NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 28/10

Game just went completely off script today with Steph only getting up 14 shot attempts and Poole being awful so they funnelled more offence through Wiggins. Very unlikely both those things happen again, so will likely be coming back to this one against the Grizz on Friday.

Results:

• -5.8 Units Loss
• -22% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Heat vs Nets 10:40am AEST

He’s yet to have a big breakout game, but all signs are positive and this is probably the best matchup he’s had. The makeup of this Heat team has changed significantly, meaning Bam’s role has also changed. Last season they used him as the hub of the offence running a lot through him at the elbow, but there really hasn’t been much of that this season as he’s in a score first role. It’s so obvious watching that when he catches the ball he’s looking to score not pass, and the numbers back that up with his touch time down from 3.1 to 2.5, 6.4 elbow touches have come down to 3.7, and potential assists have come down from 9.9 to 7.0. With the low usage Tucker alongside him, and the pass first Lowry who he already seemingly has great chemistry with, it made sense he was going to see a usage bump this season. Early signs in PS were huge where he had a 30.0% usage, putting up 28 points per 36, and that carried over to their opening game where he had 20 points in 23 minutes. They then versed the big Sabonis/Turner front-court without Lowry where the usage was there but struggled going 6-15, and Jimmy just took over in their recent game against the Magic. I like Bam to have a big game here as he’ll likely see a lot of Griffin and Aldridge guarding him.

• Bam Adebayo over 16.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Bam Adebayo 20+ Pts/Miami Win (Player Performance Double) @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Bam Adebayo over 24.5 Points @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Blazers vs Grizzlies 1:10pm AEST

Awesome start to the season for Bane, off the back of a strong summer league where he averaged 21.5/4.8/3.8 and pre-season where he had a 19/4/5 per 36 line. His usage of 23.3% in the PS has carried over to the season where he has a team second 22.5% usage (behind Ja). His role looks rock solid, playing 30 minutes in all 3 games and has taken 15,15,16 shots across the 3 resulting in a 19.3/4.7/3.0 line. His 56.5 eFG% is a shade under his 58% last season so there’s nothing he’s doing at the moment which is unsustainable and gets a good matchup against the Blazers.

• Desmond Bane over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.2 units

Pacers vs Raptors 10:40am AEST

Raptors offence has just looked so bad at times it scares me off here, but there is a ton of upside in this game so I’m just getting a little exposure incase it pans out. Pacers starting group is running at a blazing 107 pace, and Nurse is just continually beating the drum about playing with more pace. Both of these coaches are happy to run their starters out there for big minutes so if things pan out, this is a game where there could be some really big lines. Main bet is on Sabonis who has a big size advantage here against anybody on the Raptors roster it should really set him up for a big night. The role is so good as he leads the NBA in front court touches with 55.0 (Jokic 50.5 2nd), and paint touches (12.8).

• Domantas Sabonis over 20.5 Points @ 1.93 with Sportsbet – 0.8 units
• Domantas Sabonis over 29.5 Points @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Fred VanVleet over 25.5 Points + Assists / Scottie Barnes over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists / Domantas Sabonis over 21.5 Points @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 3.5 units out

• Bam Adebayo over 16.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Bam Adebayo 20+ Pts/Miami Win (Player Performance Double) @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Bam Adebayo over 24.5 Points @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Desmond Bane over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Domantas Sabonis over 20.5 Points @ 1.93 with Sportsbet – 0.8 units
• Domantas Sabonis over 29.5 Points @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Fred VanVleet over 25.5 Points + Assists / Scottie Barnes over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists / Domantas Sabonis over 21.5 Points @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport