FREE: Belmont Selections: Saturday 23rd July

A Heavy 9 greets us at Belmont today (and every chance we get to a heavy 10 with the forecast rain throughout the day) as does a very difficult meeting to navigate as a result. The rail goes out to the 8m position and the vast majority of runners have never seen a track so rain-affected.

Race 1 – 12:14PM ASCEND SALES TROPHIES PLATE (1000 METRES)

1. Revitup – 8. Cosmopolitan Girl – 9. Jeanella – 6. The Collector

Cosmopolitan Girl

Looks over the odds for me at $19 here Cosmopolitan Girl, brings some pretty strong 2yo form here, having run close up behind Baby Paris (Karrakatta Plate runner up) last time we saw her and has form around Street Parade, Saintorio and Sheeza Belter. Was only beaten 1.7L by Revitup last time they met over the short course, gets 3.5kgs in her favour, drawn to sit on the back of that runner stalking throughout and had a really nice trial leading into her 3rd prep, no huge interest in the opener but purely think she is over the odds and can have something on small.

0.5 Units WIN

Revitup is always hard to beat bouncing to the top over the short course, only grabbed in the shadows last start by a very smart 2yo in Aztec Ruler and the start prior by Rumour Says, who are both undeafeated. Genuine wet track query, but will be in front for a very long way.

The Collector set tongues wagging at the trials with a demolition job of his opposition, Blinkers went on there which he didn’t have in 1st trial. Although very visually impressive, a bit of digging through the horses that came in behind him and their trial form, fair to say there was absolutely nothing chasing him and it was the slowest of the 2yo trials of the morning. Market has adjusted since he opened at $2.40 (well and truly unders) but still think he is under the odds.

Race 2 – 12:53PM TABTOUCH BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

3. Olga Louisa – 4. State Of Power – 9. Wednesday – 1. Mantelli

Olga Louisa

If the track gets right into that Heavy range by the time we get to this race on Saturday, I think Olga Louisa is going to be very hard to run down. She’s really low flying at the moment and absolutely laps up the slop. 2/2 on heavy tracks, last start drew 16/16, really had to put the handlebars down early to get to the top and thought she fought on terrific through to the line. Bounces to the front here in her most favoured conditions and makes them do all the chasing, beat home the favourite here State Of Power 2 starts ago and gets half a kilo in her favour. Each way odds? I’m really keen.

1.5 Units EACH WAY

Race 3 – 1:33PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

5. Halatorion – 4. Astro Warrior – 11. Dais – 3. Forest War

Halatorion ticks a lot of boxes for me here in this Westspeed Platinum event, just has to handle the obvious query of a very wet track. 2nd up here, gets Johnston Porter on for Beaux Banovic Edwards, steps 1000m up to 1200m which is much more suitable, ran a big L600m fresh and can sit much closer here from barrier 3. I think he looks very hard to beat, with the really wet track the only query given he’s had 4 starts on soft 5 being the worst of them and they were all at the beginning of his career and its safe to say he’s a very different horse now than what he was then.

Astro Warrior for me looks the hardest to beat. Can sit right over the speed from barrier 2, comes back from a deeper race where he was unlucky not to have finished closer and is a winner on a soft 7. Tough to knock and for me the testing material. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here!

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Race 4 – 2:09PM VALE BOB WESTON HANDICAP (2100 METRES)

4. Bold Success – 5. Crescent City – 1. Reliable Star – 10. Our Norman View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here!

Race 5 – 2:43PM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Catalpa – 5. Seduce Me – 10. Knot Secret – 4. Frigid

I thought Seduce Me was a terrific run last start behind Magnificent Andy. Just got a mile back from the widest gate there, didn’t really get clear until passing the 200m trying to pick runs between horses and thought she really savaged the line. Draws barrier 6 here and can sit much closer in running, beat home Sniparoochy the start prior who has subsequently won again, the $16 available this when markets opened (which has now evaporated) was more than enough for me to get involved, the current $8.00 on offer is far less enticing, but think she is a great winning chance.

Catalpa is another I think can be a big improver 2nd up here. Towed up the 3 wide line fresh on a fast tempo and thought he battled away to the line well and would have derived great benefit for having that run under the belt. Gets 3.5kgs on the favourite Frigid here from the 1st up run, maps for run of the race here from barrier 1, the double figures on offer up until last night was more than enough to get involved but there has been a big go for him overnight/this morning.

I would suggest holding fire until late, every chance these two aforementioned runners get the wobbles in betting late and you can get involved.

Frigid is a progressive filly, no doubt about that, I just think this looks an incredibly difficult set up for Chris Parnham and Frigid to navigate here. Given a 10/10 from Laqdar last start, draws 14/14 in a deeper race with no tactical speed and rises 5kgs at the weights. Mapped to sit near last in the run from the gate, I doubt she will get the tempo to suit and although she’s a very progressive filly, at that $3.00 mark or close to it she is well and truly unders for me here.

