Belmont Tip Sheet, Staking Plan and Horses To Follow – Saturday 26th September

Ripper Belmont meet to sink our teeth into with the newly named Black Heart Bart Stakes the highlight. The rail is in the true position while the track looks to start the day a good 4 with some decent rain forecast at this stage for Saturday, with the potential to downgrade to a soft 5 throughout the day if the heavens open. Light winds shouldn’t impact the racing.

• Our WA Tipping Results Results: +11.7 Units (since 01/07/2020)

Race 1 – 12:18PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM MAIDEN (1200m)

11. Wednesday – 10. Rubychino – 4. Devil’s Dust – 2. I Am Groot

Race 2 – 12:57PM AMELIA PARK PLATE (1000m)

6. Friday Knight – 1. Gemma’s Son – 4. Dunbar – 3. Brooklyn Pier

Friday Knight

Big spruiker from the Gangemi’s I touched on, on debut. Was slow away from a wide gate and back last in a race dominated by those on-speed and although very green in doing it, rattled home late in the fastest L600/400/200m splits of the race and fastest L200 of the entire meeting. To do that on debut is seriously impressive work. In a 6 horse field here, if he jumps with them, should be able to position up within striking distance and with the amount of speed engaged, keen he is the one running over the top of them late with the turn of foot he possesses. Has the race fitness on his side to the other dangers Gemma’s Son, who comes here 1st up no trial and Dunbar, who would need to improve many lengths from last prep to feature here. 1200m would’ve been keen to unload but still fell there is a nice enough set-up here to make his presence felt.

2 Units WIN

Race 3 – 1:37PM GLENROY CHAFF PLATE (1400m)

6. Type Won – 4. Precautionary – 5. Chiclett – 1. Off Wego

Type Won

Great run last start. Sat OSL over the 1200m and stuck on really well in the straight, only swamped in the last stride by Indigo Blue and held out the very talented Dom To Shoot, SP’d $51. If she can repeat the dose here, she gets an even more favourable set-up, likely to just amble to the front and control proceedings. 1400m an untried commodity but at the $8.00 on offer, happy to have something on. Great front-running jockey booked too also a tick.

1.2 Units WIN

Precautionary

Really solid 1st up run by Precautionary in the same form race. Was held up for a run briefly at the top of the straight but absolutely loved the way she hit the line. Will have taken plenty out of that run and maps to get a lovely cushy run in behind the leader here. Up to 1400m should suit and an easy 2 horse play here for me at current prices.

0.8 Units WIN

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Race 4 – 2:17PM SEACORP HANDICAP (2000m)

2. Mackenzie Brooke – 5. Leading Girl – 7. Paddy’s Shadow – 3. Gunnago

Mackenzie Brooke

Terrific 1st up run this prep for what I think is a very good staying horse in Mackenzie Brooke. Went straight to the staying trip off the back of 2 trials at 2200m, where she settled midfield in the run, gave the form stayer of the state Montelena a lovely toe into the race off a very slow tempo, and was almost strong enough late to hold her off, going down 0.5L. Will have taken huge benefit out of that run coming here 2nd up and should be able to position up a bit closer in the run with the lack of speed engaged outside Abeldane. No knocks on the favourite, but first crack at the staying trip and likely being back last in the run? $1.75? Gladly take that on. Gets a nice little 1.5kg drop on that 1st up run too, I’m pretty keen at the $6.00 available.

2 Units WIN

Race 5 – 2:53PM VALE KEITH WATSON HANDICAP (1600m)

5. Utgard Loki – 2. Money Matters – 7. Mrs Brown’s Boy – 1. Harry Thomas

Utgard Loki

Has put in 2 very good runs for different reasons to start the prep and gets a really nice set-up here out to a much more suitable distance of 1600m. Last start over 1200m, with 60kgs, finished off really well in a slowly run race behind Why Choose Her and Nerodio, with the winner of that race running well last week at Listed level. There is an abundance of speed engaged here, and there is gonna be a real scrap for the top, with Utgard Loki able to sit back midfield/worse than midfield with cover and watch it all unfold. Warwick should be able to peel him into the race on the turn and up in trip, with a 2.5kg weight swing in his favour, 3rd up, he’s going to be really hard to hold out.

