Belmont Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 28th August

No real interest from me today after a massive weekend result. Looking towards Saturday, very trappy/lacklustre midweek meeting that wouldn’t look out of place at the provincials.

Race 1 – 11:18AM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

3. Bella’s Idol – 2. Montelena – 4. Zaratite – 5. Purist

Race 2 – 11:57PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

5. Giant Leap – 1. Cockney Crew – 7. Nobel Laurence – 2. Bad Wolf

Giant Leap

Thought Giant Leap was really unlucky last start behind Notorious One when never really getting into clear air. Steps up to the mile here in a race that really lacks speed outside the leader Cockney Crew who will be up top bowling along. That considered, expecting Pike to roll him forward to sit in that first pair back. Cockney Crew I feel may be lacking a bit of conditioning late being 1st up at the mile without his customary trials, and Giant Leap on the minimum with what looks a lovely run in transit can be the one asking all the right questions late.

1.5 Units WIN

Race 3 – 12:37PM VALE NEIL CAYLEY PLATE (1000 METRES)

9. Harmika – 2. Policiere – 5. Prince Ragnar – 7. Story Book

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Race 4 – 1:17PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

3. Gunmetal Grey – 2. Apple Schnapps – 7. Carabinier – 1. Ohbeeh

Gunmetal Grey

Have been waiting for her to get back onto a good deck this prep, because she isn’t a wet tracker despite running very well on 3 very wet tracks at her first 3 runs this prep. This is the best placed horse on the card for me. Finds a very weak race and only carries 1kg extra than she did last start in an infinitely stronger 60+, the main dangers are genuine wet trackers, the bottom 4 can’t win and when you look at his form on good tracks from last prep when pushing horses the likes of Graceful Girl, Hot Zed and Nobel Laurence, that sort of form would walk in in this field. The awkward draw doesn’t really deter me in terms of what Parnham opts to do, whether that be roll forward or snag back, as I think she’ll prove too good for these regardless, really keen.

4 Units WIN

Race 5 – 1:57PM SEACORP HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

7. The Invisible Man – 1. Blazing Billy – 2. Jag The Joker – 4. Requisition

Race 6 – 2:33PM PENINSULA DINING ROOM HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

9. Red Dwarf – 7. Overthought – 1. Salon Du Cheval – 10. Mass Effect

Red Dwarf

Initially wasn’t overly keen on getting involved here but when prices went up this morning I wasn’t expecting to see $9 go up for Red Dwarf. Comes out of a really high-rating 2100m race when 3rd behind Axel R Eight run almost 8L faster than benchmark. That day he’s come home in clearly the race fastest last 6/4/200 splits after covering extra distance in the run, drops 3kgs for his trouble and gets a really nice cushy draw from 4 for Azzopardi to potentially even sit a pair closer here with some cover. He’s a very lightly raced 6 year old and for me just has the most upside out of all of these who have no doubt already reached their peak. The price has gone now, but am happy to invest at anything over that $7 mark and think money will come for others in this wide open field so you should see it.

1 Unit WIN @ $7+ SP

Overthought

Want to have something on Overthought here also. She’s absolutely flying and does her best racing on-top of the ground. Should get a lovely smother from the barrier for Boy Hill and has already been the subject of early support but think you’ll see that price drift back out a fraction.

1 Unit WIN

Race 7 – 3:15PM CROWN TOWERS HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

4. Brave Dream – 2. Mr Delegator – 1. Red Hot Tip – 5. Beat The Bell

Race 8 – 3:50PM IDYLLIC PRINCE STAKES (1300 METRES)

4. Samizdat – 2. Too Close The Sun – 6. Tellem We’re Comin – 1. Neufbosc

Samizdat

The $3 doesn’t leave much meat on the bone but I cannot believe Samizdat isn’t favourite in this. Up in trip, race fitness under his belt after that electrifying fresh win, the stable have said that he’s only gotten much better since that run and have forecast a Melbourne spring campaign for him after this event. There isn’t much speed here but if he isn’t spotting them a huge number of lengths on straightening he should just prove too sharp a sprinter for these once again. Hope we see a drift so we can get involved but I can’t see what else the big money will come for.

2 Units WIN @ $3.40+ SP

Race 9 – 4:25PM IRISNDT HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

5. Kaptain Kaos – 2. Cliffs Of Comfort – 9. Reign Of Fire – 11. Our Danni

Kaptain Kaos

This really progressive, talented horse again looks really hard to beat in what for me is the best race of the day. To win from where he did fresh, with no lead in trials, was extraordinary. Gets Chris Parnham back on, gets that burst of race fitness under his belt, and you’d think there may be some bigger and better things on the horizon for him moving forward. There isn’t a lot of speed here outside the leader, with some luck Parnham can sit him closer in running and yeah, he just looks like he is going to repeat the dose. The current $2.30 is just under my betting price (took the $2.70 on offer earlier in the week) but am happy to blast out at anything upwards of $2.40.

4 Units WIN @ $2.40+ SP

If on-speed is no disadvantage by this stage of the day, then Cliffs Of Comfort with the run under his belt and a really soft lead even from the gate, is going to be in it for a very long way.
Flawless 2nd up record, walks to the front and will definitely give you a massive sight, the weight for me the only query from being even stronger opposition for the favourite. Worth something on if its favouring those up front in running.

Staking Plan

Race 2 Giant Leap 1.5 Units WIN

Race 4 Gunmetal Grey 4 Units WIN

Race 6 Red Dwarf 1 Unit WIN @ $7.00+ SP/Overthought 1 Unit WIN

Race 8 Samizdat 2 Units WIN @ $3.40+ SP

Race 9 Kaptain Kaos 4 Units WIN @$2.40+ SP

6.5 Units confirmed, potential for 13.5 if we see our prices prior to jump.

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