How far can the three Australians left at Wimbledon go?

There are three Australians left at Wimbledon this year. Two Australian players are left in the men’s draw and there is one left in the women’s draw.

In the women’s draw, the new Australian and 16th seed Daria Kasatkina will play the 19th seed Liudmilla Samsonova of Russia in the third round on Saturday. So far Kasatkina has beaten Emiliana Arango of Colombia 7-5, 6-3 in the first round, and Irina-Camelia Begu of Romania, 6-2, 4-6, 6-1 in the second round. Kasatkina actually lost to Samsonova in the third round of Indian Wells earlier this year, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2. Do not be surprised if Kasatkina is stronger mentally at London than she was in southern California. That is because Kasatkina has her citizenship situation straightened out and should be in a better headspace.

Kasatkina (+202) is an underdog against Samsonova (-250) despite being the higher seed. There is a good chance Kasatkina could reach the quarterfinals.

In the men’s draw, Alex de Minaur, the 11th seed from Sydney, has beaten Roberto Carballes Baena of Spain 6-2, 6-2, 7-6 in the first round, and Arthur Cazaux of France, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, 6-0 in the second round. In two matches, de Minaur has broken his opponents a dozen times. Expect de Minaur to have no problem with Danish qualifier August Holmgren (de Minaur’s surprising third round opponent). However, de Minaur could face Novak Djokovic of Serbia in the fourth round. Djokovic has won two of three meetings against de Minaur all-time.

Finally, Jordan Thompson of Sydney is the only Australian to clinch a spot in the fourth round of Wimbledon to date. He has beaten Vit Kopriva of the Czech Republic, 3-6, 4-6, 6-3, 7-6, 6-1 in round one, Benjamin Bonzu of France, 7-5, 6-7, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 in round two, and Luciano Darderi of Italy, 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3 in round three.

Next up for Thompson in round four is American Taylor Fritz, the 2024 United States Open semifinalist, and fifth seed. Fritz (-549) is the heavy favourite. However, Thompson did beat Fritz 6-4, 6-3 in the quarterfinals of Queen’s in 2024. Fritz’s lone win against Thompson came in the quarterfinals of Washington in 2023, 6-3, 6-3.

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