NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 22/12

Results:

• -9.5 Units Loss
• -6% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Wolves vs Mavericks @ 12:40pm AEST

Struggled a bit projecting minutes in this one, but with Beverley and Vanderbilt joining Edwards, Prince and Okogie in protocols there’s just so many to go around. Almost all those players are defensive oriented, which does make me think Finch does something unexpected to get more defence into the lineup, but either way I think Beasley is headed for 36+ minutes. These two met just a couple of days ago and it was pretty clear Kidd didn’t want KAT beating them as he was aggressively doubling him the majority of times he got the ball. I would think he goes the same route here which limits KATs ceiling from a usage perspective, meaning there’s shots to go around. With Edwards and Bev off the court this season Beasley gets a 4.1% usage bump up to 23.7% putting up 17.5 Points per 36 despite shooting just 35% from the field. Had a team second 33 front court touches last game despite playing just 30 minutes and the presence of Beverley. He’s very active when he’s out there on the offensive end. Taking the PRA as without Vanderbilt there should be extra rebound chances (although there’s a good chance Wolves start Naz, will definitely see a lot of Naz/KAT overlap) and Beasley might get some on ball reps as a secondary playmaker.

• Malik Beasley over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Topsport – 1.25 units

Pretty keen to get some exposure to the Mavs side of the ball here as the Wolves defence is just missing so many key elements today as mentioned above. Regardless if KP plays or not today (I don’t think he will) the role is just excellent for Brunson right now and most importantly no Bev here who defended him really well last game, keeping him to 2-6 from the field for 6 points with 4 turnovers across 30 partial possessions. He finished that game with 18/11, despite being on the road against a much better defensive unit. He had a ridiculous 32! drives to go along with his 8.8 minutes of touch time, 51 front court touches and 22 potentials. Should smash today.

Had this written up at 26.5 PA before the Hardaway news but if anything this just makes me even more keen on Jalen despite the bigger number. The Mavericks roster is built around Luka and KP which essentially is just full of catch and shoot guys so they are now in a spot where they have almost no shot creation. Burke is literally the only other guy on the roster who can create. Jalen is going to be so so busy.

• Jalen Brunson over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit

Lakers vs Suns @ 2:10pm AEST

Plus money here? Sure. Absolutely everything went right for him last game against the Bulls minutes wise getting him up to 35 minutes but still only managed to get off 5 FGA (all 3s) finishing with 6 points. Definitely think it’s IT who gets impacted the most today likely moving back to the bench, but it’s very hard to see the 35 minute upside for Ellington with both THT and Howard coming back into the mix, and Ariza likely going to see more than the 15 minutes he saw in his season debut. With Howard back it means they’ll likely get more than the 20 traditional centre minutes they got last game, especially in a matchup against Ayton, which puts a squeeze on all the wing minutes. He only has 1 field goal in the last 9 games that isn’t a 3 pointer, so the key to this bet is definitely the 9.5 line meaning he’s likely going to have to hit 4 3’s to cook us. One of these alt bets would’ve cashed in 7 of his last 9 games.

• Wayne Ellington UNDER 9.5 Points @ 2.15 with B365 – 0.8 units
• Wayne Ellington UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 2.5 3s @ 26.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Wayne Ellington UNDER 6.5 Points / Over 1.5 3s @ 19.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

Pistons vs Knicks @ 11:40am AEST

There is just so much touch time, usage and most importantly minutes to go around on this Knicks team at the moment and it looks like Fournier has snapped out of funk at the right time. Happy to just ride the hot hand here as he has nobody behind him that can take his minutes, so even if he gets off to a slow start he’s likely going to play close to 40. Role was good last game (probably aided by how hot he was, can sometimes be very passive when he’s not hitting shots), with a team second 31 front court touches, and a surprising 3.8 minutes of touch time, as the Knicks were running the point by committee. Great matchup against the bad Pistons defence. He’s 22.1 PRA per 36 this season, which is only just shy of this number despite there being so many guys out today.

• Evan Fournier over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.91 with Topsport – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 4.25 units out

• Malik Beasley over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Topsport – 1.25 units
• Jalen Brunson over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Wayne Ellington UNDER 9.5 Points @ 2.15 with B365 – 0.8 units
• Wayne Ellington UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 2.5 3s @ 26.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Wayne Ellington UNDER 6.5 Points / Over 1.5 3s @ 19.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Evan Fournier over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.91 with Topsport – 1 unit

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