FREE: Belmont Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 21st May

Incredibly competitive betting card greets us today at Belmont with a couple of wide open quaddie legs. Glorious day for racing, track a good 4 with the rail at the 6m after being at the 12m midweek, the inside lanes should be a relatively fresh pad.

Race 1 – 12:03PM DRUMMOND GOLF PLATE (1000 METRES)

1. Revitup – 2. Capo Veloce – 3. Born And Bread – 4. Tropical Sun

Revitup is too quick for these, there won’t be a breeze horse. Simply a 1000m specialist, should lead and should win. 1st go at Belmont, has jumped out as fast as ever here, the 58.5 may leave her running a little on empty late, confident by then she’s opened up enough of a break

Capo Veloce & Tropical Sun both nice horses, thought the debut win of CV down the straight was very impressive. Tropical Sun not suited by the 1000m I don’t think.

Race 2 – 12:37PM VALE ALLAN LILLEY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

3. Hardly Ever – 5. Tadweer – 4. Sniparoochy – 7. Men’s Club

Hardly Ever

Really progressive filly for the most in-form yard/hoop combination in the land. I don’t think she was suited to racing in the breeze last start when still too good for her opposition, she just had too much firepower and here I think she maps an absolute treat to land one out one back with cover, peeling and zapping them. Getting back to Belmont for her is only another box ticked. I’m $1.90, happy to get involved here at black money.

4 Units WIN

Sniparoochy was too bad to be true last start, I’m forgiving of that effort but I just can’t map her here, up against it.

Race 3 – 1:14PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

8. Safety Bay – 3. Gates Of Babylon – 4. Sweet Strawberry – 2. Image Keeper

A Westspeed with good speed. Gates Of Babylon/Wild Front/Safety Bay all roll forward, Image Keeper holds up leaders back. This is just a yucky race really, very even field with most runners all running within 2-3L of each other on figures from their last start.

Gates of Babylon has been out of form for a long time now but thought his recent trial with the un-raced apprentice in the saddle was super, has he rediscovered his zest for racing? Hard to trust but Shaun McGruddy hopping aboard for the first time a good little push in itself. Will roll forward and like 1200m as a kickoff point for him.

Sweet Strawberry is racing super for Brock Lewthwaite, effortless win 2 back at Kal before hitting the line very well last start at Northam in a strong Sky Racing heat, she’s dangerous with some cover from a 3 wide moving line

Safety Bay will only improve from what she did 1st up, thought she went super when not finding her favoured role of rolling along out in front after being a touch slow away. Would have been more keen on her chances without the speed drawn underneath, if she can get across and find a spot for Dyson without burning too much petrol (or being trapped wide for too long) then she is more than capable of winning this.

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Race 4 – 1:54PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

10. Alsephina – 5. Via Monte – 1. False Statement – 7. Stylax

Thought 2 runners in this market would clear out, which has occurred, and although I think this field is a little deeper than that, it’s going to be a fascinating contest.

Alsephina is the progressive 3yo filly up against the older horses, couldn’t have been more impressive with what she has done to date while Via Monte is a very good Street Boss 3yo for Dan Morton, arguably shouldn’t have gone around fresh when vetted at the gates after dislodging his rider and thought he ran quite well considering given the tempo of that sit/sprint affair did not suit him one bit

I couldn’t split them in my market, will be interesting to see the tactics here on raceday if they do land side by side, there’s no cutaway here for Alsephina and Warm N Fuzzy generally doesn’t roll off the fence too far to open up a rails run at the top of the straight. This provides an opportunity for Chris Parnham if he lands outside her to keep her in a pocket for as long as he can. Interestingly, he hops off the filly for the Morton runner here as well having the pick of both rides. Slight lean to the filly for me, I think she is very good and gets in on the minimum, but I’ll be happy to back the drifter if money comes hard for one of the two and they start very short

Race 5 – 2:32PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

1. My Mate – 10. Pray Again – 5. Advanced – 4. Above The Peg

I’ve actually marked My Mate favourite in my market for this event. A winner in this grade/trip last start, after claim for Corver he gets in with 1kg less, maps for the softest of leads and has shown when finding the front he can give a really good kick. Leads, rolls on the bend, can they run him down? It really doesn’t look a difficult ride for Vic.