No knocks the fav Money Matters, just cant get on-board with taking the $2.20 jumping from 1200m-1600m on the 7 day back-up, and didn’t exactly like how those from behind him last week were picking ground up off him late, good horse but risking.

1 Unit WIN

Race 6 – 3:29PM VALE NINO BURATOVIC HANDICAP (1600m)

8. Moderator – 4. Come Right Back – 10. Butterlea Lad – 6. Chatter Session

Race 7 – 4:08PM IRON JACK HANDICAP (1200m)

4. Cliffs Of Comfort – 3. Long Beach – 11. Ration Aly – 10. Puli

What a race.

Cliffs of Comfort

As painful a watch as it was, absolutely enormous last start when leading throughout in the Nicopolis Stakes to be grabbed in the final stride in a photo by a very good one. Enormous, due to the fact it was a day where you did not want to be leading as you were pushing into a hurricane-like headwind, only leader who got remotely close to winning for the day, horse is on a big upward spiral. Loyalty may bring about my demise but, if he continues to trend upwards, and the run last weekend didn’t bust him off the 7 day back-up, I feel he gets a great set-up again to win here. Incredibly well weighted against these (2.5kgs more than Puli, who he is simply a much better horse than for example) and will be able to lead again without too much pestering, with Puli I anticipate more than happy to just sit outside him breezing. From there, I am convinced he is a future top liner, and is very hard to run down. Sticking fat.

Long Beach is a super horse, and definitely can win, but likely finds himself 3 back the fence and needing the splits to come in the straight, a risk at $2.30 which it currently sits at but easily the main danger here, has a brilliant turn of foot, potentially looking at a Winterbottom prep if he wins again here. Eeyore Wayz going super, just not sure 1200m is his distance, has been sprinting well off very fast tempos which he wont get here and up in trip don’t think this will suit him, opposing as a result. Ration Aly can definitely make his presence felt with the 51kgs but not sure he is an apprentices horse when likely back last with horses that I feel have a better turn of foot (or just as sharp) in-front of him, this is much deeper than what he has faced thus far in his picket fence prep.

2 Units WIN

Race 8 – 4:45PM BLACK HEART BART STAKES (1200m)

1. Vital Silver – 2. Free Trade – 6. Red Can Man – 7. Floyd

The feature, again, what an effing race!

Vital Silver

This race was incredibly difficult to dissect, given the star quality that come from a whole range of different formlines, but I simply cannot go past the 1st up effort of Vital Silver leading into this. 1st up no trial, 62kgs, pulled hard in the run and was still right there in the finish of the Jolly Beggar stakes, finishing half a length behind Money Matters, who was race fit and giving him 4.5kgs. Loved the way he looked to hit a flat spot with the big weight with about 300m to go, before really kicking into gear late and savaging the line. Maps to get a very cushy run here just in behind the speed from gate 4, gets in far better at the weights, will have taken plenty out of the 1st up hit-out and can return to the G1 heights he has shown previously here on the way to the Winterbottom.

1.5 Units WIN

Race 9 – 5:20PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1200m)

8. Expressionist – 4. Lucky Linda Lulu – 5. Point Taken – 1. Rebel Knight

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Staking Plan

Race 2 Friday Knight 2 Units WIN

Race 3 Type Won 1.2 Units WIN/Precautionary 0.8 Units WIN

Race 4 Mackenzie Brooke 2 Units WIN

Race 5 Utgard Loki 1 Unit WIN

Race 7 Cliffs Of Comfort 2 Units WIN

Race 8 Vital Silver 1.5 Units WIN

10.5 Units Staked

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