G1 Spring Champion Preview & Analysis
October 10, 2019
Shadow Hero looks to have a strangle-hold on the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes for the 3YO’s after a dominant display last start, can he reproduce last start performance stepping up to the 2000m.
Distance
- 2000
Track Conditions
- Good 4 (Predicted Soft)
- Rail:6m 1600m – WP, 4m Remainder
Track Bias
Expecting a relatively even track with all runners getting their chance dependant on individual race pace, advantage to be off the fence in the straight and monitor conditions as they might start coming wider and wider looking for better going if there is heavy rain.
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Early Speed
- Average
Just Thinkin (10) will work across and take up the running with Rhaegar (9) pushing on to sit outside the speed with Sciconic (5) and Battenburg (1) sitting just behind the pace.
Top Pick
Very hard to go against the Mark Newnham trained 2. Shadow Hero after a dominant win over 1800m in the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes where the gelding sat back and showed a brilliant turn of foot in the straight to run away from them and was strong over the line, the step up to 2000m won’t be an issue and from barrier 2 Josh Parr will get a beautiful run just worse than midfield one off the fence .
Danger
Expecting an improved run from the Baker & Forsman stable with their colt 4. Quick Thinker, finished 4.3 lengths off Shadow Hero last start sitting handy to the pace and grinding to the line, was 28 days between last start and will take a heap of improvement from that effort and will appreciate the predicted soft track conditions.
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Lay
Against the Waterhouse & Bott trained gelding 3. Just Thinkin at around the $8 mark in current markets, led last start and was overrun by Shadow Hero to finish 4.5 lengths back and was only battling to the line, big risk at the 2000m and happy to take him on.
Betting Strategy
- Back – Shadow Hero ( 4 Unit Win Bet)
- Back – Quick Thinker (1.5 Unit Win Bet)
- Lay – Just Thinkin
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