FREE: Ascot Selections Saturday 7th January

Beautiful day for racing at Ascot with some strong SW winds 25-35km forecast through the afternoon before swinging SE in the evening and dropping off. Rail out 4m, track a Good 4.

Race 1 – 12:28PM MAGIC MILLIONS PLATE (1000 METRES)

3. More Special – 5. Kamaka – 2. If I Din Havadime – 4. Fine Line

Not an overly enthusiastic 2yo race to kick-off with.

More Special is a very fast filly, crossed hard to find breeze on debut behind Shell Bell (beating home If I Din Havadime) then last start found the top and was grabbed by very promising type Shaddow Fear, still able to leave very impressive winner Home James very flat-footed at the top of the straight. Drawn low again to lead and dictate, back to the 1000m absolutely a tick for her, hard to mount a real genuine case for anything around her unless you have been really taken by the trials of Kamaka who has a tricky little draw to contend with in the small field.

Kamaka has put together some nice trials, not sure where she gets to in running here with some good speed drawn underneath her, very well bred and looks to have some ability on what we’ve seen.

The favourite had If I Din Havadime’s measure last start and an even more favourable draw/set-up here but she’s been an honest conveyance in her 3 career starts to date so far and gets another very economical run here.

Race 2 – 1:08PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

4. On The Full – 1. He’s Gold – 6. The Lady Is A Vamp – 2. Sir Mambo

Thought the horses most likely to settle 1-2 in running here would both play the biggest part in the finish.

On The Full is a really intriguing runner, still a CL1 but has always flashed real potential in his short career to date. Tested in a 66+ last start, really well supported in betting there too from double figures into $5.50 SP, sat leaders back and didn’t get a great deal of room to build momentum in the straight. Blinkers go on here for the first time, back in grade to a Westspeed race, Laqdar likely lands in the breeze outside He’s Gold, really well backed in early markets, has far and away the most upside here in the field being so lightly raced. If he can get across He’s Gold, I think they’ll have some real trouble running him down.

He’s Gold is extremely well-placed. Gets into this Westspeed Platinum event with the same weight he carried in a 66+ 2 starts ago when more than holding his own after being posted 4 deep throughout when only beaten 2.8L Bitofmerit, and finishing around other horses the likes of Moi Choux, Hardly Ever and Rumour Says. Solid enough at 1200m last week when over a month between runs and held up at a crucial stage when just building into his work at the top of the straight. Gets here off the 7 days back to the 1000m and is already a winner off the quick spin back in his 2yo days at Listed level. Should be able to cross and lead for Taj, think he is going to give a very good showing of himself, just finds it very difficult to win and has been a long time between drinks. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View Our NEW Form Guide Here

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Race 3 – 1:48PM AMELIA PARK PLATE (1100 METRES)

8. Mia Gusto – 3. Invisible String – 6. Playthatfunkymusic – 2. Universal Playboy

Mia Gusto

Some proper speed influences engaged here should set up for a cracking tempo (Fiorucci Mama, Indie Ruler, Playthatfunkymusic, Universal Playboy). Big fan of the set-up here fresh for Adam Durrant’s filly Mia Gusto. Love what this filly did in her 1st preparation, she attacks the line and was a really impressive winner 1st up on debut before in her next victory, we saw her gun down very convincingly might I add a field that included Fly Away Home, Valsassina and Uncle Gerard, with form around Rejuva King from later in that prep as well. Thought in her recent trial she was just coiled up under CJP and went to the line like a horse that was ready to really let rip if asked the question, that trial was without the Blinkers, gets them on for the first time here in a race with speed drawn all across the line, Clint should be able to park midfield with cover and if they start paddling late, she has a ripping turn of acceleration on her to be able to get over the top of them late if she’s forward enough.

1.5 Units WIN

Invisible String

He’s flying this preparation, loved how much late ground he took off Universal Playboy after almost being detached completely from the field early and not getting a clean run at it in the straight, will get back and rattle home if they overdo things which I have a feeling they might with the speed engaged, real line-chaser, in form and happy to chop out.

0.5 Units WIN View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View Our NEW Form Guide Here

Race 4 – 2:26PM GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

4. Bitofmerit – 2. Beads – 5. Capital Flight – 1. Acromantula

This race, despite being one of, if not the race of the day, has greyed me right up.

