FREE: Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 5th March

Bunbury Cup day (at Ascot with Bunbury under re-development) this Saturday and it’s a tricky little card to navigate with Clairvoyance to go around again very heavily in the red in the Bunbury Stakes another big talking point. 32 degrees, light breeze, should be a perfect day for racing.

Race 1 – 12:28PM CITY & REGIONAL FUELS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

3. Policiere – 4. River Rubicon – 2. Red Fifty Three – 5. Arcadia Grace

Race 2 – 1:08PM AUSMIC PEST CONTROL HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

6. Pink Carats – 1. Spin The Knife – 7. Sassy Trader – 2. Express Time

Race 3 – 1:48PM ONSITE BUNBURY WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

6. Sunsphere – 7. Gold Merits – 1. Native Chimes – 8. Gallant Ranger

Sunsphere

Sunsphere was a great run 1st up. Looked to hit a flat spot passing the the 500m but her last 200m and through the line she was really getting through her gears after picking back up again, her last 200m after looking gone at the top of the straight was the 2nd fastest of the race. Maps for an ideal run here leaders back, 1400m would have also been preferred but gets CJP and a lovely economical run. Top pick.

1.5 Units WIN

Gold Merits

Gold Merits and Gallant Ranger were similarly good runs out of the same race last start, the extra 100m probably suits Gold Merits more given he has run well up to the mile previously. Drawn sticky but will get back anyway and with the right run in transit can definitely win.

0.5 Units WIN

Race 4 – 2:24PM THOMPSON SURVEYING CONSULTANTS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

1. National Guard – 3. Wild Fusion – 2. Crescent City – 4. Tradem’ In

National Guard

National Guard the X factor runner after 8 weeks off from that absolute bolter of a run in the Mandurah Cup, hitting the line from last in an 11 flat final 200 section. 8 weeks between runs, 60kgs to lug and the mile 1st up are against, but I feel is the best horse in the race or will turn out to be at least. $9.00 currently some corps is just madness.

1 Unit WIN

Race 5 – 3:12PM MGIB SUPREMACY STAKES (1000 METRES)

8. Sentimental Belle – 7. Amelia’s Jewel – 3. Costume Party – 2. Pot Shot

Sentimental Belle

The debutants here, and what they have shown thus far at the trial really do look the part, particularly Amelia’s Jewel.

Her trial on the 21st Feb at Lark Hill was as professional a piece of work from a 2yo you will see. Travelled up beautifully just in behind the speed and once Carbery clicked her up she absolutely motored to the front and away from them under no riding. As brilliant as that piece of work was, with her Grand Final no doubt being the Karrakatta, do you want to take $2.25 about a 2 year old on debut that will get back to likely near last? I can’t get involved in that price myself.

Sentimental Belle was another that trialled up very nicely, looking very smart at her only hit-out at Lark Hill, easily dispatching Hear My Prayer under very light riding who was very good on debut behind Karrakatta fancy Saintorio. Draws to get a lovely run here for a powerful stable. The $6.50 appeals more from a betting perspective than the $2.25 Amelia’s Jewel.

*With Sentimental Belle scratched, units have been amended to 2 Units WIN Amelia’s Jewel if $3+ SP late, otherwise, not interested in the race from a betting perspective*

Race 6 – 3:55PM WILLIAM BARRETT & SONS VASE (1200 METRES)

7. Real Danger -1. How’s The Serenity – 5. Denim Pack – 11. Yemen Lass

Real Danger

Real Danger was very solid 1st up over the short course behind Spin The Knife. Went into that event without a trial, likely needing the run and had to cover a bit of extra distance. Thought his work through the line was particularly good (2nd fastest L200m of the race) and only goes up half a kilo in what I think is a much weaker race. 1200m is a tick, ran very well over the trip in a Placid Ark last prep and from barrier 2 Johnston Porter can hold up on the back of the speed.

2.5 Units WIN

Denim Pack

The value I think is actually Denim Pack. Thought he hit the line very well last start in a race with a tearaway leader and being slowly away ruled him out of being a factor in that event. Was the fastest L200 split and equal fastest L400 with Via Monte, gets down 2kgs in the weights and if Dhurun can find him some cover and a back to follow on straightening, he’s definitely got some claims.

