NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 3/5

Results:

• 66.18 Units Profit
• 14% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Looking like Dinwiddie may be the odds man out here. Luka has had some time off after we saw him get up to 40 minutes in the close out game and I would expect him to be somewhere around there again today. They need Bullock and DFS out there for their defence so and we’ve seen Kidd play them ridiculous minutes. The way Kidd was able to get Dinwiddie minutes in G6 vs Utah was by running the small ball group with DFS at centre. I really don’t think they’ll be able to get away with that here against the Suns as Ayton can really punish smaller guys. We are very likely to see 48 minutes of Powell/Kleber which puts a squeeze on the rest of the rotation. Dinwiddie has feasted in non Luka minutes this season at 28/4/6 per 36 but that is cut waaaaaaaaay down to 14/4/4 per 36 with Luka on the court. With Luka likely set for 40+ he won’t get many of those ‘powerplay’ minutes and we could really see his minutes floor bottom out here. In Luka’s return we saw Dinwiddie play just 23 minutes despite Luka only playing 33 as well as there being 3 minutes without a centre so he could even see less than that (obviously changes and can cut into Bullock or Brunson if he’s hot, but in that case we are probably toast anyway).

Big offence/defence trade off here with Herro. No Embiid really plays into Miami’s defensive scheme where they’ll be able to switch most things and not pay the price with Embiid inside. Pretty much all of Philly’s offence will be coming from the perimeter with Harden and Maxey and Herro has shown to just be such a liability that Spo might not be comfortable playing him big minutes as he clearly feels a lot better about the defence of Strus and Vincent (now Dipo as well). Maybe Philly go small to close so Miami do as well which opens up another wing spot in the place of Tucker, but I think we are likely going to see the starters together closing this one out, with Dipo maybe taking Vincent’s place. Doc is one of the best coaches in the league at continuously doing the same thing (if it’s working) over and over so he won’t hesitate to attack Herro, like he did near the end of the regular season with Maxey and Milton going at him (and scoring) every possession getting the win despite no Harden or Embiid. Think Duncan has a very quiet series for the same reason.

Staking Plan – 3 units out

• Spencer Dinwiddie UNDER 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.92 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Tyler Herro UNDER 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Victor Oladipo UNDER 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport