NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 29/12

Results:

• -0.55 Units Loss
• -0% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

76ers vs Raptors 11:40am AEST

He might not have the rotational minutes downside today (blowout a definite chance) which is usually nice to have with unders as there’s no Shake in the lineup but this numbers just too high. He cleared this 2 games back against the Hawks where he scored 17, but he came off the bench there and it was clear they needed him to be aggressive with that bench unit as there wasn’t much offence out there at all. He’s 0nly cleared this in 2 of his last 10 (including game off bench) and is still at just 11.9 points per 36 while sharing the court with Embiid, Harris and Seth. Raptors are missing a stack of guys and they did just get 144 put on them by the Cavs, but PG has been a tough matchup all season against the Raps as they give up the 3rd fewest points. Embiid has the clear path to least resistance tonight regardless if Precious or Birch play.

• Tyrese Maxey UNDER 16.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit

Cavs vs Pelicans 12:10pm AEST

It’s all about Ricky today for the Cavs. This line is just too low. He’s 16/8 per 36 this season (I’ve got him down for 36, with a close to 40 upside) which is just a tick under his line for today. Take Garland and Sexton out and he’s at 21/8 and today gets the dream matchup against the Pels and their 24th ranked defence. They just have no guard depth at all so everything is going to be running through him and he could get up to 8-9 minutes of touch time. Pels have been one of the best matchups for lead ball handlers all season.

• Ricky Rubio over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Rockets vs Lakers 12:10pm AEST

Double effect of both KPJ and Jalen Green coming back into the Rockets lineup today, both of whom should be able to get up there in minutes with the extra day off yesterday. Gordon has been great for the Rockets since they got hurt, and over his last 13 games he’s averaging 4.7 dimes creating a nice 8.8 potentials but he’s been right up at 4.8 minutes of touch time in that span which is going to come dramatically down today. We’ve got some decent samples to work with from earlier in the season, and while KPJ and Green are on the court with Gordon he’s down at just 2.1 dimes per 36, and the 36 minutes is much more than I’m expecting him to play today on the b2b. He didn’t clear this line in any of the first 11 games of the season, before clearing it in back to back games where he played 38,36 minutes while KPJ was out. With the low line it’s always possible we get unlucky and he ends with 4 dimes from 4 potentials but can’t pass this one up.

• Eric Gordon UNDER 3.5 Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Wizards vs Heat 12:10pm AEST

He’s going to have to play so much in this one and should be a pretty large part of the offence. The Wizards have been pretty stacked at the 3/4 since Bertans came back so he hasn’t really flashed a minute ceiling, but no Harrell really changes things. If you recall in the playoffs last season against the Sixers, Gafford really struggled staying on the court for long stretches so he might not even be able to get past 30 in this one. With no other 5s on the roster, Bertans will likely back up Gafford as we saw him do last year clearing out a ton of 4 minutes. Harrell and Beal are the two top dogs on the Wizards for usage so there is going to be a ton of offence to go around. Kuz is 20/10/3 per 36 without Beal and Harrell on the season.

• Kyle Kuzma over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit

Yurtseven is just a stat stuffer and he gets a dream spot here today against the Wizards who give up the 7th most points and 7th most boards to centres in the league. The Heat are so short handed in the front court which saw him get up to 33 minutes last game, and now they have lost Haslem as well (played 11 minutes). Gafford loves chasing blocks which opens up a stack of put back chances for opposing centres, with the Wiz giving up the 6th most put back points per game. He’s coming off a 16/15 game.

• Omer Yurtseven over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

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Staking Plan – 5 units out

• Tyrese Maxey UNDER 16.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Ricky Rubio over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Eric Gordon UNDER 3.5 Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kyle Kuzma over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Omer Yurtseven over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

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