NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 24/12

Results:

• -9.5 Units Loss
• -6% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

** Going to try add a few notes for some of the games that there aren’t bets for but it’s a busy morning so might not be able to touch on all of them.

Hawks vs 76ers

Tough one here. Hawks are so depleted and on the b2b so it’s hard to really bet any of them with confidence as this is likely headed for a blowout, and now that they have added some extra guys on the back end of the rotation it means Reddish, Bogey, Delon, Collins won’t be out there for garbage time. Reddish was the clear alpha yesterday but he’s going to get the tough matchup with Matisse here which could really limit him, so I think it might put Delon in a nice spot as he’s probably going to have Curry on him. Going to play huge minutes and he can’t really be any less involved than he was yesterday so he’d be the guy I’m looking at. 19.5 PRA is reasonable.

Rockets vs Pacers

Levert is the clear beneficiary of no Brogdon with a 5% usage bump and it’s an awesome matchup for him but there might be some value in pivoting to Sabonis who should be able to feast inside. They just aren’t running anything through him this season which has been extremely annoying and we haven’t really seen a big usage game in a while so he probably needs to rely on efficiency. Jalen coming back takes the rest of the Rockets perimeter guys off the board in a bad matchup, could be some under value with Garrison.

Knicks vs Wizards 11:40am AEST

Double play here on the Wiz guys. Both get huge boosts without Beal and I’m very surprised to see these lines so low in a good matchup. Dinwiddie gets a 6.4% usage bump and Kuzma gets a 4.5% bump without him. Kuzma is 18.3/10.0/2.6 per 36 while Dinwiddie is 19/7/8.

• Kyle Kuzma over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.25 units
• Spencer Dinwiddie over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.25 units

Mavericks vs Bucks 12:40pm AEST

Taking a bit of a risk on this one as I really don’t think KP plays. Still ok with it if he does. This line definitely feels high for someone like DFS, but I have been very impressed with him and more importantly the role he is currently in. With a few bets on Brunson recently I have been watching Mavs games a bit closer and he has been so much more involved on the offence as opposed to when Luka plays and he’s just a catch and shoot guy in the corner. The numbers back that up with some pretty significant bumps across all tracking stats, resulting in 3 straight covers and a 17.3/6.0/3.3 line over the last 3 games. Also worth noting KP and Hardaway played in 2 of these, so I’ll include the most recent game they missed too where the role was even better. Over the last 3 he’s at 5.7 drives per game (2.5 on season, 8.0 last game), 38.7 front court touches (25.2 on season, 41.0 last game), 1.7 minutes of touch time (1.2 on season, 1.9 last game), 17.4% usage (13.5% on season, 20.7% last game), 6.0 potential assists (4.1 on season, 6.0 last game). He averages 20.5 PRA per 40 minutes this season, which is bang on this line, before even taking into account the huge role change. They have run out of NBA quality guys so it does make sense to get DFS more involved again. Matchup is fine against the Bucks on a b2b who are relying on Boogie as their centre. He’s at 15.7/6.6/2.9 per 36 without Luka + KP (should play more than 36, even more guys out today), in a 200+ minute sample. Also quite into the 7.5 RA line.

• Dorian Finney Smith over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Topsport – 1 unit

Detroit vs Miami

Been tough watching Bey turn it on after predicting the big role change but he had an absolute stinker in that first game. Without Cade too today he could just absolutely chuck against a Miami team who give up the 3rd most 3s in the league. There’s so much touch time to go around and we’ll probably see bumps for Saben (who’s been pretty impressive, also been absolutely torching the G League at 30.6 PPG, so he can fill it up) and CoJo.

Thunder vs Suns 1:10pm AEST

Pains me to do this but this is just such an awful spot for Shai. He gets a date with Mikal on the second night of a b2b away from home in a game with a 15 point spread. He’s played in 3 b2b games this season and he struggled averaging just 17 pts. If you recall when we were on Shai the other day, I mentioned his significant usage bump without Dort, well it goes the other way too and he’s at just 17.0 points per 36 minutes when he shares the court with both Dort and Giddey this season in almost 500 minutes. So many ways this can go under in a nightmare spot.

• Shai-Gilgeous Alexander UNDER 22.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Shai-Gilegous Alexander UNDER 17.5 Points / UNDER 4.5 Rebounds / UNDER 4.5 Assists @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 4.6 units out

• Dorian Finney Smith over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Kyle Kuzma over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.25 units
• Spencer Dinwiddie over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.25 units
• Shai-Gilgeous Alexander UNDER 22.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Shai-Gilegous Alexander UNDER 17.5 Points / UNDER 4.5 Rebounds / UNDER 4.5 Assists @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

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