NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 22/4

Jaren Jackson (YouTube)

Results:

• 66.18 Units Profit
• 14% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Could explode here. Adams is likely gone from the rotation (maybe gets a token start again) and JJJ’s numbers are just so good without him. He’s 22/8/2 per 36 without Adams and WITH Clarke, which jumps to 27/8/1 per 36 without Adams, Clarke & Tillman. Should get right up there in minutes assuming he can avoid foul trouble. Matchup is so good with the high pace and both teams likely going small for the majority of the game.

Only has 6 points in 37 minutes this series and as mentioned last game it is just a nightmare matchup. The Mavs literally only have one 5 man group that is effective in this series so expect them to run it out there as much as possible. Kleber loses some effectiveness if he’s not playing at the 5 and he had 0 overlap with Powell in G2. Only played 31 minutes there but knowing Kidd that could get into the mid 30s (may still be on a slight cap, so may still come off bench). Wouldn’t take 5.5.

Finch roasted Naz after the game and deservedly so. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get cut from the rotation in this one with Wolves potentially going Vando at backup C. Either way, all Towns needs to do is stay out of foul trouble and Finch will play him into the 40s (played 43 in G1, Naz played 5 min). Vando likely getting cut pretty hard here which is FInch’s counter to Grizz cutting Adams. Kat’s rebounding % goes from 14.4% (9.5 per 36) with Vando  to 17.9% (12.0 per 36) without.

Facu coming back into the rotation here has a few potential effects but Malone is a defensive first coach and he likes using Rivers on Steph so I think Facu could cut into Bones.

Staking Plan – 4.1 units out

• Jaren Jackson Jr over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Dwight Powell UNDER 6.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Naz Reid UNDER 9.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 / Karl Anthony Towns Double Double @ 2.75 with B365 – 1 unit
• Maxi Kleber over 2.5 3 Pointers / UNDER 9.5 Points @ 26.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Bones Hyland UNDER 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
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