Caulfield Cup: Every Runner Breakdown, Tips, and Predicted Finishing Order

The Caulfield Cup has produced another cracking field, and we have broken down why each runner can and can’t win, as well as their predicted finishing position below.

Not only have we broken down each runner’s chances, but we have also placed our best bet and value bet at the bottom of this article.

1. Vauban — 58.5kg — Midfield/back

Why he can win

Elite staying ceiling (RTG 116) and fourth-up set-up is perfect. SECT/SETUP solid: big Chelmsford return, then luckless in The Metrop when held up and still beaten ~1.3L — suggests a positive FSTR (late strength) when clear. Sticks to 2400m; handles pressure and any give.

Why he can’t

Needs to handle Caulfield’s tighter turns at speed and concede weight to progressive lightweights. If the race becomes a dash from the 400m, his turn of foot can be blunted.

Predicted finish: Top 4

2. Presage Nocturne — 57.5kg — Midfield

Why he can win

Proper European stayer; recent G2 Kergorlay third and G3 Barbeville win point to high SECT at 3,000m+. Tough grey who sustains from the 800m; maps soft from gate 8.

Why he can’t

This looks too sharp at 2400m; his best figures live 3,000–3,100m. MMOVE below key locals at this trip.

Predicted finish: First 8

3. Middle Earth — 56.5kg — Backmarker

Why he can win

First go beyond 2000m this prep; past wins at 2400–2850m say he’ll improve with distance. Turnbull run suggested “stout, try further” — SETUP trending up.

Why he can’t

Current Australian figures are a length or two off the top; needs a brutal tempo to bring his one-paced FSTR into play. Map risk from back.

Predicted finish: First 8

4. Meydaan — 56kg — Midfield/forward

Why he can win

Peak distance is 2400m; arriving off a G3 2410m third (60.5kg) behind Giavellotto — strong form. Balanced profile (SECT/FSTR) and perfect draw (5) limits MAP risk.

Why he can’t

Still light on the winning strike rate and faces a deeper field than UK G3s. Needs a clean lane to build; any mid-race squeeze exposes him.

Predicted finish: First 8

5. Absurde — 55.5kg — Midfield

Why he can win

Genuine stayer with a huge will — G3 Ormonde third to Illinois reads well. Versatile across tempos; proven to sustain a long run (good FSTR/SECT blend).

Why he can’t

Ratings trend slightly softer than prior Australian raids and now an 8-yo. Lacks the sharp 400–200m change of gears the winners typically show here.

Predicted finish: First 8

6. Land Legend — 55.5kg — Backmarker

Why he can win

Last year’s Metrop winner and Caulfield Cup 3rd shows the right race profile; can stay all day and is better as distances rise.

Why he can’t

Turnbull flop (never passed a runner) flags current FSTR below par; needs a dramatic bounce and tempo tailor-made.

Predicted finish: Rest

7. Zardozi — 54.5kg — Midfield

Why she can win

G1-class mare at her best; gets back to a suitable trip and blinkers on could lift MMOVE.

Why she can’t

Out of form this prep versus prior carnivals and +3.5kg on last year. SETUP/recency ratings below elite.

Predicted finish: Rest

8. Adelaide River — 54kg — On-pace/box-seat

Why he can win

G1 Irish Derby & Grand Prix de Paris runner-up (2023) and a 2400m G3 winner. Recent Kingston Town bob says he’s trending up; can control or stalk for low MAP risk.

Why he can’t

Hasn’t reproduced those 2023 peaks since; if pressure comes early he may be vulnerable late to stronger closers.

Predicted finish: First 8

9. Bankers Choice — 54kg — Leader/handy

Why he can win

Still racing honestly at 8; led and almost stole the Ansett Classic giving big weight. Loves 2400m; tactically versatile to grab the rail and measure fractions.

Why he can’t

Class wall at G1 level (0/10 placing once). If pressured mid-race, late FSTR drops away.