Knot Secret another slightly over my price. Positive jockey change with McGruddy back on, could arguably land one out, one back here and thought he was terrific behind Sniparoochy last start. Well supported in betting on Heavy track on debut, wouldn’t surprise to see him go close in this. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here!

Race 6 – 3:20PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

5. Flying Missile – 9. Brave Dream – 2. All Day Session – 3. Chili is Hot

Think Flying Missile finds the most suitable race for her all prep here.

In this field there is next to no early speed outside of herself. She hasn’t been able to find the top in any of her races this prep as a victim of circumstance, feel this is her favoured role and she should really be able to do so without any sort of pressure here. Backs up off the 7 days, has that grounding now after stepping straight from the 1000 to the 1400m last weekend, ran very well I thought behind Phanta and Ginger Flyer mind you. She’s only got to handle the really wet conditions here, which I think she will, to be very hard to beat. Will be interesting to see how the track is playing by this stage of the day, but she’s just currently under my bet price at the $2.80.

Brave Dream was a big run last start on a wet track and looks suited from a low draw here down to the 54kgs. Not sure that was the strongest 66+ we’ve ever seen, but she does look well placed able to sit much closer in running here. The drop back from the 1600-1400m a slight negative for mine, feel she is at her most effective at the mile.

Race 7 – 3:50PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

4. Multinational – 9. Conquered Zone – 14. My Fury – 8. Castillo De Lago View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here!

Race 8 – 4:20PM H.G. BOLTON SPRINT (1200 METRES)

4. Outrageous – 7. The Spruiker – 5. Hot Zed – 1. Nerodio

Looking forward to the feature in the Bolton. Huge respect to Nerodio who did take out the Beaufine but history quite simply tells you this horse, although yes he loves it wet and yes can carry weight, isn’t as effective over the 1200m as he is over the 1000m, which brings him back to the field here from the Beaufine somewhat in my eyes.

Hot Zed was only beaten a length and a half in the Beaufine, was just run off his legs a little early and was chopped out at the top of the straight, loved the way he finished off and he is going to lob in a wonderful position in running from barrier 4 here. Up to the 1200m is a huge tick for him.

The Spruiker is just a really good horse, put simply. Lugged 60.5kgs fresh in a 78+, was caught 3 wide without cover throughout and was still strong through the line late. Gets 6kgs of weight relief here, is 2/2 on heavy tracks, another who maps to lob in a lovely spot tucked away in behind the speed. I had a real struggle splitting the two above, but The Spruiker certainly has more runs on the board than Hot Zed does in genuinely wet conditions but Hot Zed has got the better of him the previous 2 occasions they have met.

Betting wise, I’m happy to wait and see what the market does late before I get involved, happy to back either of them if there is a drift.

There is one that I also think could turn up a big price late and run a big race and that is Outrageous, who is first up no trial for Luke Fernie. His debut run in WA in the Winterbottom Stakes had to be seen to be believed, was for me by far the run of the race from the beaten brigade there. He generally flies fresh and has run some good races against some top liners over East in very wet conditions. Clint Johnston Porter booked, not sure if he is being shaped up for a Hannan’s or if he would be weighted out of such a race with his rating, but this seems a target race to me and if he can get through the conditions, he can run a belter at a big price. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here!

Race 9 – 5:00PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

7. Nobel Laurence – 10. Sentimental Hero – 13. Miss Vasari – 11. Regal Magic

Really difficult way to finish a really difficult day.

Sentimental Hero and Nobel Laurence are a couple of resuming gallopers that bring great intrigue to the last.

Sentimental Hero put 2 in a line last preparation and is still only very lightly raced, joining the Michael Grantham stable with his Peter Investments alignment. Although I think $4.20 is currently under the odds, for me he looks the hardest to beat. Thought the recent trial was superb, beat a very strong 60+ field on a heavy track the last time we saw him at the races, so you know he will get through the conditions. Should lob in a lovely spot behind what looks a cracking tempo here from barrier 4, he looks very progressive and anything $5.50-$6.00+ and I will be getting involved.

Nobel Laurence had just the 1 start last prep before being tipped out, and was (arguably) one of the runs of the entire season. Stood in the gates at the start, was a conservative 9L last detached from the field and he’s taken 2 runners in the straight to finish only 3.5L adrift of This’ll Testya who was flying at the time and then went on to win black-type, it was a monstrous run. Has run 2nd on a Heavy deck behind Secret Plan, and is a winner on a soft 7 defeating Speed Dream, he’s a swimmer with my query being where Lucy gets him to from the gate? It looks quite a sticky steer from barrier 10. In saying that, there should be good tempo and if they are stopping on them up front and the middle of the track is the place to be by this stage of the day, I think $16 is a terrific price to find out.

1 Unit WIN

Staking Plan

• Race 1 Cosmopolitan Girl 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 2 Olga Louisa 1.5 Units EACH WAY
• Race 9 Nobel Laurence 1 Unit WIN

4.5 Units staked, more of a betting guide than a staking plan today, good luck if getting involved. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here!

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