0.5 Units WIN

If How’s The Serenity drew a gate I’d be all over her, but given she’s likely going to be favourite here and is very touch and go from a map perspective, I think we can look elsewhere. Champagne Dame finds the fence with Yemen Lass in the breeze. Southern Turf the fly in the ointment horse for How’s The Serenity. If the rank outsider kicks up, he can land 1-1 and hold out The Republican 3 deep who will roll forward from 9. If The Republican gets caught deep, that probably gives Holly and How’s The Serenity some 3 deep cover from barrier 11 if they follow The Republican across. If not, The Republican can probably find that box seat spot from the gate and leaves How’s The Serenity parked out deep, similar to the run she had 1st up.

Race 7 – 4:35PM TABTOUCH BUNBURY STAKES (1400 METRES)

2. Clairvoyance – 3. Hot Zed – 4. Coming Around – 7. The Spruiker

Race 8 – 5:12PM FURPHY BUNBURY CUP (2100 METRES)

5. Marocchino – 14. Utgard Loki – 11. The King – 4. Paddy’s Shadow

Marocchino

Marocchino was just a monstrous run in the Detonator Stakes. Drew 16 of 16, raced 3 and 4 deep without cover for the first 1000m before Whiting pressed her forward and got her going around them passing the 600m, that was an incredibly taxing run covering that amount of extra distance in the run off what was a more than genuine tempo, for him to still be there fighting out the finish was just massive. His past 2 runs have been superb, he’s very much back in form, he very clearly stays and gets nice little weight swings on a number of rivals here. From barrier 2, Whiting can ride him prominently just in behind the speed and think he is going to take some serious beating here.

2 Units WIN

A couple of other horses I wanted to touch on who I think are over the odds here are The King and Utgard Loki.

The King I thought was terrific in the Detonator at only his 2nd start in WA. Only beaten a length, will have taken plenty of improvement I would imagine out of that run and also gets a nice little weight swing in his favour on a number of rivals he faces here. He has got some proper, proper form back in Ireland over these longer trips and if he can get a little bit of luck here from barrier 9 in finding a spot, he can go to another level here 3rd up in WA at a far more suitable trip.

1 Unit WIN

Utgard Loki another I thought travelled into it ominously in the Detonator after getting shuffled back circumstantially at the 800, before Lucy was stopped in her tracks passing the 100m when the horse had built up a full head of steam. He begins really well so from barrier 3 Lucy should be able to find a lovely spot closer to the speed here with a smother. Only beaten 1.8L, drops 3.5kgs here on that run (gets a huge 6kg swing on Platoon, 4.5kgs on True Attraction) and is definitely over the odds to me here at $19.00.

1 Unit WIN

Race 9 – 5:42PM BUNBURY BRIGHTER HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

1. Serenity Bay – 4. Phoneme – 7. Buster Bash – 9. Bragwell

Serenity Bay

Serenity Bay was good in the Pinjarra Classic in a one act affair. Thought she hit the line quite nicely in amongst a clump of nice horses in The Spruiker, Hot Zed, Triple Missile and Eeyore Wayz. That form is definitely good enough to be taking this out, this is a very sharp step back in grade. If she can recapture anything close to her best form she’d just about be a moral here with form around Chantorque, Dig Deep, Inspirationa Girl just to name a few. She didn’t come up last prep but I think she’s shown some promising signs thus far on return, the apprentice on from the awkward gate however is the leveller and probably reduces how keen I am on her although she’ll still go on top for me.

1 Unit WIN

Phoneme had panels on the field he defeated last start in a sit/sprint affair. They went 12L slower than benchmark to the 600m there so he was entitled to hit the line strongly but in terms of figures his best still sit right at the top of this field. 1st up this prep ran 2nd to Vital Blast in a race where they went 7L faster than benchmark to the 600m and he was caught out deep without cover there, still finishing the race off in the 2nd fastest L400/200 splits. He’s very clearly a horse in form and this is far from a deep 66+, hardest to beat.

Staking Plan

• Race 3 Sunsphere 1.5 Units WIN/Gold Merits 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 4 National Guard 1 Unit WIN
• Race 5 Amelia’s Jewel 2 Units WIN IF $3.00+ SP late
• Race 6 Real Danger 2.5 Units WIN/Denim Pack 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 8 Marocchino 2 Units WIN/Utgard Loki 1 Unit WIN/The King 1 Unit WIN
• Race 9 Serenity Bay 1 Unit WIN

11 Units Staked, potential for 13 if Amelia’s Jewel drifts late to backable price in Race 5 (not likely).

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