Broncos @ Jets: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

Week three showed a nice, healthy profit despite our player props being killed by injuries and some bad luck. Diontae Johnson was going to cruise to his number before leaving the game with a concussion. The Patriots had three short touchdown runs – where Cam Newton has been killing it all season – and they all went to Rex Burkhead. So what could have been a great week was just a good one but we move onto week four and build on what was still a successful week three.

Now we have Thursday night football as the injury ravaged Broncos head to New York to face the Jets. Usually I would be questioning how a team as bad as the Jets right now could be favourites but the injury report for the Broncos tells the whole story. Even then, the standard of play from New York has been so bad that I just can’t back them against any team.

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Unknown quantity at QB for Denver

Second year quarterback Brett Rypien will be in for Denver after getting his first taste of the NFL a week ago. He completed 8 of 9 with the one other pass being an interception for 53 yards. But he does not fill you with confidence in either himself or the players he is throwing to. Tight ends tend to be a safety blanket for young quarterbacks and Noah Fant feels one of the few Denver players you can expect anything much from.

Jets offence is miserable

For the Jets, Sam Darnold has been really, really bad. The offensive line is no better than a year ago and he is constantly under pressure and his weapons have been down to a bunch of WR3s or unknowns. 37-year-old Frank Gore still rushing it 20 times a game for any team is a bad sign and Adam Gase’s offence is a mess right now.

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Where it will be won

Where this game could be won is defence and run game and that is where Denver have big advantages. Melvin Gordon has got off to a solid, but unspectacular start for the Broncos but this could be his week against the 24^th ranked rush defence. And even if Denver can’t put up a ton of points themselves, their defence is ranked 12^th in points allowed up against the absolute worst scoring offence in the league.

I do not expect lots of points because these offences just aren’t built for it right now, but Denver can grind out the win in what could be the beginning of the end for Gase in New York.

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Our Picks

• 1 unit Broncos +2 1.86 with TopSport
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