NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 21/12

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Everything lined up well for Cov yesterday, he hit some shots early while McLemore and Simons were cold so they stayed with him. Easy Hali cash, frustrating Pat Bev loss with a bunch of missed potentials to cash. Stunned IT got the start and even more surprised he got up to 32 minutes but an easy watch on the under anyway.

Results:

• -9.5 Units Loss
• -6% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Warriors vs Kings 2:40pm AEST

Hield was definitely better yesterday but the role in the first half still wasn’t great where he took just 5 shots and had a 5/0/3 line going into the break. He came out in the second half and went bezerko with a 24/3/1 second half line going 6-6 from 3. 18 of the points came in the 4th. It was pretty crazy to watch and he was just demanding the ball without planning on doing anything other than shooting. Although he gets another pace-up matchup today, he’s up against the 1st ranked defence instead of the 21st, away from home, and on a b2b. His eFG has dipped significantly this season on b2bs, from 52.6 down to 48.4%. He played 40 minutes and although Warriors are missing Wiggins (probably would’ve been on Hali anyway), they just have so many guys who can help slow Buddy down if need be. Line is just really high in what’s probably heading towards a blowout. Warriors have given up the second fewest points to SGs this season. Barnes has

• Buddy Hield UNDER 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit

Double play on Buddy here as I just think these lines are too high in a bad matchup. The Warriors give up the leagues fewest assists, as well as the second fewest rebounds. Over the 2 games since they’ve been depleted, he’s averaging 2 boards and 2.5 dimes, despite playing 38.2 minutes. He’s run hot on the dimes as well, with his total 5 assists coming from a TOTAL of 5 potentials across the two games. The Kings have been forced to play big due to their lack of available guards, which has impacted his rebounding rates. Metu, Barnes, Thompson, Jones and perhaps we see Holmes again today, are all good rebounders. Hali has even been crashing the glass of late.

• Buddy Hield UNDER 7.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Celtics vs Philly @ 11:40am AEST

Smart see’s a huge dip in production when Jaylen and Tatum both play. I didn’t include a few games where Brown was on heavy minutes restrictions, but when Jaylen and Tatum have both played together, Smart has stayed under this line 9 of the 11 games averaging just 17 PRA. Freedom is set to assume as many of Robbie’s minutes as he can handle without fouling out, and he has a 16% usage rate vs Robbie’s 12% as well as a 39% rebounding percentage vs Robbie’s 32%. These two teams met in Boston last week where Smart finished with 6/2/8 in his 32 minutes. He’s played 87 minutes alongside Dennis/Tatum/Brown (all starting) this season and his per 36 line is just 9.1/3.3/3.7 (16.1 PRA). He’ll be the usage low man with the starting group.

• Marcus Smart UNDER 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Bulls vs Rockets 12:10pm AEST

Bulls are just so short-handed so despite being on the b2b, their starters are all set for huge minutes again. No DJJ just bolsters Green’s minutes and he’s likely going to get into the mid 30s here. The rates all season have been excellent, putting up 7.4 boards and 1.3 dimes per 36 but does see increases in a decent 100 minute sample without Lavine and DJJ, where he’s at 10.1 RA per 36. It’s a very friendly matchup against the Rockets, and he’ll likely be out there for garbage time if that eventuates. Nice to get this at plus money.

• Javonte Green over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 2.15 with Topsport – 1 unit

With Brooks coming back into the mix today there has to be some minutes cut somewhere. Silas has been pretty reluctant to play Sengun/Wood together for extended stretches (has been doing it a bit over the last few games), but against this really small Bulls team it makes sense for them to play more of their wing guys. (Not betting it due to blowout risk but Lean Sengun u18.5 PRA)

Staking Plan – 4 unit out

• Buddy Hield UNDER 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Buddy Hield UNDER 7.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Marcus Smart UNDER 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Javonte Green over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 2.15 with Topsport – 1 unit

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