For the third time in 2025, a Canadian has won an ATP event. After Felix Auger-Aliassime of Montreal won the Adelaide International in January and the Open Occitanie in February, Toronto’s Denis Shapovalov won the Dallas Open on Sunday.
Shapovalov beat Norway’s Casper Ruud, 7-5, 6-3 in the final. In a surprise decision by the oddsmakers, it was Shapovalov who was the favourite at -150, compared to Ruud being at +120.
The reason why it was surprising that Ruud was favoured was because of four reasons. First, Ruud was the higher seeded player, as he was fifth in the world, while Shapovalov was 54th. Ruud has been to a grand slam final three times (lost the 2022 French Open, the 2022 United States Open, and the 2023 French Open), Ruud makes fewer mistakes during a typical match as Shapovalov has a history of making an influx of erratic unforced errors, and the fact that Shapovalov has never beaten Ruud before. In two prior meetings, Ruud beat Shapovalov in the final of Geneva in 2021, 7-6, 6-4, and the quarterfinals of Rome in 2022, 7-6, 7-5.
There were two reasons why Shapovalov could have been considered the favourite. The first was the surface. You put any Canadian in the last 20 years on an indoor hard court, and he or she will contend. Shapovalov’s two prior ATP titles came at the 2019 Stockholm Open and the 2024 Belgrade Open, both on an indoor hard court. The second reason was the fact that Shapovalov had a great run in Dallas leading up to the final. In addition to beating Ruud, Shapovalov upset the number one seed and 2024 United States Open finalist Taylor Fritz of the United States, 2-6, 6-3, 7-6 in the second round, the sixth seed Tomas Machac of the Czech Republic 7-6, 6-0 in the quarterfinals, and third seed and 2023 Australian Open semifinalist Tommy Paul of the United States 7-5, 6-3 in the semifinals.
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