The way things have been going you’d be pretty brave to be hard against a progressive, Michael Grantham trained Peters Investments 3yo, and I’m not hard against, but I just think $2.10 Advanced is poison odds. Won really well on a very wet track at Northam last week, could mount a case he beat absolutely nothing there and the track was wet enough to question whether he just handled the ground better than his opposition, but you do have to take care of what is in front of you. Put simply I have got question marks around him and at the price, you don’t get much meat on the bone to find out.

Above The Peg is a horse I really like on a Belmont Guineas path, I just don’t think this race shape suits him at all likely settling back last in a race with no tempo, something I think he needs.

If you can forgive the disappointing 1st up effort, Pray Again dished up one of the more impressive trials I’ve seen in my time and is a different horse at Belmont Park. Interesting to note Brad Parnham’s comments post that fresh effort that he “Will be better suited to racing at Belmont”
Back to Belmont, think he maps beautifully here, he’s a good beginner and could potentially land on the back of Savage One who’s your likely breeze horse, if you’re as forgiving as I am, you will want to have something on at the double figures. I just wish we had Brad Parnham in the saddle, I’m not sure he is an apprentice horse, no offence Kesh.

Race 6 – 3:05PM TABTOUCH – BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

3. Kaymay – 9. Galactic Storm – 1. Beat The Bro – 5. Reliable Star

Kaymay

Think Kaymay might have finally found her race here. Her efforts at her past 2 have been huge, firstly sat in the breeze outside a very hot tempo and battled away to the line superbly, before last start had to tow the field up to a tearaway leader and was pretty remarkable I thought how strong she fought on to still be in that photo finish with Piccola Signora. May lead this race by default with the lack of speed (genuinely nothing even remotely close to a leader engaged here), think this might just suit perfectly, Kyra can run them along at her own leisure, we know she’s got a very nice turn of foot, she can get rolling before the turn and drop these off once they straighten and leave it all up to them to run her down.

2 Units WIN

Galactic Storm is a horse I’m not sold on him just yet. Drawn out and has a tendency to be really slow away, thought last week he loomed like he was going to win the race but just peaked on his run and now gets out further in trip to the mile off the 7 days. The addition of the head gear given the way he has finished off his last two is a big tick, and there is a bit of a spruik on him being a half to G1 winner Superstorm, but I’m risking. I don’t think he has put it all together yet and he’s rock bottom price to find out.

Race 7 – 3:40PM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK HANDICAP (2000 METRES)

6. Atlantis Beach – 7. Sluice Box – 11. Bold Success – 2. General Grant

Atlantis Beach

Adds some intrigue to this race on the 7 day back-up stepping out to the 2000m. I thought he really warmed to the task late last week, he’s shown me (albeit at a lesser distance) he is capable of sustaining a long, powerful run. He profiles like 2000m will be of no issue, suffice to say he may even be better suited over further? I love the platform, 2 strong runs at the mile up to the 2000m, if O’Donnell can find him cover in that 3 deep train, he’s the lightly raced, progressive type in the field with huge upside that I do really want to keep following. I think he can win here, gut feel says he will eat up the 2000m, just needs some luck and a good steer from the gate.

1 Unit WIN

Sluice Box

Ah, he’s sucked me in again the ultimate tease. Been horror watch after horror watch this prep, he’s incredibly due some luck. Another off the 7 days, was absolutely bolting last week when held up behind a wall until the 150m, never got a crack at them and thought his work through the line was as good as anything in the race. McGruddy is a really good booking, I think he’s going well enough to take this out with the right run in transit, some of the price has been taken over the last 24 hrs but I think we can have something small on at BSP, there will be money around for a number of runners in this race.

