NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 16/12

Results:

• -9.20 Units Loss
• -10% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Rockets vs Cavs 11:10am AEST

Despite Wood missing this one and Sengun being one of the better per minute producers in the league, this number is just really high as I think the bookies have given him too many minutes. Sengun is 18/9/5 per 36 on the season but there are very few centres in the league who can handle that many minutes. Wood hasn’t missed a game yet this season but he did play just 9 minutes against OKC and Sengun only got up to 13 minutes in that one. Theis will come back into the rotation, possibly even start over Sengun. Fouls could be our friend today as Sengun averages 6.2 per 36. Tough matchup against the best defence in the league over the last month who have given up the fewest points to centres on the season. I’ve got Sengun at 28 minutes (which would comfortably be a season high) FWIW.

• Alperen Sengun UNDER 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Heat vs 76ers  11:10am AEST

Was very surprised to see Vincent close over Herro last game, but maybe it was something to do with the injury that is keeping him out today. The Heat have 10 available players today, but that includes Haslem and Garrett who have combined for a total of 12 first half minutes this season so we know Spo doesn’t want to play them. That essentially leaves 8 guys. Lowry, Vincent, Robinson, Tucker, Dedmon who will likely be the starting group and Strus Okpala and Yurtseven off the bench. With Herro missing they are extremely thin on ball handling today. For the season, Butler, Herro and Bam combine for 12.3 minutes of touch time and throughout Lowry’s career he has never been a ball dominant guy so it’s more likely Vincent sees a spike in touch time. They literally don’t have anybody else other than Lowry or Vincent to handle the ball so expect big minutes from both of them, and Vincent should be out there for garbage time if that eventuates. This play is stronger if Embiid sits, as it means Heat don’t need to play 48 minutes of Dedmon/Yurt which could get Vincent and Lowry up to 40 (might get there anyway). Lowry will get Thybulle making it a much better spot for Vincent.

• Gabe Vincent over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Thunder vs Pelicans  12:10pm AEST

He’s had a couple of rough games in blowout losses but no Dort here just solidifies the already amazing role and gets an awesome bounce back spot. He gets a nice 4% usage bump up to 32.2% putting up 29 points per 36. This Pelicans team is just bad, and they have the 26th ranked defence on the season. At home it would be very surprising if they can’t hang around.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 21.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Heat vs 76ers  11:10am AEST

Okpala might be on the outs again here as Spo really liked him at the 4/5 with Tucker, but with Embiid playing against this big Philly team, they are likely going to run a similar rotation to what they did against Cavs (Herro’s 24 split between Strus/Vincent and a couple to Okpala). Line is too high in a bad matchup.

• KZ Okpala UNDER 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 4.2 units out

• Alperen Sengun UNDER 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Gabe Vincent over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 21.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• KZ Okpala UNDER 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

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