The official team lists are in for Rabbitohs vs Warriors, with South Sydney naming Latrell Mitchell among the reserves, while the Warriors lose Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad to suspension and Luke Metcalf to a hamstring injury. Those changes create several strong anytime try scorer and player-prop angles for punters.
Biggest Winners – Rabbitohs
Alex Johnston
Johnston remains on South Sydney’s left wing with Cody Walker directing the attack. With the Warriors forced to change both their fullback and halves combination, he’s the Rabbitohs finisher I’d target first.
Our Tip: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
Cody Walker
Metcalf and Nicoll-Klokstad being unavailable leaves the Warriors without two important members of their spine. Walker has Johnston, Campbell Graham, Jack Wighton and David Fifita as attacking targets.
Our Tip: Cody Walker – 1+ Try Assist
David Fifita
Fifita retains his starting back-row position and gives South Sydney a powerful close-range option. His combination with Walker makes him particularly interesting near the Warriors’ line.
Our Tip: David Fifita – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Losers – Rabbitohs
Adam Elliott
Elliott has been ruled out with a groin injury, with Euan Aitken promoted into the starting second row.
Our Tip: Euan Aitken – Over Tackles
Latrell Mitchell
Mitchell has been named among the extended reserves as he pushes to return after 11 games out with nerve issues in his lower back affecting his leg and calf.
Betting impact: Avoid committing to South Sydney fullback props too early. If Mitchell is elevated, it would materially change the Rabbitohs’ attacking markets.
Rabbitohs Edge Defence
The Warriors still have two dangerous finishers in Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Alofiana Khan-Pereira despite their spine changes.
Our Tip: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Winners – Warriors
Taine Tuaupiki
Nicoll-Klokstad’s two-game suspension hands Tuaupiki the starting fullback role. That should significantly increase his carries, kick returns and attacking involvement.
Our Tip: Taine Tuaupiki – Over Run Metres
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
DWZ retains his place on the right wing and remains one of the Warriors’ best finishing options despite the changes inside him.
Our Tip: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – Anytime Try Scorer
Chanel Harris-Tavita
Metcalf’s hamstring injury sees Harris-Tavita shift to halfback, where he’ll carry considerably more responsibility for directing the Warriors around the field.
Our Tip: Chanel Harris-Tavita – 1+ Try Assist
Biggest Losers – Warriors
Luke Metcalf
Metcalf is sidelined with a hamstring injury after playing such an important attacking role in recent weeks. His absence forces Harris-Tavita to No.7 and brings Luke Hanson into the side at five-eighth.
Betting impact: This is a significant downgrade to the Warriors’ established halves combination and makes their attacking props less straightforward.
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
CNK begins a two-game suspension for a hip-drop tackle, with Tuaupiki replacing him at fullback.
Our Tip: Taine Tuaupiki – Over Run Metres
Luke Hanson
Hanson comes into five-eighth for just his second NRL appearance, having debuted in Round 3. That’s a major assignment against a Rabbitohs side chasing a third consecutive win.
Betting impact: Rather than targeting Hanson individually, I’d look towards the Warriors’ established outside backs and Harris-Tavita.
Early Betting Verdict
This is an interesting team-list matchup because the Warriors remain third and have been one of the competition’s strongest sides, but their Metcalf-Harris-Tavita-CNK spine has been heavily disrupted. South Sydney, meanwhile, have won consecutive games and remain undefeated at Accor Stadium this season.
Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
The Warriors’ reshuffled spine is the angle, while Johnston remains outside a South Sydney attack directed by Walker.
Our Tip: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
David Fifita – Anytime Try Scorer
Fifita gives the Rabbitohs a powerful option close to the line and could be particularly dangerous running off Walker.
Our Tip: David Fifita – Anytime Try Scorer
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – Anytime Try Scorer
Despite the Warriors’ changes, DWZ remains their established right-wing finisher and gives us a cleaner try-scoring option than backing one of the new spine members.
Our Tip: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak – Anytime Try Scorer
Cody Walker – Try Assists
Walker faces a Warriors side without its regular fullback and halfback combination. If South Sydney capitalise, he should be at the centre of their attacking opportunities.
Our Tip: Cody Walker – 1+ Try Assist
Taine Tuaupiki – Run Metres
The move to fullback should provide Tuaupiki with plenty of kick-return and early-set carries.
Our Tip: Taine Tuaupiki – Over Run Metres
Cameron Murray – Tackles
Murray remains at lock and captains South Sydney against a Warriors pack featuring James Fisher-Harris, Mitchell Barnett and Erin Clark.
Our Tip: Cameron Murray – Over Tackles
Best Bet From The Team Lists
Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
The Warriors have conceded just 15 points per game on average this season, so this isn’t simply a bet against a poor defence. The attraction comes from the disruption created by losing both CNK and Metcalf from their spine.
Johnston remains South Sydney’s premier finisher, and with Walker still controlling the Rabbitohs’ attack, he’s the player I’d back to capitalise.
Our Tip: Alex Johnston – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet
David Fifita – Anytime Try Scorer
Fifita provides a better-priced alternative to the Rabbitohs’ outside backs and has the power to score without needing a clean overlap. With Walker operating inside him, he’s the South Sydney forward I’d target close to the line.
Our Tip: David Fifita – Anytime Try Scorer