0.5 Units WIN @BSP

Aragain is going super, does she lack that killer blow? Maps beautifully once again from the gate

Bold Success was an uber impressive win last start on the Scarpside, is dangerous here with the suck run on-speed with no weight on his back.

General Grant stays all day and you know he will put himself into the race a long way out and be able to sustain a run, would have loved Brad Parnham to stick, awkward draw to contend with, will be interesting to see where he lands in the run, would not surprise if he out grinds these once again.

Race 8 – 4:15PM SKYRACING.TV PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES FINAL (1400 METRES)

5. Balladeer – 8. Power Of St George – 1. Double Spice – 11. Jakestar

A capacity field makes for good pressure and a messy old race, very competitive edition of the Sky Final.

Balladeer I thought of Dellar’s two he was probably top seed. He was really good behind the stablemate two back at Pinjarra and was a horror watch last start when Laqdar made ultimately wrong call to go back to the inside instead of tacking on 3 wide with cover. He would have gone very close to beating Jakestar there had the latter occurred, barrier 8 here likely gives him a really nice cuddled up midfield run, he’s ready for the 1400m now and McGruddy is a great pick-up rider.

Power Of St George, in hindsight, was one I was wrong to pile into 1st up at Pinjarra given the barrier he drew. He’s a big, striding horse who needs galloping room and needs to be out of traffic, although on paper it looks ugly, this is a much better draw for him to find a 3, maybe even 4 wide moving line with cover. 1400m looks his trip, Belmont I think is his track, would love to see them take him on from his current quote and we can have a something on him in a very open race, marked him a $6.00 favourite.

Double Spice was a forgive last start off the 6 weeks with an elevated heart rate, prior to that effort was probably top seed for this. Carries the top weight, drawn a bad alley, 1400m another question mark for me. Has a tendency to overdo it at times, key for him will be to settle.

Speed Dream was the most impressive heat winner, but Fish Whiting is going to have his work cut out for him from the gate, thought his current price was unders.

Dark Assault went in fresh no trial to the Pinjarra heat behind Star Present and Power Of St George and he just wasn’t suited to being held up and being made to sprint underneath runners, thought he hit the line really well considering. Winner of this race last year, just think he might encounter some trouble from barrier 1? I don’t read too much into these sort of stats but has horrible 2nd up form also, has never placed at 4 second-up starts.

The chances certainly do not end there, super quaddie leg for value, terribly competitive race.

Race 9 – 4:52PM BYRON BAY PREMIUM LAGER HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

6. It’sarayday – 10. Timely Outburst – 13. Rokanori – 4. Liwa

It’sarayday

A little surprised at the price, I thought for sure they would go up in the red. I tried to find any angles as to why perhaps he is vulnerable here, but he’s going to land box-seat, stalk the leading pair and if there’s any improvement from the 1st up run (which I suspect there might be) I just can’t see who catches him. He’s a high class, high cruising speed horse capable of holding a position with a turn of foot to boot, all the hallmarks of a black-type quality sprinter. Think he is capable of really going through the grades, I hope he really announces himself as an emerging star of the WA sprinting ranks in this deeper field than what he faced 1st up, and to be honest, I think you are getting a backable quote.

3.5 Units WIN

Timely Outburst I feel will run a huge race from the breeze or potentially even finding the fence, while the recent trial of Rokanori was outstanding, he looks a proper, proper racehorse. Terrific race to end the day.

Staking Plan

• Race 2 Hardly Ever 4 Units WIN
• Race 6 Kaymay 2 Units WIN
• Race 7 Atlantis Beach 1 Unit WIN/Sluice Box 0.5 Units WIN @BSP
• Race 9 It’sarayday 3.5 Units WIN

11 Units Staked. Good luck if following.

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