7. How’s The Serenity – 2. Kaptain Kaos – 6. Flicka’s Chance – 1. Kallaroo
May 9, 2024, Thursday
Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 10th April
April 9, 2021
By Rylie Morgan
Really likeable card at Ascot for Derby Day. Hot forecast when paired with a strong easterly is going to make things tough for horses that are going to get out the back. Keen to get involved.
Race 1 – 11:58PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM AUTUMN SERIES HEAT 2 (1100 METRES)
4. City Circle – 7. Michelle Ma Belle – 3. Fiery Water – 1. Prized Nemesis
City Circle
This Parnham galloper is just going to get a beautiful run in transit here after finally drawing a gate for the first time this prep. Comes out of a very fast 1000m contest when just not able to gun down a very in-form Requisition early in the day when it was difficult to make ground. The River Beau form from 3 back now looks even better after she did Clairvoyance last weekend and given where Chris should be able to lob her here, up to the 1100m (which to me, looks her perfect distance) she is going to take the power of beating off her favoured 7 day back-up. One of the better bets of the day.
4 Units WIN
Race 2 – 12:34PM PEPSI MAX HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
6. Standout Rose – 3. Lord Lonsdale – 1. Notorious One – 5. Rogues Point
Standout Rose
Unlucky not to have finished closer to Billy Ain’t Silly last start over the 1400m in a very fast run race when closing off hard up the rail after being briefly chopped out at the 250m. I suspect that is going to be a very strong form race, and although it is her 1st crack at the mile, with the lack of speed engaged outside Lord Lonsdale, hope Whiting shows some aggression here from the gate and potentially could land one off in the breeze, I think it’ll be a test if they drop her out to gun them down but if they show some initiative and take her forward early given she isn’t exactly slow away, she should be right in this on the minimum. The worry is whether being her first crack at the mile, they take a more conservative approach and just let her settle at the back and wind up into it. Regardless, banking on Fish (will regret this) pressing on early and if she can land in the breeze, is the horse I want to be on. $2.40 is too short provided the risk in settling position, but am happy to get involved at any price $2.80+ on the day.
Lord Lonsdale the danger if able to lead and roll at his own clip, something that will only be amplified if Standout Rose is left at the tail.
2.5 Units WIN if you can see $2.80+ on race day.
Race 3 – 1:19PM COOL RIDGE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
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Race 4 – 1:59PM CROWN PERTH PLATE (1100 METRES)
3. Featherweight – 8. Plemont – 1. Ain’t No Other Man – 7. Awesome Rival
Race 5 – 2:38PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
4. That’s Funny Az – 9. Uncle Lino – 1. Cockney Crew – 3. Mackenzie Brooke
Race 6 – 3:15PM SOLO ZERO HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
9. Angelic Miss – 5. Sweet Angeline – 7. Glasgow Girl – 3. Some Sort
With Some Sort and Glasgow Girl setting a breakneck tempo out in-front, I think this race sets up nicely for a horse with cover who can be finishing over the top of them later in the day, and for me the two big chances of doing so are Angelic Miss and Sweet Angeline.
Angelic Miss
Really like this horse from an in-form stable. Comes here fresh off a solid enough trial hit-out, last prep at her fresh run was beaten 1.9L by Solaia (we know what that filly has done since) when dragged back, held up any the top of the straight and given no hope from the gate. If Chris can land her in that 3 wide moving line approaching the turn and they can make ground by this stage of the day, I feel she can definitely make her presence felt.
0.8 Units WIN
Sweet Angeline
Comes out of a 70+ down in Albany in a very strong performance where a lot of the form that ties in behind her looks really strong. She maps to get a very similar trail here behind the leaders from 2 and am confident she can run a very bold race again on the JT Warwick special 6 day back-up and be stronger than the 2 leaders late who I have my doubts about despite Some Sort getting the blinkers going on.
0.7 Units WIN
Race 7 – 3:50PM MARJORIE CHARLESON CLASSIC (1200 METRES)
9. Clairvoyance – 1. Watch Me Dance – 3. Platinum Bullet – 2. Cryptic Love
Race 8 – 4:30PM SCHWEPPES-W.A.T.C. DERBY (2400 METRES)
1. Western Empire – 2. Outback Jack – 8. Temptacion – 6. Lunar Impact
Race 9 – 5:10PM FURPHY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
8. Creator – 2. Helms Gate – 7. Bruce Almighty – 5. Point Taken
Creator
Terrific first 2 runs in WA and has found a very winnable assignment here 3rd up. Was very impressed by him last start out of that same strong Amasenus form reference, where he really made Amasenus work to pick him up once he got galloping room and out into open air in a very high-rating event. The map here is the awkward component, and whether he can find enough room from most likely 3 back the fence, but given Al Magico I’m anticipating is going to be the (if not one of) the first horses beaten, there should be room for him to poke through and get busy late. Hard to beat and like this horse, think he has more wins in him.
1.5 Units WIN
Helm’s Gate
This old boy is deadset flying. 3 on the trot down in Esperance including the Esperance Sprint, running serious sectionals in doing so, before last start heading up to Kal carrying the 61.5kgs, when slow away, dug up and did all the work to toe up the two horses into the race that only managed to run him down in the shadows, a super run. Jo-Anne brings him to town here, drops down in the weights to 57kgs after the claim for Derrick, and maps to get a lovely trail in transit just stalking the leaders, big chance I feel and you get double figures to find out.
0.5 Units WIN
Wanted to find Point Taken 2nd up, after a big 1st up run in a very high-rating race when closing off in almost identical final 400/200m closing splits to the winner there Amasenus. The bar plates going on here just makes her hard to have, as does the start she will be spotting them in a race that doesn’t have as much tempo engaged, not to mention the big easterly in play.
Staking Plan
Race 1 City Circle 4 Units WIN
Race 2 Standout Rose 2.5 Units WIN if $2.80+ late
Race 6 Angelic Miss 0.8 Units WIN/Sweet Angeline 0.7 Units WIN
Race 9 Creator 1.5 Units WIN/Helms Gate 0.5 Units WIN
7.5 Units Staked, 10 Units staked if we can see our desired price in Race 2.
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