Bitofmerit has the runs on the board and the form well and truly stacks up, and as a result I think warrants clear favouritism. The 1st up effort was dominant with the 59.5kgs, and the race has produced numerous subsequent winners and placegetters since. Ridden upside down up to 1200m last start with 60kgs and a very wide draw to contend with, the winner has posted an almost G1 level figure out of nowhere, he’s done a mountain of work and still run 2nd, certainly didn’t lose an admirer in me. Back to the 1000m, down in the weights, anticipate Lucy will get back from the draw and let it unfold, he’s the way I’ll side up without a great deal of confidence but the fact he and Capital Flight are drawn alongside each other both very sticky makes things all the more interesting.

Beads has enough in his favour here to turn the tables on Acromantula from last start. Should lob in the box-seat from the draw, gets a 2.5kgs swing on Acromantula who backs up off the 7 days out of a fast-run Summer Scorcher, he’s arguably the most consistent 1000m sprinter we have here in WA. If you go a little bit further back, he was beaten 0.3L Capital Flight with an apprentice in the saddle over the Belmont winter and gets a senior jockey back on here and a 1.5kg swing in his favour. Seems silly that he’s each way odds, but spruik more often than not trumps consistency from a market perspective and he looks destined to run into the money again.

Capital Flight is a horse I have a huge opinion of, just a very sticky set-up for him and the form through that 1st up victory just isn’t as strong as what some others bring to the table despite the old adage you can only beat what is put in front of you. Is certainly on the right trajectory to win a race like this, just a few indicators which we’ve touched on that put a couple of others ahead of him for me. Although lesser grade, interesting how many of the horses he has defeated on his journey to get to where he is have also crossed paths and been beaten very similar lengths by Bitofmerit, doubt there is much between the pair. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View Our NEW Form Guide Here

Race 5 -3:04PM TABTOUCH – BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

8. Goddess Of Giving – 1. Cheval De Vaga – 3. Time Scale – 7. Tadweer

Goddess Of Giving

Think this is a really high-quality filly Lou Luciani has under his care and cannot believe the price she is getting out to at the moment ($6.00 some places at the time of writing). Was the run of the meeting 1st up when savaging the line over 1000m in a walk/dash home, last start drew sticky, got a fair way off them, copped a decent hip and shoulder passing the 150m but was still able to balance up and gun Revitup and Sky Duke down. Revitup was a 78+ winner the start prior, and as a 3yo filly she gets into this 66+ from 3yo grade still on the minimum and although she doesn’t possess the greatest early speed, should enjoy a soft run here from 2 in a race with some really good speed influences ensuring a genuine tempo. Really good placement, with even luck I’m more than happy to be in her corner to win again. At the current price, think she’s comfortably my best of the program.

2.5 Units WIN

Cheval De Vaga the testing material I feel. Put in a huge effort fresh when beaten only Burnya To Survive who looks black-type quality, had the rest of that field covered by over 1.5L after setting a tempo almost 5L faster than average. Back to a 66+, run under the belt, how much work will he have to do to find the breeze with Magniforce and Time Scale drawn underneath?

Time Scale got a picnic in front last start when gunned down late by a horse coming through CL1 formlines albeit a nice, progressive type at that in Brave Venture, not sure she gets things as softly here but she’s always very tough.

Tadweer has had a mountain of support here from $9 into favouritism. Thought perhaps just doesn’t see out 1200m as well as he does the five furlongs, should enjoy another very soft run in transit again here. Won’t have many excuses.

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Race 6 – 3:40PM OWN THE DREAM REGISTRATIONS NOW OPEN HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

2. Big Screen – 7. Sentimental Hero – 6. Hardly Ever – 3. Megazone

Hardly Ever & Sentimental Hero both come through the same race behind the Velvet Queen and were both huge runs in their own right.

Hardly Ever was posted 3 wide throughout on a speed 6.5L faster than average and still loomed like she was going to have a big say in the finish, just such a big performance. Drawn a lot softer here, my queries with her being traffic problems if she does land 3 back the fence and whether you want to be catching Hardly Ever again at sub $3 this prep? Just not a horse I would be diving into at that price.

Sentimental Hero was cut out for any clear galloping room until passing the 150m before cutting them down two to their one late into 3rd, beaten only half a length TVQ and Casino Seventeen, all the more impressive being the fact he was 1st up and the race was run at such a genuine tempo. Always looked well above average at stages of a career that has been far from smooth sailing, with clear galloping room he’s going to be hard to hold out late and likely has Hardly Ever to his inside throughout.

Big Screen really intrigues me here. Since his last win, he’s been made to do a mountain of work from wide gates with other speed influences drawn underneath him. Drawn sticky on paper again, but there is no next to no other exposed speed engaged here, Louis should be able to waltz across to the top and control proceedings. When left alone, gee he’s hard to run down and I just can’t see where the pressure comes from here? At comfortable each-way, he’s the way I’ll side up from a tipping perspective.

