NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 11/11

Results:

• -7.10 Units Loss
• -17% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Rockets vs Pistons 11:40am AEST

We were a bit stiff on him last time as the bet was right as his minutes got cut right down, but he heavily outproduced his usual rates, can’t do much there. Happy to come back again though as this number gives us enough wiggle room. He’s only averaging 8.2 PR on the season, but that’s come in 21 minutes and I am really struggling to get him above 17 at best here with Killian back in. Killian probably had his best game of the season against the Sixers before he hurt his wrist, and there was some positive talk about Casey wanting to up his minutes a bit if he’s playing well. I’ve penciled him in for 28, which already cuts down CoJo to a maximum 20 (they have only had 3 minutes overlap all season), but they also want to give Cade some PG reps with no CoJo or Hayes so he could lose some more there too. He can rack up assists pretty quickly, so going with just the PR today.

• Corey Joseph UNDER 9.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit

Celtics vs Raptors 11:40am AEST

Admittedly not the best matchup here, but the role is too good to pass up sans Jaylen. We’ve only got the 1 game sample, but he had a 26% usage (up from 22%), 26!!! drives (up from 15, Brogdon leads league with 23), 7.2 minutes of touch time (up from 6.2), 92 touches (up from 70), 41 front court touches (up from 28), and had 15 potentials (up from 11.4). Udoka clearly trusts him to run this offence, and he’s playing an extremely tight rotation right with Smart, Tatum and Dennis all playing 36+ last game (Dennis team high 38). The Celtics have such a limited roster, so they’ll likely have to rely on Dennis’ creation again while the Raptors probably try take Tatum out of this one. Plenty of time off and no game tomorrow so we are likely going to see those 3 guys creep toward 40 minutes again here.

• Dennis Schroeder over 20.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Hornets vs Grizzlies 12:10pm AEST

Easily has the highest total on the slate and for good reason, with these teams giving up the most and second most points per game in the league. Finally ready to bet on LaMelo again as his minutes are finally getting up there with 33+ in 4 of the last 6 (foul trouble in one, blowout in other). It was just too hard earlier on in the season to bet on him with the potential of … Ish Smith … cutting into his playing time but now that’s out of the way I feel much better about it. This line is about on his average for the season, but it’s going to be such a good game environment against the Grizz who give up the most assists in the league, he’s likely in for another big night. Also worth noting that LaMelo mentioned in a presser the other day he wasn’t happy about how late he came into the game in the 4th quarter, so if this is close (think it will be) I expect we see him somewhere around the 36 regulation minutes he played against the Lakers.

• LaMelo Ball over 26.5 Points + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit

Pacers vs Nuggets 1:10pm AEST

Turner is going to have a huge size advantage over whoever they throw at him today, and we’ve already seen them feed him a few times when he’s gotten going this season so it could be a big spike game for him.

• Myles Turner over 19.5 Points @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Knicks vs Bucks 11:40am AEST

Really tempted to take the 14.5 PRA as it’s come down due to losing minutes in the last few games, but as we know he lost minutes to Noel who is out today and the Knicks are going to need size out there against Giannis. He doesn’t have any restrictions today, so I have his floor at 28 minutes with some upside if they decide to use him on Giannis, like they did with Noel when they met last week. I can’t bring myself to bet a unit on it as the foul risk is just too high against this team, but it’s worth a nibble on the double double at big odds here.

• Mitchell Robinson double double @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 3.3 unit out

• Corey Joseph UNDER 9.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Dennis Schroeder over 20.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• LaMelo Ball over 26.5 Points + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Myles Turner over 19.5 Points @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Mitchell Robinson double double @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

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