F1 Australian GP Preview: Will Ferrari & Mercedes Dominate?

It feels only a short time ago that the pit lane fell silent in Abu Dhabi, but the F1 paddock has arrived in Melbourne ready to do it all over again.

It’s an old cliché, but the hardest race of the year to predict is always the first race and this year is no exception, however the limited winter test period in modern day F1 coupled with the new rules for 2019 mean the F1 punter has limited information and so speculation, assumption and rumours are needed to fill the gaps.

History and Winter testing results tell us that, once again, this season is looking like a straight fight between the lead drivers of Mercedes and Ferrari, reigning champion Lewis Hamilton and 4 time winner Sebastian Vettel. Throughout the winter, the talk from the Mercedes camp is that the Ferrari is the quicker car and based on some of the race simulations completed in winter testing, the data would suggest that the prancing horse is somewhere in the region of 0.4s quicker than the Silver Arrows, but as we know, pre season test times are notoriously unreliable due to the large number of variables involved and also as teams try to hide their true pace from their rivals. There is also an assumption that Valterri Bottas will retain his ‘number 2’ status as will the talented Ferrari new boy Charles Le Clerc, allowing the ‘number 1’ drivers to fight it out for the championship.

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Whilst it is likely to be a two horse race, the midfield promises to be closer than ever. Red Bull’s days of challenging for the title look to be over as they complete their transition to Honda Power and cope with the loss of the extremely capable Daniel Ricciardo, who is replaced by Toro Rosso graduate Pierre Gasly. That said, Adrian Newey knows how to design a race car and despite the underwhelming power plant, we could see a good showing from Red Bull in the less power hungry tracks. Renault are the beneficiary of Ricciardo’s Red Bull departure and now field a strong driver line up alongside Nico Hulkenberg, and a reasonable winter test puts should see them towards the top end of the midfield, along with the ever promising Haas team, who all look to have closed the gap to the front runners slightly. Mclaren will hope the Renault Engine power will take them away from the bottom of the lap timing sheet however with Fernando Alonso’s retirement, they have lost one of the best drivers in the business, leaving the incoming Carlos Sainz with big shoes to fill.

The rest of the midfield is made from those who have had a more tumultuous winter period. Williams faced prolonged delays to their 2019 car, meaning they lost a lot of test time however with F1 rookie George Russell and the return of Robert Kubica, there will be no shortage of column inches dedicated to the Grove based team. Racing Point F1 arise from the financial ashes that was the Force India team. A strong car last year should put them in a good position, however the uncertain winter and the financial hangover may restrict them over the season.  Another ‘new’ team is the Alfa Romeo Racing team who, after one year as title sponsor have taken over the Sauber F1 Team branding. With Ex Ferrari racer Kimi Raikkonen joining the team and the continued use of Ferrari Power, Alfa will be hoping to repeat the performances of the 2018 Sauber and continue punching above their financial weight.

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The Melbourne circuit is fast, narrow and slippery, making it one of the more difficult tracks on the F1 calendar and when coupled with the limited running of these cars, it is inevitable that there will be some retirements, again making the predictions harder. It is expected that the top 3 steps will be shared between the Ferrari and Mercedes drivers but it is a bit of a lottery to suggest in what order they will appear. The last two years has shown Lewis Hamilton do the hard work on Saturday, only to watch Ferrari convert their race pace advantage into wins on the Sunday and is tipped to do the same again this year, adding to his Three existing Melbourne wins.

My predictions for the race would be

1st Vettel
2nd Hamilton
3rd Le Clerc

It is unfortunate that this article should end on a sombre note, however the passing of Charlie Whiting on the eve of the new season is more than worthy of mentioning. Charlie was a legend of the F1 world and possibly single handily the friendliest and most intimidating man I met during my time in F1. He had the perfect mix of authority and personality that made him the respected and admired person he was and there is no doubt that the F1 paddock will be worse off without the irreplaceable Charlie Whiting.

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