety of both minutes and usage outcomes but he’s capable of taking over games if he gets going. He’s hit this mark twice in the season already through 8 games.

• Jalen Suggs over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Knicks vs Pacers 10:10am AEST

He keeps sucking me in but I just do not buy this efficiency from Kemba at all to start the season. He’s averaging just 21.2 PRA on the season, despite shooting a ridiculous 56.8% from behind the arc. He is yet to miss a wide open 3 pointer (7-7), and he is 11-19 (58%) on his open 3s where he shot just 30% last season. With Brogdon and Levert back in the lineup, they now have multiple guards who can take advantage of Kemba on the defensive end so it might be tough to keep him out on the floor at times, especially when they have so many other options.

• Kemba Walker UNDER 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Wolves vs Clippers 11:10am AEST

Chris Finch is up there with the most matchup dependant coaches in the league and the guy who is the most volatile is Vanderbilt. Something that was noticeable last year, and it’s clear the trend has continued this season. He has played 17+ minutes just twice this season, the first one against the Bucks where Finch used him as the primary guy on Giannis (7:29 minutes and 38 partial possessions – which is a ton), and other game was against Orlando who use the double big lineup of Bamba and WCJ. Clippers are an awful matchup for him with the amount of small ball lineups they play so I’ve got him somewhere in the 10-15 minute range here, which would make this a pretty strong under for a guy who is at just 0.66 PRA per minute this season, and 0.69 PRA per minute last season. The potential risk would be if McDaniels gets in foul trouble on PG, but I still think Finch would rather go with Okogie on him than JV. Not starting is a good sign, but had to change the bet slightly as he’s off the board on some bookies.

• Jared Vanderbilt UNDER 13.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

This starting lineup is something. Beverly has a 13% usage, Okogie 10%, and McDaniels 9% so absolutely everything is going to be run through Edwards and Towns. They are both great options today, but Edwards ability to handle the ball and get his own shot whenever just makes me a bit more confident he’s the one who will have the top usage here.

• Anthony Edwards over 27.5 Points + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Anthony Edwards over 7.5 Assists @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 5.4 units out

• OG Anunoby over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• OG Anunoby over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Bradley Beal UNDER 5.5 Rebounds @ 1.75 with TAB – 1 unit
• Jalen Suggs over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kemba Walker UNDER 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Jared Vanderbilt UNDER 13.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Anthony Edwards over 27.5 Points + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Anthony Edwards over 7.5 Assists @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

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