G1 Mackinnon Stakes Preview: Why Each Horse Can & Can’t Win
November 8, 2019
The Mackinnon Stakes has produced another great field and with so many chances we thought we’d tell you why each horse can and can’t win as well as give you our top 4 selections. Find out who is our $26 pick is below.
1. Hartnell
- Jockey: H Bowman
- Trainer: J Cummings
- Barrier: 14
- Odds: $11
Why He Can Win
His distance record is fantastic (15:4-3-3) and his best run this prep was over 2,000m in the Turnbull Stakes.
Why He Can’t Win
He hasn’t won for 57 weeks which has to be a concern.
2. Gailo Chop
- Jockey: J Allen
- Trainer: M Williams
- Barrier: 15
- Odds: $34
Why He Can Win
Seven of his thirteen wins have come over this trip and fought on well when beaten 2.1L in the Caulfield Stakes over 2,000m two starts back.
Why He Can’t Win
84 weeks since his last win and will have to do some work from a terrible draw.
3. Humidor
- Jockey: D Lane
- Trainer: C Maher & D Eustace
- Barrier: 12
- Odds: $10
Why He Can Win
Seems to love Flemington (8:3-0-1) and has only missed a place twice over this distance (10:3-2-3)
Why He Can’t Win
61 weeks since his last win and has returned from an injury this prep.
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4. Debt Agent
- Jockey: M Rodd
- Trainer: J Conlan
- Barrier: 6
- Odds: $23
Why He Can Win
Has won 5 races at G1 level in Sinagpore and his runs in Australia since arriving have had some merit.
Why He Can’t Win
He has never won over the trip and seems to need his races spaced.
5. Suzuka Devious
- Jockey: M Dee
- Trainer: M Hashida
- Barrier: 18
- Odds: $46
Why He Can Win
Hard to make a strong case for him but he will be rock hard fit.
Why He Can’t Win
Has had 5 runs at G1 level and didn’t catch the eye at only Australian run.
6. Kluger
- Jockey: K McEvoy
- Trainer: T Takano
- Barrier: 8
- Odds: $26
Why He Can Win
Ran 1.5L behind WINX in the Queen Elizabeth in the Autumn which was his second run in Australia that prep.
Note this is his second run in Australia this prep.
Why He Can’t Win
Seemed to get very hot before the race when beaten 12.45L in the Cox Plate.
7. Harlem
- Jockey: J Kah
- Trainer: D & B Hayes & T Dabernig
- Barrier: 3
- Odds: $35
Why He Can Win
Caught the eye when third in the Caulfield stakes over 2,000m two starts back.
His track/distance record here is fantastic (3:2-0-0)
Why He Can’t Win
34 weeks since his last win.
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8. Kings Will Dream
- Jockey: J McDonald
- Trainer: C Waller
- Barrier: 13
- Odds: $11
Why He Can Win
Won the Turnbull Stakes over this distance two starts back and has a great record over this distance (6:3-1-1)
Why He Can’t Win
Struggled in the Cox Plate and has to overcome a bad drw here.
9. Life Less Ordinary
- Jockey: N Rawiller
- Trainer: C Waller
- Barrier: 4
- Odds: $35
Why He Can Win
Fantastic distance record (13:1-4-6) and ran the best last 800m two starts back.
Why He Can’t Win
26 weeks since his last win and has only placed once from 7 attempts at G1 level.
10. So Si Bon
- Jockey: L Nolen
- Trainer: D & B Hayes & T Dabernig
- Barrier: 7
- Odds: $31
Why He Can Win
Looked a winning chance when beaten 1.55L in G1 company last start.
Why He Can’t Win
Has never won over this trip (4:0-0-2) and has only managed 3 placings from 17 attempts at G1 level.
11. Fifty Stars
- Jockey: J McNeil
- Trainer: D & B Hayes & T Dabernig
- Barrier: 11
- Odds: $15
Why He Can Win
Beaten 0.1L in G1 company last start and runs well at the track (4:2-1-0)
Why He Can’t Win
Hasn’t run over the distance before and has a bad gate to contend with.
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12. Night’s Watch
- Jockey: D Oliver
- Trainer: C Waller
- Barrier: 1
- Odds: $20
Why He Can Win
Second in G1 company two starts back and has won twice from 7 attempts at this distance.
Why He Can’t Win
Raced Keenly at 1600m last start and hasn’t won for 58 weeks.
13. Cape Of Good Hope
- Jockey: M Zahra
- Trainer: D & B Hayes & T Dabernig
- Barrier: 2
- Odds: $20
Why He Can Win
Won the Caulfield Stakes (2,000m) at his first Australian run and has won on 2 occassions from 5 attempts at this trip.
Why He Can’t Win
Hard to fault but failed in the Cox Plate and up in weight
14. Magic Wand
- Jockey: R Moore
- Trainer: A O’brien
- Barrier: 9
- Odds: $8.50
Why She Can Win
Had no luck in the Melbourne Cup when beaten 3.6L after running on from a long way back.
Has only missed a place once from seven attempts at this distance (7:0-5-1)
Why She Can’t Win
Sharp drop in distance (3200m-2,000m).
On the quick backup
15. Melody Belle
- Jockey: O Bosson
- Trainer: J Richards
- Barrier: 16
- Odds: $3.10
Why She Can Win
10 wins at G1 level and was impressive when winning the G1 Empire Rose Stakes.
2 wins from 2 attempts at this distance.
Why She Can’t Win
Drawn out in the carpark.
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16. Aristia
- Jockey: C Williams
- Trainer: M Ellerton & S Zahra
- Barrier: 5
- Odds: $23
Why She Can Win
Was only beaten 1.5L behind Melody Belle last start and has only missed a place once at this distance (4:1-1-1).
Why She Can’t Win
Form before last start was only fair.
17. Danzdanzdance
- Jockey:
- Trainer: C Waller
- Barrier: 10
- Odds: $31
Why She Can Win
Ran less than 3L behind the winner in the Ranvet last preparation and has won twice at G1 level.
Why She Can’t Win
Has never won on good ground so she needs rain.
18. Admiral’s Joker
- Jockey: C Williams
- Trainer: K Vella
- Barrier: 17
- Odds: $26
Why He Can Win
Hard to knock winning form with three wins from three attempts this preparation including the Seymour Cup.
Why He Can’t Win
Form just doesn’t seem good enough.
Our Top 4
- Kluger
- Melody Belle
- Hartnell
- Magic Wand
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