NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 23/12

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - APRIL 14: Darius Garland #10 of the Cleveland Cavaliers brings the ball up court against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

Results:

• -9.5 Units Loss
• -6% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Celtics vs Cavs 11:40am AEST

A few things line up here. I would’ve loved to get u7.5 assists, but am happy to pivot to u11.5 RA as opposed to taking the u6.5 dimes. Cavs are so depleted, so on first thought it might make sense for Garland to go off and he still might but I really see him taking more of a scoring role today. With all the outs it means Rubio likely starts, and is going to play a ton and several times Bickerstaff has mentioned that when they are sharing the court they prefer Garland’s off ball game and the numbers back that up with Rubio at 7.6 dimes and Garland at 6.0 per 36 when they are on the court together. Other key factor here is no Allen. Allen is an amazing source of dimes for both Rubio and Garland due to his ridiculous 70% from the field while being assisted on 72% of his buckets. Allen has been assisted by Garland 56 times this season, which is 26% of Garland’s 212 total assists, and almost 2 per game. Garland is 8.7 assists per 36 with Allen on the court, and just 5.7 per 36 with him off. Celtics give up the 3rd fewest assists in the league due to their switch happy defence. Should still have a fair few potentials but he won’t get any/many of the easy ones at the rim so will be relying on jump shooters. Has stayed under this in 3 straight and I’m pretty keen on the Celtics today despite how good the Cavs have been. Mmm not sure what happened to the price here was 1.88 at time of writing but still like it.

• Darius Garland UNDER 11.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.76 with Sportsbet – 1.25 unit

Staking Plan – 1.25 units out

• Darius Garland UNDER 11.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.76 with Sportsbet – 1.25 unit

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