NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 11/12

Results:

• -9.20 Units Loss
• -10% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Hornets vs Kings 11:10am AEST

Definitely a dangerous game to be taking an under, but I think the bookies are pricing Davis off his 29:30 minutes last game where he still only managed 24 PRA in a game where the Kings put up 142. The key for me is Harkless not playing last game, and after the game Gentry mentioned he wanted to give him one more game off despite him being listed as available which means he’s likely coming back into the rotation here. Hield only played 17 minutes as well, and if he gets hot (it’s a great matchup for him with how many 3s the Hornets give up) then there’s another way he could lose minutes. Len/Thompson should handle all the centre minutes (maybe Metu or Bagley get a couple in small ball groups) then Barnes (only played 29 last game, should get into the mid 30s here), and Bagley take the 4 minutes, Fox/Hali will play mid 30s and it doesn’t leave many minutes left for Hield/Harkless/Davis/Davion. Slight chance Harkless moves into the starting group too so just want to get this one out before lineups. Between the time I started writing this 10 minutes ago and finished writing now, the u19.5 PRA line has moved from 1.90 to 1.74 so slightly pivoting to his PR. If he starts the game and comes out hot he could very well play into the 30s and smash this line, but there are a ton of outs on the under.

• Terence Davis UNDER 17.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit

This sets up so well for Miles. He was defended quite well in both Philly games and he doesn’t really force bad shots too often so he didn’t have a usage spike in either of them, but man the role is insanely good. He drove the ball 24!!!! times last game, resulting in just 8 field goal attempts and no FTs is a credit to the Philly defence. On the season, he averages 10 drives per game resulting in 5 FGA and 2 FTA but today he gets an awesome matchup against the Kings who give up the most PITP in the league so if he continues to be drive happy he should get a ton of easy ones around the rim, especially without Holmes there. They have 2 days off after this game so he could crack 40 minutes again. Likely no PJ here means Miles will probably see some minutes at the 5, where he’s had a 2.3% usage bump on the season in a 200+ minute sample. Just a fun one, but he’s played 18 minutes at the 5 over the last few games without Terry and LaMelo where he put up 20 points (40 per 36) on a 40% usage). Huge upside today if his jumper is falling.

• Miles Bridges over 21.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Miles Bridges over 29.5 Points @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Cavs vs Wolves 12:10pm AEST

It was a joy to watch the Cavs against the Bulls the other day, playing some oldschool ball just getting it into the post and letting Mobley go to work on either DJJ or Ayo, who were both far too small to guard him. Brilliant coaching by Bickerstaff and it’s clear this season he’s picking certain spots to use guys. Today however doesn’t set up well for him with Vanderbilt on him who’s just been awesome defensively this season and the main part in the Wolves giving up the 6th fewest points to opposing PFs. Since coming back from injury he’s only cleared this line 2/7 times (including vs Bulls last game). He is so good but I think the Cavs will look for offence elsewhere today as they have other matchups (potentially huge Allen spot) they can exploit in what’s shaping up to be a sub par game environment. I would imagine the Cavs follow the trend of putting smaller guys on KAT, so he’s likely going to be busy defensively again with the potential of foul trouble.

• Evan Mobley UNDER 14.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Jarrett Allen over 24.5 Points @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Thunder vs Lakers 12:10pm AEST

Man the role for Shai is just so good right now as he’s just completely taken over. He’s at a stupid 31 drivers per game and gets the awesome matchup against the Lakers. He had success against them earlier in the season with 28 and 27 points and at that point the role was nowhere near as good as it is now. He’s started getting the whistle called with 12 and 15 FTA over the last two. It is remarkable he’s been able to turn in games of 26 and 30 over the last two despite being just 7-19 on his jump shots, and 8-18 on layups. He is far better than that and could really go off if AD doesn’t play here.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 22.5 Points @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 34.5 Points @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Haven’t been able to pull the trigger on anything else, but some other leans I had.

Pacers vs Mavs should be very slow with both teams bottom 10 for pace and happily playing half court. Carlisle kept making it a point that Levert is feeling better so we may see some extended minutes from him, and with his high usage it really caps Brogdon. He also gets a tough matchup against DFS and with Sabonis in a nice spot I’m fine with Brogdon u19.5 Pts.

Siakam is set for big minutes again but the Raptors probably aren’t going to be able to get away with going small against the Knicks size as easily, although neither Robinson or Noel really punish small teams so there’s a chance they do. He grabbed 11 boards last game and is 2.00 again for o7.5. Should play big minutes with 2 days off after this one. Also Gary Trent has been very matchup dependant of late and he is in a nice spot against the Knicks who give up the 7th most 3s per game. Also worth noting the Knicks have been getting smoked in transition and Gary is very aggressive with the ball in transition.

Cade has been balling lately with some big lines against some very good defenders in Dort and KCP. Likely gets Herb Jones here and could go off again.

**I have a big Christmas party this evening so it’s likely I’ll be nursing a hangover in the morning. If I don’t get any tips out tonight then might be a day off. Majority of games don’t start til midday so may still be able to get some done in the morning.

Staking Plan – 4.4 units out

• Terence Davis UNDER 17.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit
• Miles Bridges over 21.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Miles Bridges over 29.5 Points @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Evan Mobley UNDER 14.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Jarrett Allen over 24.5 Points @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 22.5 Points @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 34.5 Points @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

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