NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 26/10

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - FEBRUARY 10: Malcolm Brogdon #7 of the Indiana Pacers dribbles the ball against the Brooklyn Nets at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on February 10, 2020 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Results:

• -6.71 Units Loss
• -35% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Pacers vs Bucks 10:10am AEST

I guess the line has come down due to the 4 assists last game, but he ran super unlucky with his 4 dimes coming from 15 potentials in a game everyone was cold. The role is still awesome with 107 touches per game (2nd in league), 8.2 minutes of touch time (2nd in league), 28.0 drives (1st in league), 15.0 potentials per game (10th in league). All these are a little inflated with the two OT games, but there’s no reason this number should’ve come back down in a home game. I mentioned in the write up for Lowry the other day how the Bucks D will struggle without Lopez, and now Jrue is doubtful as well so I’m expecting Pacers to put up a good score in this one. It’s a bad matchup for Sabonis with Giannis likely on him, so expect more to run through Brog.

• Malcolm Brogdon over 5.5 Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Malcolm Brogdon over 9.5 Assists @ 9.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

Blazers vs Clippers 1:40pm AEST

He’s come out scorching hot, similarly to last season before he got hurt. Getting a very reasonable number here for how good the role is and how good he’s looked. He’s rocking a team high 33.1% usage rate through the two games, where he’s dropped 34 in 35 mins & 28 in 29 mins. There only seems to be tracking data available for their more recent game, but CJ led the team in touch time at 4.4 minutes (did play more than Dame) and front court touches (29.0). No Powell here who’s minutes will likely go to Little, a lower usage player, meaning it should be pretty easy for CJ to maintain his high usage.

• C.J McCollum over 22.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

No Powell and Snell here and it was Little who’s looking the biggest beneficiary. He got the start in the second half against the Suns finishing with an 11/7/2 line in his 27 minutes, playing a huge 16 second half minutes, checking out at the 4 minute mark in the 4th so there may have even been some more upside. This line looks very low for how involved he was, with 26 front court touches against the Suns. He was pretty productive last season with a 12.5/7.2/1.3 per 36 line, and he definitely looks like he’s taken a bit of a step forward in his third season (still only 21yo). Should see upwards of 30 minutes here.

• Nassir Little over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Raptors vs Bulls 10:40am AEST

There’s no way I’m buying the Bulls 4th ranked defence. 2 of their 3 games have been against the Pistons who figure to be a bottom 3 offence, then they had 112 put on them by a Pels squad on the road missing Zion. Was nice to see OG break out of his slump against the Mavs, and he should be set for a full workload here after playing just 31 minutes yesterday. He’s topped out at 33 minutes so far this season, but Nurse has shown in the past he’s happy to play his main guys closer to 40 in tight games, so there’s definitely some more minute upside there. The role remains great, as he leads the team with a 25.2% usage rate through 3 games.

• OG Anunoby over 16.5 Points @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit

Wolves vs Pelicans 11:10am AEST

Everything has set up for him so far this season with a blowout in the first game where he played the final 7 minutes, and Towns fouling out in the second game where he played the final 6:30, yet he hasn’t crossed this line with 13 and 15 PRA. There was a bit of buzz around some Towns/Reid overlap, but with a full roster we are yet to see a single second of it with Reid playing strictly a Towns backup. Towns hasn’t cracked 30 minutes yet but assuming this plays close I’m expecting a 35/13 split.

• Naz Reid UNDER 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.5 units

The Pelicans are just so so limited offensively outside of their main 3 guys in Ingram, NAW and JV. It was NAW who had the big usage spike last game at almost 30%, and although he was awful going 6-24, it was interesting to hear Green say after the game that he loved to see NAW take 24 shots. Definitely makes me think we could see another big usage game from him here, but he’s just been so inconsistent it’s hard to have much on him. More than capable of having huge games so just having a little bit on his upside.

• Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 24.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 5.8 units out

• Malcolm Brogdon over 5.5 Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Malcolm Brogdon over 9.5 Assists @ 9.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
• C.J McCollum over 22.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Nassir Little over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• OG Anunoby over 16.5 Points @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Naz Reid UNDER 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.5 units
• Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 24.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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