NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 10/12

Results:

• -9.20 Units Loss
• -10% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Started writing up Gay u10.5 Pts when Whiteside was first ruled in, as it means Jazz will play 48 minutes of a traditional centre to matchup with Embiid/Drummond which limits Gay’s upside as he’ll essentially be a straight 4 backup where he has a 2% usage dip vs his minutes at centre. Still an ok bet at 9.5. Also think it’s a tough spot for Embiid who looked exhausted at times last night. He’s on the second leg of a b2b and third game in four nights up against Rudy. He crushed the Hornets because they had no answer for him and it was the path of least resistance. That won’t be the case here as they’ll likely try get some perimeter guys involved.

Lakers vs Grizzlies 12:10pm AEST

The Grizzlies are a completely different team with Ja out and Brooks in, and although they’ve had a ton of schedule luck their defence has been really locked in, with a 93.8 rating over the last 5 games (1st in league, 2nd 100.0). The rates when he plays with Lebron and AD take a significant hit and this line is just too high.

• Russell Westbrook UNDER 16.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Not ideal for the Westbrook bet with Brooks out who was likely going to be guarding him, but it opens up a ton of opportunity for Melton. Hasn’t really had the opportunities this season but it’s a really nice setup for him today against this bad Lakers defence. Since he’s spent the majority of the season with bench units, we have a really good sample of him without Ja and Brooks (160 minutes) and the numbers are absurd with a 22.5/7.6/4.0 per 36 line and it’s not even through hot shooting, as he’s at just 42% from the field in that sample. Can fill it up in all categories.

• De’Anthony Melton over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• De’Anthony Melton over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.20 with TAB – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 2.2 unit out

• Russell Westbrook UNDER 16.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• De’Anthony Melton over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• De’Anthony Melton over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.20 with TAB – 0.2 units

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