NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 2/5

Brook Lopez (Google Images)

Results:

• 66.18 Units Profit
• 14% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Bucks are going to have a very tough time scoring in this series. The Bucks new starting group has a decent 30 minute sample here and the rates for Lopez have plummeted at just 5.8/5.8/1.2 per 36 with an abysmal 9.7% usage rate and 8.1% rebound rate. The Celtics are likely going to be aggressively doubling Giannis like they did with KD so although it’ll open up shots for the others, it just makes way more sense to replace Lopez with a shooter like Pat or Allen to capitalise on the doubles. His rim protection won’t be as important here as the Celtics aren’t a team that gets to the rim often with just 30% of their shots in the regular season coming there, which was 22nd in the league. It’s a bad matchup for him while he’s on the court and his minutes could be in jeopardy if they’re struggling to score early. Think the only way this gets beat is him getting hot from 3.

• Brook Lopez UNDER 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Also worth noting that although the Bucks had a 94 defensive rating in R1 it was extremely masked by the Bulls awful shooting. Yes it was a good game plan to leave their non shooters open but the Bulls got a stupid 25!!!! (increase to 30! over the last 3 games that KM missed) WIDE OPEN 3 pointers up per game but hit them at just 30%. Celtics don’t have knockdown shooters themselves but Williams, Brown, Smart, Horford are all guys who can make them pay. Think Celtics take this one pretty comfortably in 5 but if those aforementioned guys aren’t knocking down their shots (Celtics shot 41% on wide open 3s in R1) then maybe the series goes longer. May have a bet on Smart or Williams.

A lot more confident JJJ can stay out of foul trouble in this matchup. Throughout the season the Wolves drew the second most fouls from their opponents in the league due whereas the Warriors were right down the bottom drawing the second fewest. Showed last game how productive he can be and this is another good matchup for him. Had a per 36 line of 20.8/10.4/1.3 despite shooting just 39% from the field and 29% from 3 in the 3 games during the season.

• Jaren Jackson Jr over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet- 1 unit

Staking Plan – 3 units out

• Brook Lopez UNDER 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Marcus Smart over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Jaren Jackson Jr over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet- 1 unit
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