NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 10/11

MILWAUKEE, WI - JULY 14: Bobby Portis #9 of the Milwaukee Bucks yells during the game against the Phoenix Suns during Game Four of the 2021 NBA Finals on July 14, 2021 at the Fiserv Forum Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2021 NBAE (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images).

Results:

• -7.10 Units Loss
• -17% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Bucks vs 76ers 11:40am AEST

Nice slow ramp up for Bobby with 15,19,22,24 before getting right up to 30 minutes against the Wizards on Monday. Can probably work off 30 mins being his floor in this one, as they are going to need the front court size going against Drummond and are very limited behind him. Production has never been his issue, and this season seems no different putting up 0.83 PRA per minute, despite shooting just 37% from the field (20% from 3). The role is great, with a 25% usage rate since returning, 55 touches per 30, 32 front court touches per 30 (team second), 7.6 paint touches (would be top 10 in league), and 3 post ups. Coming off a 28 PRA game where he shot just 6-17.

• Bobby Portis over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with Topsport – 1 unit

Along with Bobby getting back to his 30+ minutes, Jrue got up to 29 last game so they now have Giannis, Jrue, Bobby, Grayson, Pat and Hill who will all be playing 28+ or so, with Giannis Jrue and Bobby all potentially pushing up to 25. It doesn’t leave much at all on the wings, and they are really trying to bring Semi along so it looks like Nwora is going to be on the outs as he played a season low 13 minutes against the Wizards. He’s only averaging 12.9 PR on the season, despite playing 22 minutes and all the injuries they have had. Was pretty keen to take the under 11.5 Points + Rebounds (B365) here but he’s likely going to benefit if there’s a blowout (with Seth out there’s a very good chance) where Bobby will get stung, so it’s tough to play both.

Hawks vs Jazz 1:10pm AEST

Just a very tough spot for Trae and the Hawks here. This number of 37.5 is above his season average of 36.7, but they are at the end of a brutal stretch of 5 games in 7 nights including the second night of a b2b. Jazz had the best home defence in the league last season (8th this season, but 3-0 and only played 3 games). They’ve been a nightmare for PGs giving up the second fewest points, fourth fewest rebounds and fewest assists on the season. I was hoping we’d get a touch better number here without Bogey and Hunter as an over-reaction but it only jumped up the 1. They are getting replaced with similar usage players so shouldn’t impact much, other than increasing the likelihood of a blowout.

• Trae Young UNDER 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 2 unit out

• Bobby Portis over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Trae Young UNDER 37.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

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