Predicted finish: Rest

10. Deakin — 54kg — On-pace/box-seat

Why he can win

Each run this prep has lifted (classic SETUP curve). Turnbull sixth was excellent — only WFA stars and the Cup fav went past from a box-seat. Best Aussie peak was fourth-up over this type of trip when bolting in (Moonee Valley 2500m). Low weight; maps sweetly.

Why he can’t

Not as proven at G1 depth; if they rip home sub-34, he may lack the last 200m sting versus the absolute A-graders.

Predicted finish: Top 4

11. Golden Snap — 53.5kg — Backmarker

Why she can win

Japanese stayer whose engine turns on beyond 2600–3000m; strong late return at 2600m suggests a big SECT/late FSTR if tempo is hot.

Why she can’t

Barrier 18 + likely tempo shape could strand her. Looks more Melbourne Cup than Caulfield Cup at 2400m.

Predicted finish: First 8

12. Revelare — 53.5kg — Midfield

Why he can win

Ultra-reliable strike-rate (8 from 12); Archer win rated well and he’s effective 2000–2500m. If tempo is controlled, his sustained grind holds.

Why he can’t

Bart Cummings exposed him at genuine G1 pressure; needs a soft mid-race and perfect run to measure up.

Predicted finish: Rest

13. River Of Stars — 53.5kg — Handy/midfield

Why she can win

European staying base (wins to 2900m) and good map from gate 4 to land forth/fifth with cover; can pinch lengths turning.

Why she can’t

Australian runs have been below expectations; current SECT/FSTR profile inferior to key chances.

Predicted finish: Rest

14. Birdman — 52.5kg — Midfield/back

Why he can win

Big Kingston Town win then solid in The Metrop. Carries a feather and owns a strong 600→200m build when the speed is genuine. Peaking for top camp.

Why he can’t

Needs the right cart into it and clean air; if they back it off mid-race, he can be left flat-footed.

Predicted finish: First 8

15. Half Yours — 52.5kg — Midfield

Why he can win

Profile horse. Dominant Naturalism (race-best late splits) then a flashing Turnbull run with race-best L600; proven at 2400m (Caloundra Cup by 4.5L). Huge SECT/MMOVE mix with a big weight swing vs WFA. Barrier 2 = minimal MAP risk.

Why he can’t

Traffic from the inside if the speed drops; needs off-back momentum, not dead-rails late.

Predicted finish: Win chance

16. Royal Supremacy — 52.5kg — Midfield

Why he can win

Fresh G1 winner of The Metrop, running away late off a brutal tempo — perfect FSTR/SECT signal. Progressive profile with another step likely; draws to tag a similar lane.

Why he can’t

Up in weight and depth; needs another PB to beat Half Yours + internationals at their top.

Predicted finish: Win chance

17. Valiant King — 52kg — Backmarker

Why he can win

Blinkers sparked a big PB in The Bart Cummings, savaging the line off a brutal tempo. Loves a high-pressure 2400–2500m and carries nothing.

Why he can’t

Backmarker map at Caulfield is always risky. Needs the screws turned from the 1200m to replicate that late surge.

Predicted finish: First 8

18. Plymouth — 51kg — Handy/midfield (wide)

Why he can win

Herbert Power runner-up over this track/trip; light weight and honest late splits. Can hold a spot and give a sight.

Why he can’t

Gate 17 and a steep class rise. Likely to be out-kicked by stronger G1 closers.

Predicted finish: Rest

Predicted finishing order

1. Half Yours

2. Royal Supremacy

3. Vauban

4. Deakin

5. Meydaan

6. Adelaide River

7. Birdman

8. Valiant King
   Next best: Presage Nocturne, Middle Earth, Golden Snap, Absurde, Plymouth, River Of Stars, Land Legend, Revelare, Bankers Choice, Zardozi

Best Bet: Half Yours
Value Bet: Deakin / Royal Supremacy