NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 13/12

Results:

• -9.20 Units Loss
• -10% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Pistons vs Nets 10:10am AEST

Surprised we haven’t seen a bump in Bey’s PRA line here, as this is where it’s been routinely set over the last few weeks despite Grant being in the side. He’s obviously out today and Bey’s production with him off the court this season significantly improves, with a really strong 17.5/7.7/3.9 per 36 line with a 2.1% usage bump in a 195 minute sample. Bey’s minute’s have been extremely choppy, making him a nice under bet over the last little while but without Grant, I think most of that downside is gone as he’ll be getting minutes at both the 3 and the 4. I’ve got him conservatively pencilled in for 32 but we could see him get into the high 30s if the game stays close. The matchup is fine against the switch happy Nets, as Bey is capable of creating his own shot against smaller guys he should be in advantageous situations consistently throughout the game.

• Saddiq Bey over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Saddiq Bey Double Double @ 17.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

The line is obviously high but it is too hard to pass up KD today. This number is only just shy of his 41.5 PRA average for the season, but without Harden here he should just crush. Gets a massive 4.6% usage bump without Harden up to 36.2% putting up a ridiculous 32.2/9.8/8.6 (50.6 PRA) per 36 line. Harden’s 9.0 minutes of touch time is only second to Luka, and all of that needs to go somewhere but with how limited the rest of this roster is, have to assume everything runs through KD. We know Nash won’t hesitate to play him 40 minutes if the game is close, and it helps it’s an island game. Pistons don’t have anyone who can guard him. Cam Thomas will likely assume a fair bit of usage today off the bench, as he’s really the only other player on the roster who can create his own shot consistently.

• Kevin Durant over 43.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Topsport – 1 unit

Mavericks vs Thunder 11:10am AEST

Luka has missed 4 games this season and Brunson has stepped up in all 4 of them, covering this line in each with 8,9,10,8 dimes averaging 8.8. What might be the most impressive part is that 3 of the games were against either Phoenix or the Clippers, both in the top 4 defensively this season and both very good at limiting assists (the other was against Memphis). Gets a much better matchup against the Thunder here who give up the 8th most assists per game.

• Jalen Brunson over 6.5 Assists @ 1.80 with Topsport – 1 unit

Shai’s role remains elite and has nightly upside. He might just be an alts only guy from here on as this OKC team can throw up some eggs. The 6.50 for 30 on Sportsbet is alright but it’s not the greatest matchup against DFS. Tre Mann’s game log over the last few weeks may look quite nice, but he’s been aided by Giddey and Shai missing games, as well as some big blowouts where he’s done damage. Had that two game stretch against the Raptors and  Pistons that didn’t have garbage time and everyone was healthy, where he had just 3 and 7 points averaging 15 minutes. The 8.5 looks inflated but I can’t trust this doesn’t end in a blowout despite Luka not playing.

Blazers vs Wolves 1:10pm AEST

He’s been on the outs with Billups most of the season and the move to the bench in favour of Nance just confirms that. This number is below his season average of 12.5 PRA, despite being with the starters all season. Minutes projection takes a big hit here and although sometimes we see a trade off where players have a higher usage role in less time off the bench, that isn’t likely going to be the case here as Cov really relies on others creating for him, with 92% of his field goals being assisted.

• Robert Covington UNDER 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.94 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 4.1 units out

• Saddiq Bey over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Saddiq Bey Double Double @ 17.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Kevin Durant over 43.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Jalen Brunson over 6.5 Assists @ 1.80 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Robert Covington UNDER 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.94 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

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