Race 7 – 4:20PM OWN THE DREAM WIN $30K TOWARDS A RACEHORSE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

1. Weaponson – 6. My Boy Eddy – 5. Currimundi – 8. Category Three

Weaponson

For me clearly the hardest horse to beat here and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him roll and Taj lands in front or close enough to it here with the lack of speed on paper. Although a race run at very moderate fractions, customarily fought on well after being posted throughout last Saturday in the Mandurah Cup and both efforts before that in much better grade when 2nd Burnya To Survive and a really strong closer in a race dominated by those on speed by Halatorion read up super back into a 60+. Incredibly well-weighted after the claim, takes beating.

2 Units WIN

My Boy Eddy 

This ss a horse I have always had plenty of time for and off the strength of his two trials leading into this preparation, thought had come back a better horse than when we last saw him. CL3 at Pinjarra 1st up he looked to be absolutely bolting when on the bridle until he was passed the line, never even remotely saw daylight and backs up here off the 7 days, last prep in this grade ran 3rd beaten 2L Featherweight and 3rd hitting the line alongside Galactic Storm who looks a very nice horse. Drawn to stay out of trouble here, think he’s come back a better horse this time in and from an ideal draw, looks a nice each-way play in a very tricky little race.

1 Unit WIN

Race 8 – 4:55PM EASINGWOLD STAKES (1400 METRES)

1. Minsk Moment – 6. Bruce Almighty – 4. The Spruiker – 8. Flying Missile

Minsk Moment comes here a month between runs after a very good showing in The Gold Rush from barrier 16 of 16. Has always raced with success with his runs spaced, so anticipate the month between runs will be of no issue to him and he is the class runner of the field, having taken out the Carbine Club 1st run in WA before that. Doesn’t possess a great deal of early speed, been a bit of a trend lately I’ve noticed with well fancied horses in the market here in WA drawing inside or near enough to and really finding trouble getting clear when they need to, if he is a length slow away, how much traffic does he have in front of him? Nightmare scenario I think if a horse like Samizdat is his trail in a race that looks to lack tempo on paper. Has shown in the past he can more than sit handy, but has been tardy away at his last few. No value for me at the price despite going on top.

Bruce Almighty

Going to give a push at big odds here for Bruce Almighty. Only beaten 3L by the favourite here in the Carbine Club when drawing 10 of 12, being uncharacteristically slow away and settling back in the field against his usual pattern. Gets a 3.5kg swing on the favourite here and think if he begins on terms he can work to the breeze to sit outside the stablemate with ease. He’s very tough this horse, we’ve seen him win from the breeze in good races before and for mine he’s quite simply going far better than it reads on paper, is over the double the price Flying Missile who he beat home last start and gets 0.5kg in his favour for doing so. If he can lob in the breeze softly and that SW isn’t howling by the early evening, I think he’s in the game.

0.5 Units EACH WAY

Race 9 – 5:35PM MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

3. Stylax – 8. Kerman Rock – 5. Emerald Trader – 13. Patchwork

Tricky finish to end the day.

Stylax last two efforts at the 1800m at Ascot have been super. Two starts back was a good thing beat behind Ripon Falls when badly chopped out in the straight and then two starts before that, carried 60kgs from barrier 12 to victory in a CL3 in a race that rated through the roof. Loomed like he was going to go straight past them last start over the 2000m before just peaking on his run, back to 1800m is a huge tick and finds a race which should have really genuine tempo and allow Carbery to find a spot midfield or just worse than off the fence without being parked deep throughout. In a tough race to round out the program, he ticks a few boxes for me.

Kerman Rock’s last start was a remarkable win by 10.5L if you don’t mind when $26 into $8 late when running them into the ground 7L faster than CL1 average. Alan Kennedy has been aboard for both those career wins so very clear he gets along best with the horse. He hops off here but in substitution you get the best front-running apprentice in WA. You always have to ask yourself however after such a peak spike in performance for a horse whether they can reproduce?

Emerald Trader has real X factor this horse, still does plenty wrong but has a booming turn of foot and is a real line chaser. Steps up sharply in distance but gives me the feel that won’t worry him.

Patchwork was a very strong CL1 win last start at Pinjarra, this is deeper and has a sticky draw to contend with but for the new yard is going very well.

Staking Plan

• Race 3 Mia Gusto 1.5 Units WIN/Invisible String 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 5 Goddess Of Giving 2.5 Units WIN
• Race 7 Weaponson 2 Units WIN/My Boy Eddy 1 Unit WIN
• Race 8 Bruce Almighty 0.5 Units EACH WAY

8.5 Units Staked. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View Our NEW Form Guide Here